USL Odds, May 9
The league returns for USL clubs this weekend as many sides look to bounce back after a disappointing for all (but one team) USOC during the midweek.
The US Open Cup during the midweek always provides us with a nice treat of matches to watch—and wager on—while we wait for the next set of USL fixtures to return. Though the USOC this season met an end for everyone in USL bar the Pittsburgh Riverhounds—Lilleyball forever—we can focus up on the league matches and Jagermeister Cup games for the rest of the season!
Tired legs might play a role for those teams who had a midweek match, as something to keep in mind. But let’s dive in to the matches of the weekend and where the best odds are to be found!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, May 9.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Charleston to win and over 2.5 total goals (2.25), Hartford to score first (3.75), Tampa Bay v Birmingham BTTS and over 2.5 total goals (2.20), Colorado Springs v Phoenix BTTS/Draw (4.75), Orange County win or tie and under 3.5 total goals (1.75), Las Vegas v Loudoun under 2.5 goals (1.85),
USL1: Richmond win or tie and over 2.5 total goals, Charlotte to win and over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Parlays: Indy Eleven v Detroit, Tampa Bay v Birmingham and Colorado Springs v Phoenix all BTTS (5.59)
Beyond USL: Brighton v Newcastle and Chelsea v Liverpool BTTS (2.16), Wrexham/Blackpool ML (2.34), Kashima Antlers win v Machida Zelvia (3.00), Vancouver win v Real Salt Lake (1.61), Columbus v Charlotte BTTS and over 2.5 goals
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
North Carolina v Orange County
1.95 - 3.25 - 3.60
North Carolina should be proud of the performance they had against the state’s MLS club, even if the final scoreline flatters Charlotte FC in the end after 120’ played. Orange County meanwhile was able to rest midweek for this match before making the trip out East for the game. Both of these clubs have picked up three wins already on the season and find themselves in the heart of the playoff picture for both conferences. In six of their nine matches played this season, Orange County has gotten BTTS, versus eight of the eleven matches played by NCFC also being BTTS.
When facing Eastern Conference opponents away, Orange County have not won since June 2024 (and had a 6-0 loss away at Charleston in the matches against Eastern Conference opposition away from home, since then). Any trip cross-country is always a challenging one in this league, particularly for an Orange County side that only won four matches away from home in the league last season. I think BTTS is a safe wager, but North Carolina should have enough to get at least a point from this match.
Bet: North Carolina win or tie, BTTS
Rhode Island v Monterey Bay
1.44 - 4.50 - 5.50
Truly commiserations to Rhode Island FC after their midweek performance against New England Revolution on Wednesday. At home, in front of a crowd of 9,500+, the match was 1-1 in the waning moments of the 90’, looking towards extra time. But a Revs late goal meant the MLS side prevailed in the end, 2-1. Rhode Island will now play host to one of the longest road trips in USLC, as they welcome the high-flying Monterey Bay into Centreville Bank Stadium in Pawtucket.
In the one meeting last season, the match ended in a 2-2, as Albert Dikwa scored a brace for RIFC. With the midweek to rest up for this match, I would not be surprised to see Monterey Bay the sharper of the two clubs to start. However, my one pause over picking MBFC is that their previous trips eastward have not been so fruitful, July 2024 was the last time the California club won on the road against an Eastern Conference team. With the long travel at play here, I think the hosts should have the upper hand for this fixture.
Bet: Rhode Island win or tie, Over 2.5 total goals (1.86)
Loudoun v Lexington
1.65 - 4.10 - 4.10
Just two weeks removed from their Jagermeister Cup match—which saw a controversial amount of stoppage time being played that allowed Loudoun enough time to grab a late winner—these two sides meet once more in USL play. Loudoun United are still atop the Eastern Conference entering this match, but the same success cannot be extended to Lexington, with just seven points and one win on the board this season.
Lexington are also riding an unfortunate goalless drought over six hours without finding the back of the net—or enough time to watch all four Toy Story movies in their entirety during that span. Loudoun should win this game, but if you want to be quite bold, Loudoun win to nil is the wager, and extend Lexington’s misery.
Bet: Loudoun win to nil (2.75)
Hartford v Detroit
2.60 - 3.30 - 2.45
Crucially for Detroit, they will be looking to not let their elimination against Chicago Fire in the USOC midweek, ruin what has been a stellar run of matches as of late. Prior to their defeat against Chicago, Detroit had been riding a six match unbeaten run. In the six all-time meetings of these two clubs, Hartford has only won once, and more notably, has still yet to score multiple goals against Detroit. I believe Detroit will quickly move on from their USOC disappointment, and extend their unbeaten run against USL opposition to a seventh straight match, getting a win over Hartford, away, and if history is any indication, Hartford will make it yet another match against the Michigan club where they fail to score multiple goals.
Bet: Detroit to win, Hartford under 1.5 goals (2.75)
Louisville v Pittsburgh
1.42 - 4.10 - 7.00
Well done to the Pittsburgh Riverhounds in being the only USL team to win their R32 match to advance in the USOC, setting a Pennsylvania derby against Philadelphia Union in two weeks. It was Beto Ydrach’s first ever professional goal—in stoppage time of 90+6’—the clinched the cupset for the Riverhounds, eliminating NYCFC (who still have not gotten more USOC victories than their B-team). Louisville were not so lucky in the cup, losing to Minnesota United at home, 1-0. It was the first time since last season in the Eastern Conference playoffs that Louisville failed to score in a match (losing to Rhode Island 3-0 in the conference semifinals).
Louisville has been in control of this series all-time, with a record of 10 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats against Pittsburgh. July 2023 was the Riverhounds last win in the series. However, weirdly enough, all five wins for Pittsburgh against Louisville, have been on the road. This match, riding the high of their USOC advancement, could see Pittsburgh pick up the upset (as per the odds) result on the weekend and might be worth a punt. That being said, Louisville are still my top team in USLC at the moment as per my Elo ratings, it is tough to bet against them as it stands. I like the hosts to get the win, and score first (something they have done in every home match this season).
Bet: Louisville to win, Louisville to score over 1.5 goals (1.80)
Bet 2: Louisville to score first (1.30)
Tampa Bay v Charleston
2.60 - 3.50 - 2.35
Both of these teams were on the unfortunate defeats by multiple goals against MLS teams in the midweek, and will be quickly wanting to put those USOC exits in the rear-view mirror and return to winning ways in the league. I do believe the hosts need a result in this match to really kickstart their season, as the Rowdies are still searching for their last win since March 22nd. In the six games for Tampa Bay played since their last win, each one has been BTTS (and five of them went over 2.5 goals). Charleston meanwhile have won their last four matches in USLC play, and will be looking to make it five in a row in the league for the first time since May 15, 2024 when they won six in a row in the league.
I would lean towards the visitors to pick up the result in this one, if you wanted to add a double chance wager on the game, but for safety, I am backing this to be our “lots of goals” match of the week.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (1.90)
Tulsa v El Paso
2.30 - 3.60 - 2.62
Oh El Paso, it was almost there, we were all rooting for you. To be 2-0 up at halftime over Austin FC in the USOC during the midweek (it was the third time this season that the MLS side trailed 2-0 at half), only for Locomotive to lose 3-2 in the end is an absolute gut punch (from a Brandon Vazquez brace no less). After having the cupset in their grasp, before snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, refocusing on the league is going to be a trickier ask.
October 2021 was the last time El Paso has won a match in Tulsa, but one hallmark of this series has been how much the Oklahoma club has struggled against El Paso in the past, as they have only beaten Locomotive once in this series’ all-time eight meetings. Your wager on this match at minimum, should be BTTS (of which has occurred in the last six Tulsa games and in eight of the 13 El Paso matches on the year), but if you want to bet a match result, that depends on how well you think El Paso can bounce back after their heartbreaking midweek match.
Bet: BTTS (1.83)
San Antonio v Oakland
1.70 - 3.50 - 4.75
Early exits from the USOC meant these two clubs had all week to focus on just this fixture, with Oakland certainly hoping to turn around their recent fortunes as they enter this game off the back of consecutive defeats for the first time since March. San Antonio’s poor start to the month of April has seen their recent form turnaround over the past three weeks, picking up two wins and a draw in that time (and spoiling Rhode Island’s home opener last week by denying the hosts a goal at their new stadium).
Oakland has still yet to beat San Antonio in their all-time meetings eight meetings (five wins and three draws for the Texan team), but on just one occasion has Oakland been shutout in a road match at San Antonio. I like the hosts to get the win in this one, with over 1.5 goals (which has happened in six SAFC matches this season, four of which were wins).
Bet: San Antonio to win, over 1.5 goals (2.10)
New Mexico v Phoenix
1.90 - 3.25 - 3.90
A pair of clubs who suffered heavy losses by three goals to teams from Texas in their last match played. Phoenix exited the USOC against Houston in the midweek, while New Mexico lost 3-0 to rivals El Paso last week in their worst ever defeat in the history of that series. Yet, a win by New Mexico with results elsewhere, could leave them in a familiar place, atop the Western Conference after this weekend. Phoenix meanwhile find themselves in the cellar of the conference, still searching for their first win since April 6th. In the ten matches against USL opposition this season for Phoenix, eight of them have been BTTS, with only one of their defeats on the season being by multiple goals. New Mexico meanwhile have five “win to nil” results on the season.
New Mexico to win is the more likely outcome for this match this season, but do you think this New Mexico defense can keep another clean sheet, coming off the most goals they have conceded in a game since October 2024? Adding Phoenix under 1.5 goals gets you to plus odds.
Bet: New Mexico win, Phoenix under 1.5 goals (2.00)
Sacramento v Indy Eleven
1.83 - 3.40 - 3.90
I feel like in the opening months of this season, I keep waiting for Sacramento have that defining win that is indicative of what a Neill Collins team is capable of. Their four victories across all competitions on the year have only been by a single goal. However, none of their defeats this year have been by more than a single goal, including their USOC exit against San Jose earlier this week. Republic currently occupy the final playoff spot in the West, but are already starting to lose ground with the top of the conference. But it does feel like Sacramento are on the cusp of getting a massive win at some point.
Meanwhile, Indy Eleven in the midweek took Philadelphia Union all the way to penalties at Subaru Park, only to lose to the MLS side. However, one thing Indy Eleven matches this season have not been, is boring, as seven of their nine games this season have been BTTS, six of those games have been over 2.5 goals. Even Indy’s two defeats on the season have been high-scoring games of 4+ total goals scored.
BTTS is the straight-forward wager to do in this match, but I want to back Sacramento get the win that can kickstart their season.
Bet: Sacramento to win, BTTS (4.00)
Las Vegas v Colorado Springs
2.80 - 3.20 - 2.37
Something has to give for either of these teams. Las Vegas games being under 2.5 goals has been an ever so consistent bet for me this season—John Morrissey wrote about Las Vegas’ play style in his latest Back Four article this week—however every Colorado Springs match this season has been BTTS for the defending champions. Can the Switchbacks do enough to disrupt Las Vegas or will the lights pick up their first win in nearly six years to do the day—May 11, 2019, a 3-0 win for Las Vegas was the Lights last win in the series, or when Detective Pikachu (2019) was released in theaters.
I think the team who scores first in this match will ultimately have enough to get at least a draw, if not a win, from this game. The better odds though will remain with BTTS occurring for a match involving this low-scoring Las Vegas outfit.
Bet: BTTS, Under 3.5 goals (3.00)
USL1
Knoxville v Madison
2.15 - 3.00 - 3.10
Despite dropping below Spokane in my latest USL1 Elo ratings, I still believe that Knoxville at the moment, are USL1’s best team right now. What they have not been able to entirely figure out historically, is how to consistently beat Madison. Of the all-time seven meetings, four of these games have ended in draws, three of which were 0-0. But this Knoxville team just feels different and the move to the new stadium has been something that I believe will be a long term positive change for the club. I have the hosts winning this match.
Bet: Knoxville to win (2.15)
Westchester v Charlotte
2.00 - 3.40 - 3.40
It’s a first time meeting for these two clubs, and it comes for Westchester who are still searching for their first win over USL1 opposition since March 29th. Having gone their next five games without a win (four of those games going over 2.5 goals most notably), the New York club is desperate to get a positive result and start off this six match home-stand through May and June on the right foot. Charlotte meanwhile are off the back of three consecutive wins across all competitions for the first time since June 2023, or when Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (2023) had hit theaters.
I want to believe that playing at home, Westchester can get this one across the line for a result, but they might be running into a really tough opponent in Charlotte. The safer option is over 2.5 goals, but Charlotte as an underdog in this match to win (3.40) might be too enticing to pass up.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.75)
Chattanooga v Richmond
2.90 - 2.90 - 3.40
Chattanooga who had their USOC run end during the midweek, only losing by a single goal against their state’s MLS team, Nashville SC. Back focused on the league however, both of these teams are on a run of just one win in their last five games across all competitions (Chattanooga are still on just one win across all matches on the season in 90’). In 50% of the games from this series, it’s gone over 2.5 goals, and I am willing to back that wager again this week for Kickers matches, but with the addition that the visitors should get a result from this match.
Bet: Richmond win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.60)
Tormenta v Spokane
2.87 - 3.30 - 2.25
In spite of what I said on Knoxville, Spokane themselves are making a strong case that they should be the league’s best team right now, coming off the back of four wins in a row across all competitions for the first time in club history, and will be looking to extend that win streak away at Tormenta. A pair of draws for these two sides last season, though the last trip to Tormenta for the Velocity, was a chaotic 3-3 fixture with an 87’ tying goal for the Washington club.
I like this match to have another chaotic, wacky scoreline of over 2.5 goals (which these two teams have played a combined 16 games on the year going over that mark), but I still fancy the visitors to get a result in the end.
Bet: Spokane win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (2.50)
Omaha v Portland
1.90 - 3.30 - 4.00
It’s safe to say that Omaha and Portland have both been off to similarly slow starts to their USL1 campaigns this season. This is Omaha’s slowest start to a league campaign since 2023, while Portland meanwhile are still searching for their first win in regulation as a club. This match will however be the Omaha’s first USL1 home game since winning the league last season against Spokane, and only their second home match on the season. Having the joint-best home record all of last year, Omaha are an extremely tough side to beat at Werner Park, their last defeat at home coming on July 27, 2024.
I’m backing the hosts to get the win in this match, and scoring the opening goal in the game as well, as Portland has still yet to score the opening goal of a match against USL1 opposition.
Bet: Omaha to win, Omaha to score first (2.10)
AV Alta v Texoma
No odds as of writing
I feel slowly but surely, Texoma is putting things together to eventually get their first win at some point, right? Like it can be put off forever and the club even led 2-0 v Charlotte last time out, only to lose 4-3 (off a heartbreaking penalty allowed in 90+5’ to lose, the second time this year they’ve allowed a 90+5’ goal this season to drop points). It makes things all the more challenging to wager on their matches because at any moment, it feels like fate will be tempted and it will snap Texoma out of this lull and into their first win. Perhaps that is this weekend, as they face an AV Alta team who have not won since April 12, and are off the back of three consecutive defeats (though two were against USLC opposition).
The pick for me would be on AV Alta win or tie, maybe even to get the win if the odds are favorable. It depends on how much you believe Texoma will continue to wander without their first win. As time goes on, something will eventually change.
Bet: AV Alta win or tie
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Loudoun, Detroit, New Mexico (7.68)
Charleston, Louisville, San Antonio (5.67)
Knoxville, Charlotte, Omaha (13.95)
BTTS Parlay:
Tampa Bay v Charleston, Tulsa v El Paso, Sacramento v Indy Eleven (5.15)
NO BTTS Parlay: Loudoun v Lexington, San Antonio v Oakland (3.50)
Underdog Parlay:
Las Vegas and Charlotte Independence ML (9.52)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 12.05
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USL1 Parlay: 3.66
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
English Premier League:
Wolves v Brighton, Bournemouth v Aston Villa and Newcastle v Chelsea BTTS parlay (3.70)
Southampton v Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace both over 2.5 goals (2.04)
Fulham v Everton draw (3.40)
Elsewhere in the British Isles:
Wycombe v Charlton and Leyton Orient v Stockport each BTTS (3.99)
St Johnstone v Ross County BTTS (1.90)
East Fife to win and over 1.5 goals in the match v Edinburgh City (1.90)
Europe:
Bayern Munich -2.5 spread v Borussia Monchengladbach (2.04)
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals, Dortmund win or tie (2.50)
Barcelona v Real Madrid: Barcelona to score first, over 2.5 goals (2.05)
MLS:
Philadelphia v Columbus BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.00)
Nashville v Charlotte BTTS (1.72)
Vancouver ML v LAFC (2.00)
Cincinnati and Orlando ML (2.88)
Other Sports:
OKC Thunder -5.5 at Denver Nuggets (1.86)
NY Knicks ML vs Boston Celtics (2.90)
Winnipeg Jets ML vs Dallas Stars (1.74)
San Diego Padres -1.5 at Colorado Rockies (1.86)
NASCAR, AdventHealth 400 at Kansas:
Of note, this track, with this current generation car for NASCAR, is extremely fun and very wide open. While it makes it tricky to wager on races at Kansas, you will be in for a good time watching this race this weekend.
Tyler Reddick to finish top five (2.25)
Bubba Wallace (1.80) to finish top ten
Toyota manufacturer winner (2.70)
Ty Gibbs to beat Ross Chastain h2h (1.86)
Alex Bowman to win a group of himself, Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe and Josh Berry (3.25)
Final Thoughts
Our official USL Show kits for the season are on-sale now, in a long-sleeve and short-sleeve version! These excellently designed kits from Equipt Studios are on-sale now to help get us, the USL Show, to Portland, ME for our live show for Portland Hearts of Pine v Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the Jagermeister Cup on July 25th! Check out the kits in the link here!
Andor’s third arc, episodes 7-9, might have been the best trio of the season. Episode 8 and 9 in particular were quite tense, emotional, and dramatic. Episode 8 is quite possibly the best episode of the show’s entire run. The moments, the monologues and the performances in these episodes were all of the highest caliber. Everyone brought their A-game. It will be sad to see the show reach its conclusion with the next batch of three episodes publishing next Tuesday, but this show has been a masterpiece that I encourage you to watch!
I have somehow never seen any of the Mission: Impossible franchise movies (aside from clips on YouTube of the films’ coolest scenes). So I’ve started this week with the first film from 1996 (which I gave four stars to on my Letterboxd), and look forward to working my way through the rest of the franchise, in the lead-up to their final movie at the end of the month (hang on, the final movie is nearly three hours? My goodness.)
Finally, a thank you to Tottenham Hotspur for advancing to the Europa League final! In about two weeks time, I will be incredibly nervous to watch the match, but what ca thrilling end to what has been a very challenging campaign for Spurs. COYS!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.