USL Odds, November 2
Playoffs? We're talking playoffs.
It’s playoff time in USL Championship and USL1, the thrilling conclusion to the 2024 seasons is upon us. 16 teams in USLC and 8 in USL1de will each be vying for the league’s highest honor by the end of the month, and I am looking forward to the drama and an excitement that is to come.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet. With each bet, I will say who I think will advance in the tie, and then provide another bet option. Feel free to pick my predicted match advancing team along with my bet suggestion, just know my suggested bet odds will not include an advancing team for those odds.
If you are looking for simply picking the team to advance, “To Qualify” is the bet to do. The typical 3-way ML bets will only apply to the 90’ originally played, not any potential outcomes past 90’. Odds shown on games at the top of the match are for moneyline in 90’.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, November 1st.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Charleston win or tie, over 2.5 goals (1.75), North Carolina v Las Vegas BTTS, over 2.5 goals (1.86), Pittsburgh to win, under 3.5 goals (2.00), Louisville to win and over 2.5 goals (2.37), Memphis to win (2.80), Orange County v Hartford BTTS (1.66), Omaha -1.5 (1.80), Greenville win or tie, over 2.5 goals (1.90), Over 2.5 goals (1.57)
Parlay: Louisville to win, Pittsburgh v El Paso under 3.5 goals, Orange County v Hartford BTTS (3.22)
Indiana -5.5 (1.90), Ohio State ML and under 48.5 points (1.94), Memphis ML and over 57.5 points, Cowboys at 49ers over 47 points (1.90), Tyler Reddick top five (2.25), Denny Hamlin top ten (1.52), Leclerc podium finish (1.40), Both Mercedes cars top six finish (2.25)
Parlay: Lions, Bills, Chiefs, Steelers all to win (3.11), Lawson over Tsunoda and Colapinto over Albon h2h (no odds, but this bet would have cashed on lap one)
Elo Ratings
Green represents a playoff team.
USL Championship
Friday
#4 Las Vegas v #5 Sacramento
2.25 - 3.10 - 3.00
This is such an odd sight to see, it was unlike Sacramento to tumble from hosting a playoff game, to sitting in the #5 seed in the West come playoff time. Especially strange since their hosts are Las Vegas, a team by all accounts, as surprising as anyone to be hosting a playoff game this season—the USL Show preseason predictions had Las Vegas in #11. However, while Sacramento were the third best team in the West away from home this year, what worries me is that Republic enter this match with just one win in their last eight games and lost both meetings with Las Vegas this season. The Elo ratings for much of the Western Conference is quite close together making all of these first round matchups tough to call. I do think the winner of this match has a very good dark horse chance at reaching the Western Conference final though.
Advance: Las Vegas
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.50)
Saturday
#3 Memphis v #6 Orange County
1.57 - 3.80 - 5.00
This match might be the underrated tie of the round for the West, as it features the conferences’ two in-form teams entering the postseason. Orange County have not lost in their previous eight games while Memphis are unbeaten in their last four. It was Orange County who won both meetings between these sides in season, but this fixture historically has been high-scoring. Holding this game so early on a Saturday as well will make the travel tough for Orange County, who were the 10th best team in the West away from home this season. However, Memphis has not beaten Orange County ever in their club history and will need to reverse that historical trend to advance in this match.
Advance: Orange County
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.40)
#2 Charleston v #7 Pittsburgh
1.72 - 3.10 - 4.10
Never underestimate Bob Lilley, and he has the Pittsburgh Riverhounds entering this match winners of their last four games and just one loss in their last 16 games. Pittsburgh also were able to keep Charleston scoreless on the season in their two meetings, posting a win and a draw vs the Battery. Charleston at home however has been an incredibly different team with just one defeat on the year. This Battery side still finds ways to score at home as they have yet to be shutout in a home games this season. The East’s best defense opposing them is a mighty tough challenge though that I think just one or two goals might be all that is scored in this one.
Advance: Charleston
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.90)
#3 Detroit v #6 Tampa Bay
2.55 - 3.30 - 2.45
A home match at Keyworth will truly be a sight to behold this weekend as one of the league’s best grounds will play host to one of the most notable fixtures in Detroit’s history. Detroit enter this game carrying the East’s longest unbeaten run of nine games into the postseason, and they have not lost at home since August. Tampa Bay has had to face a lot adversity of travel in recent weeks due to Hurricane Milton, but ended the regular season with a win against Indy Eleven in pretty impressive 3-0 fashion, showing they remain ever a dangerous team on their day. Detroit’s form, in my opinion, has been more impressive of these two clubs at the moment and it should carry them through to the next round, but don’t expect Tampa Bay to make things easy.
Advance: Detroit
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.95)
#1 Louisville v #8 North Carolina
1.50 - 4.20 - 5.00
Shield winners Louisville are back atop the the Eastern Conference for the first time since 2022. While it has become somewhat of a meme to say ‘Death, Taxes, Louisville in the Eastern Conference Final’, it is a streak that I see this team continuing, and to start, they play a North Carolina FC team who clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the season. Louisville lost just one match at home all season, NCFC with just four wins away from home on the year. While the visitors enter this match with four wins from their last five, this is the best ever Louisville City team in club history and I see them advancing.
Advance: Louisville
Bet: Louisville -1.5 (2.375)
#2 Colorado Springs v #7 Oakland
1.55 - 3.70 - 5.25
As established above in my Elo ratings, Oakland are one of the lowest rated playoff teams per my Elo ratings in league history. While all of the teams in the West bar Orange County and Memphis, enter the postseason on somewhat rocky form, the Switchbacks were the second best team in the West this season when playing at home, and were shutout at home on just two occasions. Oakland meanwhile enter the postseason with just one win in their last eight games, and were shutout in six of those games. Form and home field advantage is incredibly important for the postseason. Hard to see Colorado Springs falling in the first round.
Advance: Colorado Springs
Bet: Colorado Springs to score first (1.40), Colorado Springs to win and score more than 1 goal (2.00)
#4 Indy Eleven v #5 Rhode Island
2.20 - 3.40 - 2.80
This match in my opinion simply has goals written all over it, who can forget these two team’s thrilling 3-3 draw from July 5th earlier this year? Indy Eleven hosting this game have gone unbeaten in their last five home games, despite their middle of the table performance at home this season compared to the rest of the East. Rhode Island meanwhile has just two defeats in their last ten games, and are just off the back of a stunning 8 goal performance against Miami to win their final game of the regular season (it’s Miami, but 8 goals in a single game is quite the confidence boost to enter the postseason on a high). Let’s push for an exciting game once more and pick over 3.5 goals, something these two teams have seen a combined 50% of the time in their each six final games of the regular season. But I think it will ultimately be Rhode Island get the advancement from this match.
Advance: Rhode Island
Bet: BTTS, Over 3.5 goals (3.00)
#1 New Mexico v #8 Phoenix
2.05 - 3.20 - 3.30
Is it time to say I have been genuinely concerned for New Mexico’s form entering the postseason? While the club undoubtedly had a tremendous season to clinch the #1 seed in the Western Conference this year, the side feels bolstered by their consistent success at the start of the season that is making up for their lackluster play towards the end. NMU enter the playoffs with no wins in their last five games, tied for the worst five game form of any playoff team with Sacramento. Phoenix on the other hand had to pick up six points in their last four games to just see themselves over the line into #8 and three of those points included a win over New Mexico in this stadium back on October 9th. This game might be much closer in reality than the seeding is making these two teams out to be. You could find good value in the Phoenix upset pick on this one.
Advance: Phoenix
Bet: Phoenix to win (3.30)
USL1
Saturday
#4 Greenville v #5 Knoxville
2.30 - 3.00 - 2.87
Knoxville have been on a surprising run of form to enter the postseason, with just one defeat over their last 17 games across all competitions to end the season—a run of games dating back to June 29th. Greenville though, enters the postseason with the more immediate level of success, with three wins from their last four games (weird defeat to Fuego FC aside). This Triumph team have been scoring loads of goals lately, 17 goals in their last six games, while Knoxville has been more low-scoring lately, just four goals scored in the same time. If Greenville score first, that might be enough to see them to advance, but the longer the game goes on and Knoxville are able to keep Greenville out of the back of the net, the better chance I give them to advance.
Advance: Knoxville
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.72)
#2 Northern Colorado v #7 Spokane
1.50 - 4.20 - 4.75
This might be the most lopsided playoff matchup, in both leagues, of the weekend. Northern Colorado, your Jagermeister Cup champions, clinched the #2 seed in the league with a win over Madison last week, extending their winning streak to five in a row. Spokane on the other hand, enter the playoffs with no wins in their last seven games, getting shutout in six of those games. Spokane are the only USL1 playoff team with no wins in any of their last five games entering the postseason.
Advance: Northern Colorado
Bet: Northern Colorado -1 (1.90)
#3 Madison v #6 Charlotte
1.80 - 3.10 - 4.20
Charlotte’s form entering the playoffs, win on the final day of the regular season aside, has been lacking. The Independence, have just one win in their final eight games played across all competitions, and when their opponents in Madison have just one defeat in their last 14 games across all competitions, that is very tough to overcome. I will say though, in USL1 play, Charlotte has just one defeat away from home while Madison has lost just one league match at home all season. This is my most anticipated USL1 match of the first round.
Advance: Madison
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (2.07)
Sunday
#1 Omaha v #8 Richmond
No odds as of writing
Winners of three of the last four USL1 players’ shields, Omaha are back in the #1 seed of the league once more. This Omaha team enter the postseason with an unbeaten streak of seven games, and have won six of those contests. However, it was Richmond who were the last team to keep Omaha scoreless, as the two played out a 0-0 draw on October 5th. The Kickers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2022—Richmond are the team who interrupted Omaha’s run of a possible four consecutive shields—and will be looking to make it an extended stay as Richmond still have not won a USL1 playoff match since the league’s inception in 2019. 2014 in USL Pro, when #4 Richmond beat #5 Charleston AET in the league quarterfinals was the last playoff match the Kickers had won. Unfortunately for the Richmond fanbase, I see that playoff match victory drought continuing another season.
Advance: Omaha
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
My Pre-Playoff Full Bracket Predictions
Just wanted to get a full bracket prediction out there before the postseason began:
USLC:
USL1:
Parlays
Las Vegas v Sacramento BTTS, Louisville to win, Colorado Springs to win, Indy Eleven v Rhode Island BTTS (7.39)
Charleston v Pittsburgh and Detroit v Tampa Bay both under 2.5 goals (3.70)
Memphis v Orange County and Louisville v North Carolina over 2.5 goals, Phoenix win or tie (5.21)
Knoxville win or tie, Madison v Charlotte under 2.5 goals, Northern Colorado v Spokane over 2.5 goals (6.53)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
Premier League parlay:
Arsenal to win, Tottenham v Aston Villa BTTS, Fulham v Brentford BTTS (4.42)
Scotland:
Scottish League Cup semifinals: Celtic v Aberdeen BTTS and Rangers (2.16)
Germany:
Dortmund v RB Leipzig: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals, Leipzig win or tie
College Football
South Florida -2.5 vs Florida Atlantic (1.86)
Ohio State ML vs Penn State (1.62)
Army -22.5 vs Air Force (1.90)
Vanderbilt +7.5 vs Auburn (1.90)
Georgia -15 vs Florida (1.90)
Pittsburgh at SMU over 57 points (1.90)
Indiana -7.5 vs Michigan State (1.90)
NFL
Broncos at Ravens over 46 points (1.90)
Vikings ML vs Colts (1.40)
Commanders ML at Giants (1.47)
Chiefs ML vs Buccaneers and over 46 points (2.29)
Parlay: Falcons, Lions, Bills all ML (3.58)
NASCAR at Martinsville
William Byron to win (10.00)
Denny Hamlin top five (1.83)
Ryan Blaney top five (1.83)
Christopher Bell top ten (1.62)
Formula One - Brazilian Grand Prix
McLaren both cars podium finish - Yes (1.72)
Mercedes both cars to finish top six - Yes (2.10)
Lando Norris Fastest Lap and Win the Race (4.00)
Final Thoughts
I was not able to find any Futures bets on either USL Championship or USL1, so was unfortunately not able to place any long term bets on these playoffs. I think you could find good value in Colorado Springs and Charleston making their conference finals, and if you want a longshot pick to win USLC, Rhode Island FC. Louisville, I imagine, will be the likely favorite to win the league though for USL Championship, and Union Omaha the favorite in USL1.
College basketball begins on Monday, November 4th and I am quite excited for another fun season ahead! More games each night to watch as the thrilling part of the sports calendar continues into the heart of Fall.
I am looking forward to the clocks falling back an hour this weekend for Daylight Savings Time ending this Sunday to gain the extra hour of sleep. Adjust your schedules accordingly for the European soccer matches as well.
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow. Follow me on Bluesky at @ilm-ryan.bsky.social.