USL Odds, May 2
Back to league matches, the Kentucky Derby, the F1 race in Miami, plenty of sports for the weekend!
The 2025 Jagermeister Cup was off to a roaring start this past weekend, with numerous high-scoring matches, and some surprising scores that saw a USL1 club claim victories over USLC opposition. How teams will adapt in a return to their league fixtures on the weekend will be interesting to follow. Will the form of the Jagermeister Cup spill over into their respective leagues? In the meantime, the odds are quite even for many of the games this weekend which means there is money to be made! Let’s break down the matches for the weekend ahead!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, May 2nd.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Jagermeister Cup games: Detroit win or tie and under 2.5 goals (1.86), Loudoun to win (2.80), Tulsa win or tie (1.90), Louisville to win and over 2.5 goals (2.20), Tormenta win or tie and over 2.5 goal (2.90), Sacramento to win in 90’ (1.40), Rhode Island win in 90’, Over 2.5 goals, Birmingham v Chattanooga over 2.5 goals
Parlays: Tulsa or tie, San Antonio or tie (2.86), Loudoun ML and Las Vegas win or tie (4.48)
Beyond USL: Liverpool -2.5 spread against Tottenham Hotspur (2.50), Wolves, Newcastle and Fulham ML (2.86), Bournemouth v Manchester United BTTS (1.70), Wrexham ML v Charlton (2.25), Leeds ML (1.60), Barcelona to lift the trophy, BTTS (2.25), Bayer Leverkusen ML and Bayern Munich ML and Over 2.5 total goals (2.03), Nashville v Chicago BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (2.00), Ford Winning Manufacturer (2.50)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Rhode Island v San Antonio
1.70 - 3.75 - 4.33
Rhode Island has turned a corner on their season recently, having won three of their last four games, while San Antonio, who had a bit of a wobble to start the month of April, including exiting the US Open Cup to Omaha, have now won two in a row. The story of this match should be Rhode Island opening up their brand new home stadium, Centreville Bank Stadium—for its inaugural match. A long two month road trip for RIFC has now culminated with this grand opening of their home venue. But can San Antonio spoil the party?
San Antonio has only seen one defeat on the road this season—away at Omaha in the aforementioned USOC match—while RIFC fans have yet to see their side lose a home game since June 8, 2024, finishing last season with an impressive ten matches unbeaten at home, including a 8-1 thriller to sign off Beirne Stadium in style. With the move to the new stadium, and this match being the first one for Saturday, I fancy the hosts picking up the result in their first match of their new home, but San Antonio to make this an interesting game.
Bet: Rhode Island win or tie, BTTS, Rhode Island to score first (3.10)
Charleston v Hartford
1.40 - 4.20 - 6.00
Making it two wins on the bounce for the first time since October 2024, Hartford are head down to the Lowcountry to try win away at Charleston for the first time in the history of this series. In one of the upsets of the Jagermeister Cup’s first day of group stage matches, USL1 upstart, FC Naples would beat Charleston in a shock 1-0 scoreline—off the back of just 26% possession for the Floridian club too!
The Battery will be looking to avoid losing back to back games in the same season across all competitions for the first time since October 2023, and I believe that should be your wager for this match. However, take note that this series has seen only one of its twelve games be under 1.5 goals, ten of the twelve matches have been BTTS, each of those ten going over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Charleston to win, over 2.5 total goals (2.25)
Possible second bet: Hartford to score first has happened in four of the last five meetings between these clubs and is 3.75 odds.
Indy Eleven v Detroit
2.25 - 3.40 - 2.87
Detroit City have strung together four consecutive wins across all competitions for the first time since April 2024, and the side extended that run with a 90+1’ goal from Darren Smith last weekend in the cup to win 1-0 v Pittsburgh, Detroit’s fourth clean sheet on the year as well. Indy Eleven similarly had a clean sheet victory last weekend out in the cup, beating Forward Madison 4-0 away from home, it was the most goals Indy Eleven had scored away from home since June 2022 (in a 4-3 win over Charleston) or when Top Gun: Maverick (2022) had just hit theaters.
I believe this match will be entirely dictated by Detroit City. At home, Detroit is not only unbeaten, only two of their five matches across all competitions on the year have gone over 2.5 goals. However, away from home, all four of Detroit’s games have gone over 1.5 goals, with two of them being BTTS. Indy Eleven have yet to be shutout in a match this season and there could be an edge to taking Detroit to pick up their fifth clean sheet on the year, but I think taking BTTS is the move for this match, perhaps with a lean on the Detroit defense to hold Indy Eleven to just the lone goal.
Bet: BTTS, Indy Eleven under 1.5 team goals (3.60)
Pittsburgh v North Carolina
2.15 - 3.20 - 3.30
A pair of clubs who sit inside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference at the moment, but have not necessarily made the headlines around the USLC up until now. Last season, these two clubs were the last two sides to make it into the Eastern Conference playoff field, though neither club advanced past the first round.
Strangely, since North Carolina rejoined the USLC, the three meetings between these clubs have been draws, each of which were under 2.5 goals. Furthermore, in the all-time meetings of these teams, NCFC has never won at Highmark, or even lead for any amount of time against the Riverhounds in this stadium. Only one of the seven all-time meetings have seen North Carolina scoring the opening goal, from their 5-0 victory over Pittsburgh in August 2019. I have the hosts getting the result, the opening goal and if you want to test your luck, this match being under 2.5 goals.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, Pittsburgh to score first (1.75)
Tampa Bay v Birmingham
1.70 - 3.75 - 4.33
Birmingham Legion have their second permanent manager in club history, as Mark Briggs has come to manage the club, appointed to the role on Wednesday of this week. The former Wilmington Hammerheads manager—always have to shout out my favorite USL team when I get the chance—who last spent time with Sacramento Republic (having been with the club from 2019 to 2024) will be eager to make an early good impression on the Legion faithful at they make the trip to Al Lang Stadium looking for a new manager bounce.
We spoke about it on the latest USL Show, but you have to feel gutted for the Tampa Bay Rowdies after last weekend’s loss on penalties. After 3-0 leading at halftime, to concede three second half goals and eventually end up with just one point after the match was a gut punch of a result to open their Jagermeister Cup fixtures.
Both clubs enter this match looking for something to prove and start their month of May off on a better foot. Birmingham has been a weird bogey team for the Rowdies historically, controlling the all-time series with 6 wins and 3 draws in their 13 all-time meetings. One match that always sticks in my mind when these two clubs meet was Tampa Bay’s wild 6-4 win in the USOC from a year ago next weekend. But in looking at the match tomorrow, I still have question marks on if Tampa Bay can put together a result, but I do not doubt the goals that can be had with both of these teams.
Wager on Birmingham if you pick for the new manager bounce, but my more safe pick will be on a “goals of the week” match.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.20)
Bet 2: Birmingham to win at 4.33 might be too enticing to pass up
Colorado Springs v Phoenix
1.80 - 3.70 - 4.00
Colorado Springs has sat idle since April 23rd, with no Jagermeister Cup games played this past weekend. Phoenix continued their frantic start to the season with a defeat to San Antonio in their Group 2 of the cup. Weirdly, San Antonio has beaten both of these clubs in their last match played. Further strangely, San Antonio is also Phoenix’s only win in 90’ on the season. Though Colorado Springs is not much better, with just two wins inside 90’ to open their league title defense campaign.
It’s safe to say that neither club has had the start to the season as they had hoped, but this match offers an opportunity to turn around their worrisome starts to the year. Colorado Springs has seen every match they have played to start the year be BTTS, Phoenix is also similarly searching for their first clean sheet on the season as well. Suffice to say, I do not see either team’s defense maintain a clean sheet in this match, but if Phoenix can score multiple goals, only once this season have the lost a match in those circumstances. Both teams desperately could use a win though, which leaves likely only one outcome in that circumstance…
Bet: Draw, BTTS (4.75)
El Paso v New Mexico
2.20 - 3.30 - 2.90
Derby day for El Paso Locomotive and New Mexico United in Texas, and the hosts will be looking to do something for the first time since the 2022/2023 seasons, and that is go unbeaten against New Mexico in back to back meetings. In a scheduling quirk on the year, this will be the third meeting between these foes, who have met in the US Open Cup on April 16th—El Paso advancing on PKs—and in the reverse fixture in the league on March 22nd—New Mexico winning 1-0.
You have to go back to July 2021—or when F9 (2021) was in theaters—to find the last time El Paso beat their rivals at home (which was actually capping off four consecutive matches against New Mexico unbeaten). El Paso have not won a match in 90’ since April 5th, whereas New Mexico enter this match having not lost a game in 90’ since March 8th.
The better odds are on El Paso to get a result at home if you want to wager for the outcome, but I think the safer option is to pick this match to have goals, as 13 of the 19 all-time meetings have seen BTTS, ten of those games went over 2.5 goals.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 total goals (2.20)
Orange County v Tulsa
2.25 - 3.40 - 3.00
A fixture that has more often than not, ended in not having BTTS, as on eight of the 13 meetings of this series has ended that way. But when this fixture does get BTTS, it usually results in plenty of goals on display, such as Tulsa’s 5-3 win over Orange County in March 2019. In the two meetings of last year, the combined 180’ played resulted in just a single goal, Orange County’s 1-0 win in this very fixture of last season.
Last time out for both clubs, Orange County was on the losing side of a 3-1 loss to Las Vegas at home in the cup, while Tulsa played spoiler to One Knoxville’s first official match at their new stadium, with a 90+5’ tying goal in the cup (though it was not so much a true spoiler as they would lose to the Tennessee club on PKs). While it is tough to wager against the history of this series for another BTTS, it is worth noting that Tulsa have not won away at Orange County since that aforementioned 2019 fixture. It might be risking it to add in the under goals bet however.
Bet: Orange County win or tie, Under 3.5 goals (1.75)
Las Vegas v Loudoun
2.60 - 3.20 - 2.60
Las Vegas spent the midweek in picking up a 2-1 win over AV Alta in the Jagermeister Cup to take the lead of their group (having played a game more than everyone bar their opponents from the match on Wednesday). Loudoun had a 90+6’ winner against Lexington to win their opening group stage match as the still Eastern Conference leaders make the trip West. Loudoun have not won a Western Conference road trip since May 25, 2024 when they defeated Orange County 2-0, which kicked off a seven match unbeaten run last season.
Las Vegas have had BTTS in each of their last four games, bucking the trend of the three games prior to those four not being BTTS. The Lights defense is frustrating to breakdown, and given Loudoun having just four games this season under 2.5 goals, picking a result in this match seems to rest with how much you think the visitors can generate on offense.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.85)
Monterey Bay v Miami
1.70 - 3.50 - 4.75
I had said back during our USLC Western Conference preview episode, that when this match occurred, one of these two perennial cellar dweller teams would not be in last of their conference. Now that this matchday has arrived, Miami are in a playoff spot in the East and Monterey Bay currently has the West’s best goal differential and are third in their conference. These two clubs have seen their 2025 season turn around their fortunes on the field.
Last time out in the cup, Miami would battle back from being 0-3 down at halftime to eventually make it 3-3 before they prevailed against Tampa Bay on PKs. Monterey Bay meanwhile has had the benefit of a bye week since April 23rd. Interestingly, in the three previous meetings of these teams, every match has been under 1.5 goals, each team getting a 1-0 win and one 0-0 scoreline. However, I doubt we see similarly low-scoring affair this time around and I like the time off to benefit the hosts in this one.
Bet: Monterey Bay win or tie, BTTS (2.30)
Oakland v Sacramento
3.30 - 3.30 - 2.05
I am still struggling on what to make of this Oakland Roots side this season. For every poor result they have recorded on the year—being knocked out of the USOC by Tacoma coupled with another defeat in the State of Washington to Spokane this past week—they’ll earn a draw against a tough to break down Las Vegas team or get a spirited victory away at Tulsa. Sacramento meanwhile continue to be somewhat of a reliable outfit to wager on. Only shutout once this year, just two defeats on the season, Republic matches have been reliable for goals—BTTS in five and over 2.5 goals in four—and when going against their Northern California rivals, they have only lost twice (with wins in four of their last five meetings).
Oakland have not beaten Sacramento in a home match since October 2021—mere weeks before Dune (2021) would hit theaters. On just two occasions, Sacramento have been held scoreless by Oakland, in a pair of 0-0 draws back in 2021 as well. I have Sacramento scoring multiple goals in this match, scoring a goal in each half as they pick up a result against Oakland.
Bet: Sacramento win or tie, Sacramento to score in both halves (3.60)
USL1
Richmond v Greenville
2.35 - 3.40 - 2.55
I want to keep sounding my panic button worries on the Greenville Triumph, as they have now gone just one win in their last six games played. However, Richmond have seen a similar run, as they have picked up just one win in their last five played. Recent history of this series has seen the Triumph go unbeaten against Richmond in their last three games played, but I still have major question marks around this Greenville team.
Though both teams took defeats in the cup last time out, I have more faith in Richmond to bounce back and get a result, than I do the Triumph at the moment. Picking the hosts to draw at minimum, but to make it an eighth game this year to go over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Richmond win or tie, over 2.5 total goals (3.00)
Texoma v Charlotte
7.0 - 4.10 - 1.38
Still searching for their first win in club history, Texoma has strung together two consecutive draws entering this match, the latter of which was a 0-0 fixture against El Paso from the cup (though they would fall on PKs). Charlotte meanwhile are off the back of consecutive wins, after they finally defeated North Carolina FC for the first time since May 2023, in the cup last weekend.
Five of the matches for the Independence this year have been over 2.5 goals, including their last three games played. Texoma are still trying to find a match where they have scored multiple goals in it themselves. If this game is going to go over 2.5 goals, it will be off the back of the Independence. But I do believe the hosts will continue searching for their first win after this weekend.
Bet: Charlotte to win, Over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Madison v Omaha
2.75 - 3.25 - 2.25
A pair of 2024 playoff teams who currently find themselves outside the playoff picture to start the year, each with only one win in league play thus far. Madison have gone the last four games across all competitions, winless, and are off the back a tough 0-4 loss to Indy Eleven in the Jagermeister Cup. Omaha over recent weeks have experienced the highs of advancing in the USOC past San Antonio, and the lows of losing to New Mexico 2-0, in a match where they were outshot 12-2 in shots on target.
Both of these teams could really use this match to gain some confidence on their seasons, and possibly enter the playoff field if other results go their way. On just two trips to Wisconsin have Omaha beaten Madison away and none since October 2023. Across their 15 all-time meetings, Madison has only been shutout by Omaha on just three matches, the aforementioned October 2023 fixture being the most recent. There are goals to be had in this match, I am picking over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Over 2.5 total goals (2.07)
AV Alta v Naples
2.45 - 3.10 - 2.55
Having played a game more than everyone else besides Las Vegas in the Jagermeister Cup, AV Alta may be counting down the matches until the group stage is behind them as their cup journey might be over as soon as it started, having dropped their first two opening games, both against USLC opposition. Naples meanwhile could not have asked for a better start to the Cup, picking up a 1-0 win at home against Charleston in a shock scoreline of the matchday.
Naples continues to be a club on my watchlist as they can make a claim to being inside the top two best teams in USL1 at the moment. With Naples being underdogs to get a result in this match, I am willing to be so bold and pick the Florida club to get the win on the trip cross-country.
Bet: Naples to win (2.55)
Portland v Knoxville
No odds as of writing
Knoxville opened their new stadium last week—with the highest attended crowd in USL1 history—earning an impressive win on penalties over USLC’s Tulsa, after conceding a 90’ stoppage time equalizer that denied them the full three points. Portland, despite beating Hartford in the USOC earlier this season, could not repeat the result as they fell to their USLC neighbors in their Jagermeister Cup match.
As spoken to about it in the most recent USL Show from this week, we could only sing the praises of Knoxville in their stadium opening, and how strongly the team has looked in USL1 play this year. They are my current USL1 Elo ratings leaders as well, and I am looking to back them another match once more this week. Perhaps Portland can cause an upset, but they are still looking for their first win inside 90’ as a club, providing enticing odds to wager on the hosts. However, my pick is on Knoxville to pick up another result.
Bet: Knoxville to win
Spokane v Westchester
No odds as of writing
Both of these USL1 outfits have been making waves in the league to open up the season. Spokane, in spite of a few blemishes on their resume on the season coming against Naples in the league, and Tacoma in the USOC, have looked ever the strong contender to enter this year. Velocity picked up a controlling 2-1 win over Oakland in the Jagermeister Cup last weekend. Westchester had their first home match against USL opposition this past weekend as they fell to Rhode Island 4-1 at home. The USL Show’s John Morrissey was on hand for the fixture and wrote about the match and more in his latest Back Four article from this week!
Westchester themselves have just this one last road trip to Washington, before they kick off a run of six consecutive home matches where they’ll have the opportunity to really get comfortable to their new home. Westchester won’t have a road match after this weekend until the middle of June. That being said, I still believe it will be Spokane as the happier of the two sides after this match, as travel may play a role for the New York club who have not won a road match since March 29th. Spokane also have the chance to set a new club record for wins in a row (across all competitions) if they can get all three points this weekend.
Bet: Spokane win or tie, Over 2.5 total goals
Of note, Spokane have scored first in five matches against USLC/1 opposition this year, their odds of scoring first in this match this weekend are BLANK.
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Naples and Charlotte ML (3.51)
Charleston, Monterey Bay, Sacramento ML (4.87)
BTTS Parlay:
Indy Eleven v Detroit, Tampa Bay v Birmingham, Colorado Springs v Phoenix all BTTS (5.59)
Rhode Island v San Antonio, Orange County v Tulsa, Monterey Bay v Miami (6.72)
Underdog Parlay:
Detroit or tie, Loudoun or tie (2.35)
Birmingham and New Mexico ML (12.56)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 15.78
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
Premier League:
Leicester v Southampton: BTTS and over 2.5 goals (1.95)
West Ham ML v Tottenham Hotspur (2.00)
Brighton v Newcastle and Chelsea v Liverpool both BTTS (2.16)
Elsewhere in England and Scotland:
Hull City to be relegated (2.37 futures)
Burnley, Bristol City, Leeds all ML (3.63)
Sheffield Wednesday to beat Watford (2.40) - and win the 12th place cup!
Wrexham and Blackpool ML (2.34)
Rangers v Celtic BTTS and over 2.5 total goals (1.72)
Beyond the British Isles:
Bayern Munich to beat RB Leipzig (1.60)
Stuttgart win or tie v St Pauli and over 1.5 goals (1.86)
Kashima Antlers to win v Machida Zelvia (3.00)
Vancouver Whitecaps to win v Real Salt Lake (1.61)
Brian White (1.80) or Sebastian Berhalter (2.20) to have a goal or assist anytime is intriguing
Columbus v Charlotte BTTS, Over 2.5 goals
Formula 1, Miami Grand Prix:
These are picks prior to qualifying for Sunday’s Grand Prix:
Piastri to win
Verstappen podium finish
Williams double points finish
Of note, Kimi Antonelli is on pole for the sprint race tomorrow and it would be hard not to root for him to get the win.
NASCAR Cup Series at Texas Motor Speedway, Wurth 400:
Chevy manufacturer win (2.15)
Hendrick winning team (2.50)
William Byron top five finish (1.76)
Chase Elliott top ten finish (2.00)
Ryan Blaney h2h win v Chase Briscoe (1.62)
Final Thoughts
Andor’s second arc of their season was equally as impressive as their first storylines. While slower in pace and what felt smaller in scope, these next trio of episodes did very well in expanding the galaxy from the show with excellent monologues and tense moments. I am excited to see how the show continues onward with its third arc next week, it is a true masterful story for Star Wars, quickly moving into my top favorite TV shows of all-time.
I saw Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* (2025) last night. For the MCU, this was a very fun movie to watch and felt like a strong entry into the franchise. I won’t divulge spoilers further, but I did rate the film a 4/5 stars on my Letterboxd. Excited for the rest of the summer movie blockbuster slate ahead, as this was a fun opening film.
Finally, this weekend is the series finale of The Righteous Gemstones. Danny McBride’s hilarious comedy show on HBO has been wonderful to watch over the past few years and I am excited to see how it caps things off for these hysterical cast of characters. And now we begin the campaign for the Uncle Baby Bill spin-off show, lol.
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.