USL Odds, April 25
The start of the Jagermeister Cup matches this weekend, as everyone in USL are looking for their "Shot at Glory"
Today begins a new era for the Jagermeister Cup! After how fun the tournament was to keep up with last season, seeing it expand to include USL Championship clubs this year is a wonderful change for this season. With the six groups set in regional pairings, in a mixture of both USLC and USL1 clubs together, many of these games might be rather tough to predict—and we might see how much closer together clubs across both leagues are to each other in terms of quality.
Of note, the wagers of picking results from below, will be the 90’ outcome. Matches that end in a draw in this competition, will result in a penalty shootout (but these picks below will not be picking winners of those shootouts in the event of a tie). Also of note, tiebreakers in the group stage standings favor those sides with high amount of goals scored, so some of the matches of this group stage might see high-scorelines.
A further note: Depending on your sportsbook of choice, this competition might be listed as “USL League One Cup” and the odds on offer might be more akin to what you would see on a typical USL1 league match, as to say fewer options than on a USLC match (for example, BTTS bets are not offered for these games in my sportsbook).
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, April 25.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USL: Detroit win or tie and under 2.5 goals (2.15), Phoenix v Sacramento BTTS and over 2.5 goals (2.62), Louisville win or tie, BTTS (2.20), El Paso to win or tie (1.90), AV Alta v Spokane over 2.5 goals (1.65), Phoenix v Sacramento, Indy Eleven v Charleston, Tampa Bay v Louisville all BTTS (5.58)
Beyond USL: Brighton v Brentford and Aston Villa v Newcastle BTTS, Charlotte win v San Diego (2.30), Chicago v Cincinnati over 2.5 goals (1.75), Leclerc H2H win v Hamilton
Elo Ratings
*The Elo ratings above will only take into account league games played, not Jagermeister Cup games. Perhaps including Jagermeister Cup games is something to consider as a separate record in the future.
USL Jagermeister Cup
North Carolina v Charlotte
1.50 - 3.80 - 5.50
Both sides having recently met in the US Open Cup, which saw North Carolina win 3-1 to advance to the Round of 32, can give us a good indication of how this match should likely play out again on repeat. Charlotte have been involved in some high-scoring matches in cup competitions this year, as their three USOC matches ended in BTTS and over 2.5 goals. However, dating back to last season, Charlotte has just one win in their last eight road games. I’m favoring the hosts in this one to get a result, but for the Independence to at least find the back of the net.
Bet: North Carolina win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (1.86)
Detroit v Pittsburgh
1.75 - 3.25 - 4.20
For someone who is a fan of “Lilleyball”, would I be bold to say that Detroit City of this season is playing almost the spiritual successor to the longtime Pittsburgh Riverhounds system from their manager? Detroit’s start to the year as been stunning, just one defeat on the season, and they enter this match off the back of three consecutive wins. Pittsburgh meanwhile are still searching for their first road result since 2024, and USL Plots on Bluesky correctly called out last week to not back Pittsburgh on the road in their eventual loss to Loudoun.
I won’t be picking a similar bet this week as I did last week on the Riverhounds, especially with Detroit at Keyworth. Back the home side in this one.
Bet: Detroit win or tie, under 2.5 goals (1.86)
Hartford v Portland
1.53 - 3.75 - 5.00
Though Hartford finally picked up their first win on the season over Birmingham this past weekend, they surely did not want to face Portland Hearts of Pine in this competition, so soon after their Cupset exit from the USOC weeks prior. Portland themselves are still looking for their first win in regulation across all competitions since the first round of the USOC, this season.
Hartford should likely be more up for this match than they were in the identical USOC fixture, but I think the better odds lie with Portland to grab a result in this game, with some goals for good measure.
Bet: Portland win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (7.00)
Lexington v Loudoun
2.30 - 3.10 - 2.80
Don’t look now, but Lexington have not won a match since March 19th (in the USOC) and have to go back to March 8th to find their last win in the league (against Hartford though). Safe to say that Lexington’s move to USLC has not been all too ideal of beginnings. Though a pair of 0-0 results against Las Vegas and Monterey Bay over their last two games has seen the club keep consecutive clean sheets in games of the same season for the first time since March 2024. On the other side, Loudoun keeps finding a way to pick up results, as the side has yet to lose to a team not named Louisville City, this season. In all eight of Loudoun’s wins across all competitions, they have scored multiple goals and six of those games were over 2.5 goals scored.
While I think Loudoun will win this match, I worry about how much Lexington might contribute to the scoring to help us get over 2.5 goals, Loudoun to win is the safer option.
Bet: Loudoun to win (2.80)
Scoreline wager: Loudoun wins 2-0 (13.00)
Naples v Charleston
3.60 - 3.50 - 1.80
In one of my more anticipated matches of the weekend, the Charleston Battery make the trip to Florida to take on FC Naples, with the hosts being one of the USL1 surprise outfits to open the season. Charleston were able to pick up their first win on the road since July 2024, last week against Indy Eleven, to make it four wins in a row across all competitions. Naples had their first ever defeat in 90’ in club history last week as they fell 0-1 to Knoxville at home.
Despite that outcome, Naples are still a very talented team who can frustrate Charleston in this match, but I would classify this Battery side as still among the upper echelon of USLC, and a team who should get all three points in this match.
Bet: Charleston to win in 90’ (1.80)
Madison v Indy Eleven
2.75 - 3.20 - 2.30
A pair of sides looking for that one result to get kickstart their season, and perhaps that opportunity lies here in the Jagermeister Cup. Indy Eleven have gone just one win in their last five games played, and have yet to beat a team aside from Miami this season. Forward Madison have seen their last five games played in all competitions be BTTS, but only three of those games went over 2.5 goals. With both sides searching for a result, I think a draw is going to be the most fair outcome to wager on this match—plus some of these games have to end up going to penalties this week, right?
Bet: Draw (3.20)
Knoxville v Tulsa
1.72 -3.40 - 4.33
One of the key advantages to find in these group stage cup matches are going to be those USL1 clubs who can pull off upsets against USLC teams, and getting those results at good odds. I believe this Knoxville team, who currently have the highest Elo ratings of any team in USL1 at the moment, holds a very good possibility at upsetting Tulsa this weekend. However, Tulsa has quietly been putting together a good start to their campaign this season as well, picking up a 4-1 win on the road against a frustrating to face Las Vegas team. It was Tulsa first time since October 2023 that they scored 4 goals in a match.
Shockingly, Knoxville are heavy favorites in this, and playing at home, off the back of a massive win in Naples, Knoxville can do enough to get a result in this one, but the more favorable odds might be siding with Tulsa.
Bet: Tulsa win or tie (1.90)
Louisville v Richmond
1.48 - 4.20 - 5.00
I mentioned it on this week’s USL Show, but this is a matchup of the weekend that I am very much looking forward to because it hearkens back to the days of the old USL Pro era of the league, when I first started covering the league. Louisville and Richmond have not met in a match since August 2018 (which was a 6-0 win for Louisville in City Stadium I may add)—or when the sixth Mission: Impossible movie was in theaters! In fact, Louisville is unbeaten in matches against the Kickers all-time, seven wins and two draws. In all matches played in Louisville, Richmond have been outscored 12-2 in that time.
Louisville have started the year as they typically have, unbeaten and being one of the USLC’s best teams. However, Richmond have looked like a team reborn this year, especially with Darwin Espinal scoring goals at will, as he has five on the season (if bet365 would offer player to score odds for USL, I would love to wager on Espinal goals anytime, but alas). Richmond could very well turn this into a high-scoring affair at Lynn Family Stadium, but I still have too much belief in this Louisville team for the hosts to lose this match.
Bet: Louisville win, over 2.5 goals (2.20)
Tormenta v Greenville
2.30 - 3.25 - 2.70
I have been sounding the alarm for a few weeks now, but I am still very concerned with how Greenville have started this season, and the Triumph having lost four of their last five games across all competition has not helped things (of note, their last three games played have been under 2.5 goals). For the hosts, Tormenta have been reliable for one wager this year, games going over 2.5 goals, as eight of their nine matches in all competitions this year have hit the over. On just two occasions have Tormenta been held to one goal or fewer.
I am not sure if Triumph will be able to break this recent bad run of form they have found themselves in, or rather I am still concerned about wagering on them, but I do have more faith in Tormenta to get the result in another high-scoring game.
Bet: Tormenta to win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (2.90)
Tampa Bay v Miami
1.60 - 3.60 - 4.75
One scheduling quirk this competition will provide, are the opportunities for teams to play each other so soon after matchups in the league. Tampa Bay ground out a 2-1 win on the road against Miami in their last meeting on March 22nd, but it was the Rowdies lone win in 90’ in their last six matches played. Miami meanwhile has slowly started to put things together as a team as of late, in spite of their exit in the USOC recently, they have managed to win back to back matches in the league for the first time since 2023 (much similar to Tulsa ending a long drought themselves). I have a feeling the Miami team we will see this weekend will be different than the one that face the Rowdies a month ago.
That being said, something about cup matches can help turn around a season for a team, while the results in the league may be disappointing, a fresh competition might do wonders to lift the spirits and morale of a team to turn their attention towards in the meantime—does this sound like any certain English club from this season right now haha? All of this to say, I actually think Tampa Bay can pick up a result from this match and give a morale boosting performance to continue their long homestand through April and May.
Bet: Tampa Bay to win in 90’ (1.60)
Texoma v El Paso
3.75 - 3.60 - 1.75
While they were able to get their first points on the board this past weekend as a club, away at Madison, Texoma still have a long way to go in my book. El Paso have looked much improved under Cabrera versus where they were this time last season. Still searching for their first win in club history, Texoma hosting the USL Championship club might have to keep waiting. But wouldn’t it be totally Locomotive to lose this match? El Paso should find the opening goal and see that enough to start their group play with three points.
Bet: El Paso to score first and El Paso to win in 90’ (1.95)
New Mexico v Omaha
1.50 - 4.10 - 5.00
The match to watch of the later hour games on Saturday, as the reigning USL1 champions take on the regular season winners of the Western Conference from last season, in a first ever meeting between the pair. New Mexico have gone unbeaten in their last six games across all competition, four of those being 1-0 wins for the hosts. Omaha meanwhile have been buoyed by their run in the USOC, knocking out Des Moines Menace and San Antonio in consecutive rounds.
New Mexico at home is a tough place to enter, as they have yet to lose at home this season. But, I am starting to garner more belief that Omaha would be able to get a result out of this match, possibly even on penalties.
Bet: Omaha win or tie, under 2.5 goals (3.75)
Scoreline bet if you think New Mexico gets another 1-0 win, is 8.00 odds.
Orange County v Las Vegas
2.10 - 3.10 - 3.25
I also spoke to it during this week’s USL Show open floor discussion at the end of the episode, but while it’s getting results—much similar to how Scott Parker’s Burnley got results in the Championship their promotion campaign season—Las Vegas is just a truly tough to watch club this year. Four of the six league matches for Las Vegas this year have been under 2.5 goals, and only twice this season across all competitions have the Lights managed to score multiple goals (not winning either match I may add). But that is the style of matches you are to expect against this year’s Las Vegas team, if they play their own game, it will be tough to get a result against them. That is where I think Orange County needs to take advantage here, if they can score multiple goals, and early, they can hold off a struggling to score Las Vegas offense.
But I think the Lights defense proves frustrating for the neutral viewers once again.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.61)
Phoenix v San Antonio
2.37 - 3.20 - 2.62
Another match this weekend being played so soon after these clubs last met, as Phoenix would run out 2-1 winners against San Antonio away on April 6th. It was a spirited 3-2 comeback win for San Antonio last time out against Colorado Springs, as SAFC found themselves 0-2 down at halftime, but a red card to the reigning league champions eventually saw the Texan club prevail. Phoenix had a come from behind result themselves last match, clawing back a draw from being down 2-0 against Sacramento—something, something 2-0 lead is the most dangerous in soccer.
With five of the last six games of this series being over 2.5 goals, I am willing to pursue that wager once more, but perhaps to give more favorable odds, picking San Antonio win or tie is the route to go.
Bet: San Antonio win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (2.80)
Sacramento v AV Alta
1.40 - 4.10 - 6.25
AV Alta has the strange scheduling quirk, given how spread many USL1 league matches have seemingly been this season, of playing back to back Jagermeister Cup games over their next two fixtures. It does not get any tougher than facing one of the premier USL clubs of their state, as Alta make the trip up to Sacramento and face Republic to open this group stage. I will be very curious how Alta approach this match knowing that they have another group stage fixture, against Las Vegas, next Wednesday. These two games can really set the tone for how Alta’s Jagermeister Cup prospects are looking to start the season.
While Sacramento’s start to the season has been more of a mixed bag under Neill Collins—having blown a 2-0 lead to Phoenix last time out in the league was not an ideal outcome—I have to imagine Republic will use this match as a “get right” game to kickstart their season. Six of Sacramento’s seven league games until now have seen both sides score, for AV Alta it is three of their five league games played has both teams scoring. While I think Republic can win this one in 90’, Alta can frustrate Sacramento in this fixture, possibly even grabbing the opening goal.
Bet: Sacramento to win in 90’ (1.40)
Westchester v Rhode Island
No odds as of writing
This Group 4 of the cup is going to be fiercely competitive and one filled with geographic rivals fighting to advance. Rhode Island, the reigning USLC Eastern Conference champs, have started off the 2025 campaign slowly (not too dissimilar from their slow start in 2024 though). Westchester’s maiden season has seen some good results—their spirited 4-4 draw with Richmond last week, the 3-1 dismantling of Texoma in March—mixed with some poor performances—losing 2-0 away at AV Alta.
Rhode Island, much like Tampa Bay, seems like a club who can use the success of the cup competitions to bolster their league form elsewhere, as RIFC have advanced to the Round of 32 in the USOC, so there is still a quality team in there. While Westcheseter may have scored four against Richmond, and credit to them to never give up in that match last time out, but it’s now been three games without a win across all competitions. I think the hosts should score, but it should be the USLC side prevailing in 90’, in the end.
Bet: Rhode Island win in 90’, Over 2.5 goals
Birmingham v Chattanooga
No odds as of writing
In a match where I thought Birmingham would kick on with their new manager bounce last weekend and get the win, the Legion would come up short against Hartford, handing the latter their first win of the season off a 1-0 scoreline. Chattanooga grabbed plenty of headlines in the USOC with their win on penalties over crosstown rivals, Chattanooga FC, and picked up another win on penalties over Las Vegas in the next round to set up a fixture with the state’s MLS team in Nashville. As said in previous articles, if there is a team to watch for chaos in USL, it is the Chattanooga Red Wolves.
This match relies on how much faith are you placing into Birmingham to find a much needed result, and how many goals the Red Wolves might be able to score past the Legion. I think there are goals to be had in this fixture, but a result might be tougher to predict. Let’s make this our “plenty of goals” match of the weekend.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Spokane v Oakland
No odds as of writing
The last Jagermeister Cup match of the weekend has USLC side Oakland Roots making their second trip to the state of Washington in two weeks, as they were last here for their USOC exit against Tacoma defiance on April 15th. In league play, Spokane have recently picked up back to back wins for the first time since September 2024, and began this season with just two defeats in all competitions—strangely, both Spokane and Oakland lost to Tacoma in the USOC.
For the two decent results I have seen from Oakland lately, wins over Tulsa and Orange County, Spokane still strikes me as a team to watch in USL1 this year. I would actually select the hosts to get the win this weekend in regular time.
Bet: Spokane to win in 90’
Parlays
ML Parlay:
North Carolina, Detroit, Louisville (3.88)
Tampa Bay, El Paso, Sacramento (3.92)
Double Chance Parlay:
Portland or tie, Tulsa or tie, Omaha or tie (9.87)
Over/Under 2.5 goals Parlay:
Louisville v Richmond, Texoma v El Paso, Sacramento v AV Alta all over 2.5 goals (5.13)
Detroit v Pittsburgh, Lexington v Loudoun, Orange County v Las Vegas all under 2.5 goals (4.39)
Underdog Parlay:
Tulsa or tie, San Antonio or tie (2.86)
Loudoun ML and Las Vegas win or tie (4.48)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws Parlay (all matches Friday and Saturday end 90’ without a draw, “Home or Away double chance” selected): 21.94
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
Premier League:
Liverpool -2.5 spread against Tottenham Hotspur (2.50)
Salah to score 2 or more goals (2.87)
Wolves, Newcastle and Fulham ML (2.86)
Bournemouth v Manchester United BTTS (1.70)
Elsewhere in England and Scotland:
FA Cup:
Aston Villa and Manchester City both to qualify (2.20)
Though Nottingham Forest to qualify at 3.00 odds is tempting
EFL:
Leeds ML v Bristol City (1.60)
Leyton Orient v Wycombe BTTS (1.80)
Wrexham ML v Charlton (2.25)
Scotland:
Aberdeen v Hibernian BTTS (1.66)
Ayr United and Livingston ML (2.47)
Europe:
Copa del Rey: Barcelona to lift the trophy, BTTS (2.25)
Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen ML, Bayern Munich ML and Over 2.5 total goals (2.03)
MLS:
Charlotte ML, Columbus v San Jose Over 2.5 goals (2.58)
Cincinnati and San Diego ML (2.79)
Nashville v Chicago BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (2.00)
NASCAR at Talladega, YellaWood 500:
*Of note, this is a wildly chaotic race every visit to Talladega. This track is known for its huge wrecks that could ruin a drivers’ day in an instant, so take extreme caution to any wagers made for this event.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr top ten finish (2.40)
Ford Winning Manufacturer (2.50)
Erik Jones to beat Ty Gibbs (1.86)
William Byron to beat Kyle Larson (1.86)
Final Thoughts
Andor season two is here! It’s three episode premiere this week has brought a welcomed return to one of my favorite Star Wars projects of the franchise. Having watched the first three episodes of the season, I can say it is living up to the hype and is exceeding my expectations. Give it a watch if you enjoyed the first season!
Thank you for reading and have a great weekend! Best of luck to your wagers!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.