USL Odds, April 18
A three day weekend, following plenty of midweek US Open Cup action. Lots to wager on in the 72 hours ahead!
It was a phenomenal week for us last week with numerous bets having paid off, including two wagers of 5.00 odds! After a busy week of USL v USL matchups in the third round of the US Open Cup—see the Round of 32 draw results here and check out John Morrissey’s Third Round Superlatives article too—we are back with league play with a full three day weekend ahead for us! Teams on new managerial bounces, other teams with ongoing streaks of both good and bad results, it’s all to play for.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, April 18.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Lexington v Las Vegas Tied at halftime and Las Vegas under 1.5 goals (2.70), Charleston win or tie and BTTS (2.50), Loudoun wins and under 4.5 total goals (5.00), San Antonio v Miami BTTS (2.10), Monterey Bay win or tie and BTTS (2.70)
USL1: Charlotte v Madison draw (3.25), Naples win or tie, Tormenta to win and Tormenta first goal, AV Alta to win, Spokane to cover -1.5
Beyond USL: Wolves ML v Tottenham Hotspur (2.20), Newcastle v Manchester United BTTS and over 2.5 goals (2.00), Dunfermline ML v Queen’s Park (2.00), Frankfurt ML v Heidenheim (1.72), Barcelona/Real Madrid ML (2.10), Vancouver ML v Austin (1.90), McLaren double podium (1.40), Kyle Larson top three finish (2.45), Denny Hamlin top five finish (1.80), Hamlin top Toyota driver (2.40), Larson to win stage one (5.00)
Elo Ratings
Note: 1100 and 1000 are considered average Elo ratings in USLC and USL1 respectively.
USL Championship
Detroit v Rhode Island
2.20 - 3.30 - 2.80
It took a while to get going, but Detroit City advanced past Westchester off the back of three goals scored in the second half to get the win. The side has quietly pulled themselves into the top three of the conference this year to start. Meanwhile, Rhode Island advanced in the USOC as well, but their league form has been more tricky to figure out. In spite of a 3-0 win away at Oakland last time out in the league, they began the year winless in their first three games. Both of the meetings between these clubs last year netted results for Detroit, both of which were games under 2.5 goals. At home in Keyworth, I think Detroit has the edge in a tight, low-scoring affair.
Bet: Detroit win or tie, Under 2.5 goals (2.15)
Hartford v Birmingham
2.20 - 3.40 - 2.75
Birmingham looked like a much better side, after having their first match ever after the Tommy Soehn era last week, in a 3-1 win over El Paso at home to pick up their first win on the season, with interim manager Eric Avila at the helm. Hartford meanwhile had their match last week against Indy Eleven postponed, but I still have numerous question marks around this team. Though this is a Hartford team who have not lost to the Legion since April 2023, their winless start to the league campaign, including getting shutout in three matches, leaves a lot to be desired.
As an underdog away from home, I think Birmingham get a second consecutive win on the season, their first back-to-back wins since June 2024, and it applies more pressure onto Brendan Burke’s job at Hartford.
Bet: Birmingham to win (2.75)
Oakland v Orange County
2.20 - 3.40 - 2.75
A pair of clubs who suffered exits from the USOC in the midweek to lower-tiered opposition. Orange County losing the local derby to AV Alta on penalties while Oakland lost to Tacoma Defiance of MLSNP. What awaits us this weekend is a series of roughly even history between the clubs. Orange County holds the slight edge on the series with a 6-2-4 W-D-L record, but one hallmark of this series has been its goals, six of the last seven games of the matchup have been over 2.5 goals. October 2021 was the last time Orange County have won in Oakland though.
I trust OC more to get a result this week more than a Roots team still finding their footing, but perhaps some of that high-scoring goals magic can find its way back into this fixture.
Bet: Orange County win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (3.60)
Phoenix v Sacramento
2.45 - 3.20 - 2.55
Another pair of clubs who advanced in the cup this past week, setting up matches against MLS opposition in the next round. What we are not used to seeing is both of these clubs near the basement of the Western Conference as they each enter this match in 10th and 11th in the table, each with just one win on the year. Sacramento have not won a match in Phoenix since May 2018, and are winless on the year since March 8th. For both of these clubs, four of their five games this year have been BTTS. Let’s make this our “lots of goals” bet of the week.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.62)
Loudoun v Pittsburgh
2.05 - 3.25 - 3.10
In one of the more lopsided all-time meetings of the weekend, Pittsburgh have won 13 of the 15 matchups they have played against Loudoun, and as mentioned on the latest USL Show, Loudoun have not beaten Pittsburgh since June 2021. While Loudoun have been quite fun to watch on the field this year, their off-pitch news took the headlines this week. The Athletic’s Pablo Maurer had an excellent article chronicling a story that needs to get more attention this year in the shortcomings of the Loudoun ownership group in the stewardship of the club that I recommend you read.
But back to the match itself, I think Pittsburgh getting a result here, given the history of the fixture, should be your wager this weekend at minimum, but I am also adding over 1.5 goals in the parlay as well.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, Over 1.5 goals (2.25)
Indy Eleven v Charleston
2.40 - 3.30 - 2.50
This match has seen Charleston win the last three meetings, but in a weird streak, the last six times this match has avoided a draw, the winning team has scored at least four goals in this fixture. My hesitation towards picking the Battery though is that their record away from home has been woeful, as they have not had a win on the road since July 2024. In the league this year, Indy Eleven have had all four matches end in BTTS, with three of those games going over 3.5 goals! While I think Charleston are the better side, I believe the odds of an Indy Eleven result should be considered here this week. If you’re so bold, add on over 3.5 goals as well!
Bet 1: Indy Eleven win or tie, Over 3.5 goals (3.75)
Lexington v Monterey Bay
1.83 - 3.60 - 3.50
A pair of clubs who had the entire midweek to rest due to their earlier exits from the US Open Cup in the second round, Lexington and Monterey Bay square off in one of the longer Western Conference road trips of the season. Monterey Bay continues to look the part of a top club in the league this season, as John Morrissey detailed in his latest USL Championship Tactics Show this week, as they dispatched of the defending champions, Colorado Springs, 2-1 last week. Lexington meanwhile could not break down the Las Vegas Lights’ stifling defense and had to settle for a 0-0 draw in a match with a combined xGt of 0.69 (nice) as per American Soccer Analysis—very much a match that could’ve been an email.
However, John Morrissey also wrote in his latest Back Four article how Lexington feels very close to being the team Terry Boss wants them to play as. I am just not sure if the matchup against an in-form Monterey Bay team is going to be the fixture where we see that vision reach a fruition. But, MBFC have been involved three BTTS games this year, so I reckon both sides find a goal in this match, while leaning advantage towards the California club. Of note, Monterey Bay have won every match they have played this year when scoring first (three wins).
Bet 1: Monterey Bay win or tie, BTTS (3.00)
Bet 2: Monterey Bay to score first (2.62)
Miami v North Carolina
4.75 - 3.40 - 1.65
What a glamor tie North Carolina drew in the US Open Cup in the midweek, drawing the state’s MLS club, Charlotte FC, in the next round at home. It remains to be seen if NCFC can make it 2-for-2 against clubs from Charlotte in the Open Cup. But back to the league as NCFC make the trip down to Miami this weekend. In this series, North Carolina have won three of the last four, and each time they’ve won, they did so scoring three goals or more. I am starting to believe a bit more in Miami with each passing match. While the team still are not amazing, it certainly feels like they can put up a fight in many of their games as of late.
I’d favor North Carolina to get a result in this one, but my main pick for this match would be under 2.5 goals.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (2.00)
Tampa Bay v Louisville
2.80 - 3.40 - 2.15
Both sides were able to advance in the USOC from the midweek, setting up highly anticipated ties against MLS clubs in the Round of 32. The Rowdies showed lots of fight to get the result against Naples in a very long penalty shootout, while Louisville has been looking like their usual selves, the class of the USL Championship. This is one series for Louisville that they can say they’ve met their match, as it’s an even seven wins apiece and two draws in this fixture. Strangely though, Louisville have not won in Al Lang Stadium since July 2018, or when Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) hit theaters. But, five of the seven all-time meetings between these sides at Al Lang have been BTTS too. Leaning Louisville to get a hard fought result in this one.
I am a big fan of the Louisville Kentucky Derby kits as well!
Bet: Louisville win or tie, BTTS (2.20)
Colorado Springs v El Paso
1.75 - 3.70 - 3.70
Both clubs picked up much needed wins in the Open Cup during the midweek to advance to the round of 32. For Colorado Springs, it required extra time but they were able to see off Knoxville to advance, in another match this year that ended up being BTTS for the Switchbacks. El Paso meanwhile would advance past rivals New Mexico, winning the shootout and leaving Albuquerque with a positive result for the first time since June 2023. In this series, six of the last seven meetings has seen BTTS and five of those games went over 2.5 goals. In eight of the matches El Paso have scored in this year across all competitions, seven of those games saw El Paso find the back of the net first. However, in the previous seven matches of this series, Colorado Springs have scored the opening goal in those six of those games.
I’d look for the hosts to grab the opening goal, possibly in the first half hour of the match, but for El Paso to fight their way back into the match in a chaotic fixture.
Bet 1: Colorado Springs to score first, BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (3.50)
Bet 2: El Paso to win or tie (1.90)
Las Vegas v Tulsa
2.00 - 3.40 - 3.10
Do you know what’s shocking about the history of this match? Through seven all-time meetings, we have had six draws! That’s insane, the one non-draw match was won by Tulsa. Some of this history is Tulsa changing conferences a few times, but these teams just cannot seem to be separated when facing each other, but can Las Vegas notch its first win ever against Tulsa? I feel with knowing that one stat, there is only one outcome to pick for this match, perhaps even throw under 2.5 goals on it if you are feeling risky.
Bet: Draw (3.40)
USL1
Richmond v Westchester
2.30 - 3.40 - 2.62
Westchester held out for as long as they could against Detroit in the USOC during the midweek, having the match tied with 5’ left in the 90’ to go. However, it was a tough break for the New York club to concede two goals past the 85’ to end up losing and exiting the cup. Richmond had the week to rest and have been on an interesting pattern in the league, as through their six games played, they’ve alternated win and loss in each of the games. Well, the Kickers lost last week, so if the pattern is to continue, that would be the Virginia club picking up a win this week.
Bet: Richmond to win (2.30)
Chattanooga v Greenville
3.50 - 3.70 - 1.80
I am still very hesitant on Greenville this year, the season has not started off entirely as they would like, though the same could be said towards Chattanooga who, in spite of their advancements in the USOC, are still looking for their first win in the league this year. This series has seen its last six matches go BTTS, with all of those games being over 2.5 goals, with five of those games going over 3.5 goals! The visitors have not lost any of the last three matches between these teams as well. I think this one should be wagered purely on goals to happen.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.60)
Naples v Knoxville
2.20 - 3.25 - 2.90
The match of the weekend for USL1 in my opinion! Both sides had valiant efforts that came up short in the US Open Cup this week, exiting on penalties for Naples to Tampa Bay and losing to Colorado Springs for Knoxville. An argument can be made for these two teams being the best two sides in USL1 at the moment and this match this weekend will go a long way in setting the pecking order for the league for the foreseeable future. This certainly feels like the first meeting of the year for the “unstoppable force meets the immovable object” type of match.
But I picked Naples in the midweek predictions and I am sticking with it.
Bet: Naples to win (2.20)
Madison v Texoma
1.30 - 5.25 - 7.50
Texoma are in absolute free fall to open the season, four consecutive defeats in the league, 12 goals conceded, it feels like there is no end in sight for the expansion club’s early season woes. It actually prompted a question earlier this week on Bluesky from Walkin 90 Pod:
(Of note, I would pick Naples in those two options).
Madison needed an 88’ equalizer to rescue a draw against Charlotte last week—and cash a wager for us as well—in what has been an up and down start to the season for the Wisconsin club. Since their 0-2 defeat to league leaders, Naples, on March 15, Madison have scored in every math they have played in. This pick is mainly rooted in fading Texoma until otherwise, but I am backing a Madison win this week and another -1.5 spread pick against Texoma.
Bet: Madison to cover -1.5 (1.875)
AV Alta v Spokane
2.50 - 3.40 - 2.40
This match is an underrated pick for a match to watch on the weekend. AV Alta advanced in the USOC during the midweek to keep the dream alive in their maiden season, notching a win on penalties vs Orange County. Spokane has been one of the three teams—Naples and Knoxville rounding out these three—that I have been watching to start the year. I am not offered odds on BTTS, but if you have that option, I would take that bet. In the meantime for me, I would say this match ends over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.65)
Charlotte v Tormenta
No odds as of writing
The last eight matches of this series have been BTTS, but only half of those went over 2.5 goals. As we said on the show this past week, if you watch Tormenta, you’re going to be in for a chaotic time, their first five games in the league has seen a combined 19 goals scored and conceded, versus Charlotte’s just four goals combined in four games. Tormenta have not won in Charlotte since August 2022, but I think this is a match to wager on there being plenty of goals in, with Tormenta more likely to get the result.
Bet: Tormenta to win or tie, Over 2.5 goals
Parlays
ML Parlay:
North Carolina, Detroit, Charleston ML (9.07)
Richmond, Naples, Madison ML (6.57)
BTTS Parlay:
Phoenix v Sacramento, Indy Eleven v Charleston, Tampa Bay v Louisville all BTTS (5.58)
Underdog Parlay:
Birmingham and Orange County ML (7.56)
Kaylor Hodges No-Draws in USLC Parlay™: 11.44
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
Premier League:
Brighton v Brentford and Aston Villa v Newcastle BTTS
Fulham win or tie v Chelsea and over 1.5 goals (1.86)
Manchester United win v Wolves (2.25)
Liverpool -2.5 spread v Leicester (2.425)
Nottingham Forest win v Tottenham Hotspur (2.70)
Elsewhere in England and Scotland:
Aberdeen v Hibernian BTTS (1.75)
Hamilton Academical ML v Queen’s Park (1.80)
Falkirk ML v Raith (1.53)
Europe:
Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen ML (2.16)
Augsburg v Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund v Borussia Monchengladbach BTTS (2.55)
Barcelona and Atletico Madrid ML (1.99)
MLS:
Columbus v Miami BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (1.80)
Charlotte win v San Diego (2.30)
Chicago v Cincinnati over 2.5 goals (1.75)
Vancouver ML v St Louis City SC (2.80)
Other Sports:
Yankees vs Rays over on runs for each game of their weekend series should be a good bet since both teams are familiar with the ballpark that tends to produce high-scoring games (usually the runs line will be around 8.5 to 9 runs on games)
Formula 1, Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
No odds as of writing
McLaren double podium
Leclerc H2H win v Hamilton
Bearman points finish
Final Thoughts
The season finale of Daredevil: Born Again on Disney+ this week was excellent. Fantastic action, intense moments, it sets up a wonderful second season to debut in March 2026! All eyes now turn to season two of Andor next week! The newest Fantastic Four trailer this week looked quite good as well!
I’ve been going through and ranking my favorite Wes Anderson movies on my Letterboxd as I work my way through his filmography. It’s tough to beat Grand Budapest Hotel as my favorite Wes Anderson film!
Have a great weekend and best of luck to your wagers!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.