USL Odds, October 26
The final weekend of the USL Championship and USL1 regular season awaits. Time to set the playoff field.
The Western Conference playoff field has been set on which eight teams are headed to the postseason, while the East still has two spots up for grabs among five teams. It will be a final day of the season focused on determining seeding and home field advantage for both conferences, and determining which clubs have played their final match of 2024, in the East.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, October 25.
Overall disclaimer, with this being the final weekend of the regular season, some of these games will be involving two teams who have either already confirmed their final playoff seed, or are playing for nothing except pride. Be warned that some of these games could see teams with weaker lineups or rotated squads as they prepare for the postseason.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Tulsa v Hartford BTTS and over 2.5 goals (2.10), Indy Eleven to win (1.80), Indy Eleven to score first (1.53), Charleston win or tie and BTTS (1.95), Orange County win or tie and under 2.5 total goals (2.25), Richmond to win, Lexington v Charlotte over 2.5 goals (1.57), Omaha to win (2.05)
Preston to beat Coventry (2.80), Burnley to beat Sheffield Wednesday (2.60), Army -15 vs ECU (1.90), Temple -2.5 vs Tulsa (1.86), Bengals -5.5 vs Browns (1.90), Lions at Vikings over 50.5 points (1.90), Eagles -3 vs Giants (1.83), Chiefs +1.5 vs 49ers (1.90), Steelers ML vs Jets (2.10), Gasly to beat Ocon (2.10), Joey Logano to finish top five (3.50)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Charleston v Loudoun
1.53 - 4.10 - 4.75
The form entering the postseason as of late for Charleston has been a tad concerning, entering this final matchday with just one win in their last five games. Granted, the Battery have clinched the #2 spot in the East weeks ago, but you would imagine a team would want their strongest showing entering the postseason, especially since the three teams below them in the table, Detroit, Indy Eleven and Rhode Island, are all unbeaten in their last five matches entering this game. Loudoun meanwhile, need a win and help in results elsewhere to find their way into the postseason. It is a tall order to do it against a Charleston team they have only beaten once all-time—October 13, 2019 to be exact or when Joker (2019) was the #1 movie in the US. However, I have to imagine Charleston are up for this match and close out their regular season with at minimum, a draw at home—remember the impressive results the Battery have had at home this season.
Bet: Charleston win or tie, over 2.5 goals (1.75)
North Carolina v Las Vegas
1.80 - 3.70 - 3.40
Las Vegas could wrap up the #2 seed in the West with a win in this match—and do it before Sacramento and Colorado Springs could even respond, as the two teams play later in the day. That’s a sentence I did not expect to type from the start of the season. North Carolina meanwhile remain in a heated playoff battle in the East as they are currently 8th in the table and have won three of their last four games. Las Vegas was the West’s best team away from home this season while North Carolina was the East’s fourth best team at home this year. I think we may be in for a fun last day match, especially as NCFC are still looking to confirm a playoff spot.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (1.86)
Pittsburgh v El Paso
1.45 - 4.33 - 4.75
Never. Doubt. Bob Lilley. While a playoff spot is not yet confirmed, the Riverhounds ride a three match winning run entering this final game, not to mention that Pittsburgh have lost just one game since July 13 (September 14th vs Tampa Bay). Pittsburgh also enter this game unbeaten at Highmark Stadium in their last eight home matches. With a playoff spot to clinch, it is hard to see Pittsburgh not wanting to carry momentum into the postseason, especially since they are on a shutout streak of 281’ currently—or enough time to watch the first three Kung Fu Panda movies. I am backing Pittsburgh to win.
Bet: Pittsburgh to win, under 3.5 goals (2.00)
Louisville v Phoenix
1.55 - 3.90 - 4.75
A match that is rather interesting on paper, a rematch of the 2018 USL Cup final—in which Louisville won 1-0 in the final match Drogba had ever played for Phoenix. Louisville had clinched the shield weeks ago and are unbeaten in their last five matches. Phoenix meanwhile was able to claim the final playoff spot in the West last week, but will look to improve upon their standing and avoid being the #8 seed in the postseason. However, Louisville at home this year has just been a different squad entirely, 15 wins and 1 defeat. I’m taking Louisville to win and enter playoff mode on a high.
Bet: Louisville to win and over 2.5 goals (2.37)
Tampa Bay v Indy Eleven
1.66 - 3.90 - 3.75
It has been a tumultuous few weeks for the Rowdies, but they are into the postseason and face an old NASL foe in Indy Eleven, who are riding scintillating form into the playoffs. A draw is all that is needed to see Indy Eleven clinching a home playoff game in what has been an emotional year for the club as well. Tampa Bay could only climb to has high as 5th but, any of the top four seeds currently are among the strongest sides in the league at the moment. Thinking this should be another fun to close out the regular season.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals, Tampa Bay or Indy Eleven double chance win (2.05)
Tulsa v Monterey Bay
1.95 - 4.00 - 2.90
A few weeks ago on the USL Show, I spoke about how this matchup might be the fixture Tulsa would need to see their playoff hopes over the line. Since then, Tulsa would go on to be winless in their last four matches, ending the season on a whimper. This match will now be played to determine who finishes second bottom of the Western Conference as both teams enter the match with just one win in their last five games. We have seen a draw from this match on four its seven all-time meetings and four of the seven meetings all-time have ended under 2.5 goals. We might be in for a quiet end to the season for both teams.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (2.05)
Rhode Island v Miami
1.16 - 7.00 - 10.00
If there is one team who probably cannot wait for the season to conclude, it is Miami FC who not only put in a wooden spoon performance on the year, it was one for the record books for all of the wrong reasons. Outside of 2013 Antigua Barracude (who went the entire season without a point mind you), 2024 Miami FC will be the worst team in modern USL history. They are even lower than 2013 Antigua as per my Elo ratings currently (likely due to having played eight more matches). Rhode Island will need a win and Indy Eleven loss to climb into a home playoff game in year one, which is already a major accomplishment for the club to be in this position.
Bet: Rhode Island win to nil (1.80)
San Antonio v Detroit
2.40 - 3.60 - 2.40
One would imagine that San Antonio has had a disappointing 2024, to go from 2022’s title—as one of my Elo ratings’ best USL teams of all-time—to missing the postseason entirely in 2024 is a fast collapse. It will take an offseason of soul-searching for the Texan club to return to the postseason in 2025. Detroit meanwhile has really come alive down the stretch of the season, just one defeat since the start of August and unbeaten in their last eight games. Looking to confirm the #3 seed in the East, I expect Detroit to get a result from this match, but their last six road games have seen an even split of wins and draws, so a double chance is the better option.
Bet: Detroit win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.80)
New Mexico v Memphis
2.10 - 3.60 - 2.80
New Mexico enters this match having already confirmed the #1 seed in the West, but ride a four match winless run into this game. Memphis meanwhile has confirmed they will be no lower than fifth in the table for the playoffs, and hold a chance to climb into a home playoff game, at the expense of the loser of Sacramento v Colorado Springs match, if they can beat New Mexico here. Memphis holds the 2-1 series lead all-time against New Mexico in fact and given the latter’s recent form in these previous four games, I think Memphis has a decent chance at an upset, especially if they can clinch a home playoff game in the process.
Bet: Memphis to win (2.80)
Oakland v Birmingham
2.30 - 3.75 - 2.50
A battle of two clubs who saw their form fall off entirely in the second half of the season. Oakland is honestly very fortunate to be in a playoff spot after they had a seven match winless run that they were able to halt with a win against Las Vegas. The same however cannot be said about Birmingham, who have just two wins in their last ten games and no wins in their last four. It’s seen Birmingham tumble from the heart of the playoff picture, to now 11th in the East. When a team has a collapse as such, and no longer controls their destiny, it is very hard to pick them in this game.
Bet: Oakland win, BTTS (4.33)
Orange County v Hartford
2.40 - 3.50 - 2.40
Hartford got a crucial point midweek against Tampa Bay, but sit one point behind North Carolina and Pittsburgh for the playoffs. Orange County wrapped up a playoff spot already and can only play to improve their seeding. Hartford, one of the drawbacks for them, is they will know their playoff fates before this match is played just by virtue of the Pittsburgh and North Carolina games being played earlier before this one kicks off. So this match could either see Hartford all to play for, or is a dead rubber. Knowing that, bet this game with caution to my advice pick below, change at your own discretion based on how the earlier games go.
Bet: BTTS (1.66)
If Hartford can still clinch a playoff spot: Hartford to win (2.40)
If Hartford is eliminated prior to this match: Draw (3.50)
Sacramento v Colorado Springs
1.80 - 3.75 - 3.50
#3 Sacramento hosting #4 Colorado Springs to close out the regular season. With Las Vegas playing in Cary, NC earlier in the day, both teams will know if the #2 seed in the West is still on the table ahead of this game, but at minimum, the winner of this match will take the higher seed over the other after this game. Neither team’s form has been super inspiring entering this match, each with just one win in their last five games. Colorado Springs also has not beaten Republic in Sacramento since August 2015—or just after Ant-Man (2015) had hit theaters. Both teams however have scored in four of their last five games, so I think that trend continues.
Bet: Sacramento win or tie, BTTS (2.05)
USL1
Omaha v Fuego FC
1.38 - 5.00 - 5.25
Fuego has had another season to forget, but that has not stopped them from taking some points off of teams down the stretch here as they enter this match with two wins from their last three games. However, what they don’t want to see is their opponents, Omaha, having clinched their third players’ shield in the last four seasons, lining up across from them. Omaha at home, with six matches unbeaten entering this game, will not see a drop in form and will enter the playoffs with a peak performance.
Bet: Omaha -1.5 (1.80)
Richmond v Charlotte
1.85 - 3.40 - 3.50
Charlotte is like Spokane, more of the latter in a bit, in that they have been on a horrible run of form to enter the postseason, no wins in their last seven games, none since August. Richmond have gone their last six games without a defeat and have a chance to move up from the #8 seed to the #7 spot if they can get a win at home. Given the recent struggles of Charlotte, who is confirmed to be at lowest, 6th in the league, I am backing Richmond to win.
Bet: Richmond to win (1.85)
Greenville v Tormenta FC
1.65 - 3.75 - 4.20
Greenville will be playing to clinch a home playoff game with this match. Knowing that, and knowing that Knoxville are right on their heels to take the spot away from them if they lose, I think Greenville enter this game playing to win. This fixture is historically high-scoring, the last four all being over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Greenville win or tie, over 2.5 goals (1.90)
Chattanooga v Lexington
2.45 - 3.50 - 2.37
This could be a match that determines the wooden spoon winner, Chattanooga currently #10 and Lexington #12. This honestly might just be a game to avoid as neither team has been stellar in recent weeks, Chattanooga winless in their last five, Lexington winless in their last four. I could see this game being a crazy goals-fest on the final day, four of their six all-time meetings have been over 3.5 goals in fact. Let’s root for whatever is the most chaotic outcome.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.57)
Northern Colorado v Madison
2.00 - 3.20 - 3.30
A rematch of the Jagermeister Cup final, and a potential preview of the USL1 playoff semifinals too. The winner of this match gets the #2 seed in the playoffs and both teams enter this game on five match unbeaten runs. Madison has not won at Northern Colorado since August 2022, and the Hailstorm enter this game with four consecutive wins.
Bet: Northern Colorado win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.62)
Spokane v Knoxville
2.90 - 3.20 - 2.20
The last match of the USL1 regular season will have some stakes on it as Knoxville will know if they have a chance at a home playoff game, and Spokane will know if they need to win or tie to avoid being the #8 seed in the playoffs. Spokane enter this game with 5 defeats in a row and if their spot is already confirmed, particularly if Knoxville are still playing to host a home playoff game, I am inclined to bet on Knoxville to win this one.
Bet: Knoxville to win (2.20)
Parlays
Louisville to win, Pittsburgh v El Paso under 3.5 goals, Orange County v Hartford BTTS (3.22)
North Carolina v Las Vegas, Tampa Bay v Indy Eleven, Sacramento v Colorado Springs all BTTS (4.38)
Omaha, Richmond, Knoxville all to win (5.61)
Memphis to win, Oakland to win, Rhode Island -1.5 (9.98)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
English Premier League:
Aston Villa v Bournemouth, Crystal Palace v Tottenham, West Ham v Manchester United, Arsenal v Liverpool all BTTS (6.17)
La Liga - El Clasico
Real Madrid v Barcelona: BTTS, over 2.5 goals and Lewandowski anytime goal (2.90)
MLS Cup Playoffs:
LA Galaxy to win, LAFC to win and Orlando v Charlotte BTTS (3.53)
College Football:
Indiana -5.5 vs Nebraska (1.90)
Eastern Michigan -2.5 vs Akron (1.90)
Kansas State -9.5 vs Kansas (1.90)
Temple +7.5 vs East Carolina (1.90)
Ohio State ML vs Nebraska and under 48.5 (1.94)
Memphis ML vs Charlotte and over 57.5 points (1.90)
SMU ML vs Duke and over 48.5 points (2.33)
UConn, Iowa, UTSA ML parlay (2.06)
Washington State -14.5, LSU +1, Arkansas -7 parlay (6.95)
NFL:
Ravens -8.5 vs the Browns (1.90)
Bears -3.0 vs the Commanders (1.90)
Cowboys at 49ers over 47.0 points (1.90)
ML parlay: Lions, Chiefs, Bills, Steelers all to win (3.11)
NASCAR at Homestead-Miami:
Coincidentally, the last three winners of the Homestead-Miami race have been William Byron (2021), Kyle Larson (2022) and Christopher Bell (2023), the current top three drivers of the points standing. Hendrick or Joe Gibbs Racing have won the last five Homestead races too.
Hendrick winning team (2.30), Joe Gibbs winning team (3.10)
Tyler Reddick top five (2.25)
Denny Hamlin top ten (1.52)
One of the following to win:
William Byron (8.00)
Kyle Larson (4.00)
Christopher Bell (7.00)
Formula 1 - Mexican Grand Prix:
Max Verstappen has been very good at this track, having won the last three races here and holds the record for the most Mexican Grand Prix wins all-time with five. That might see good odds offered on McLaren, who at the moment have the better car.
Lando Norris to win (3.25)
Leclerc podium finish (1.40)
Lawson over Tsunoda and Colapinto over Albon h2h win (no odds as of writing)
Mercedes both cars to finish top six - Yes (2.25)
Final Thoughts
My East Carolina Pirates football team finally made the decision to part ways with our head coach, last Sunday. After 5.5 years in charge, Mike Houston leaves the program on a 27-38 all-time record while he was here. It’s never an easy decision to make and it’s certainly tough news for any program to go through mid-season, but it was very much time to make the change. I had wanted to make a change at head coach back in December 2023 after we went 2-10 last season. With an interim in charge and five games to go sitting on a 3-4 record, a bowl game remains a possibility but it has to start with a win at homecoming tomorrow, vs 2-5 Temple. Here’s hoping for the best for the rest of the season.
Finally got all caught up on The Penguin from HBO. Have been really enjoying the show and its story has been incredibly enthralling to follow. Again, Milioti and Ferrell shine in their roles and have been incredible to watch on screen. Looking forward to the thrilling second half of this season.
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow. Follow me on Bluesky as well at @ILM-Ryan.bsky.social.