USL Odds, April 11
New manager bounces, a full slate of USL matches on the weekend, plenty of odds on offer!
It is a packed weekend of USL action ahead as we have plenty of fun fixtures and opportunities for interesting wagers over the next 72 hours! With two of our parlay picks hitting last week, this weekend could offer another fun chance for a huge parlay payout! In the USLC, two clubs will be facing the possibility of a new manager bounce this weekend as well, adding more intrigue into how those clubs move forward on their seasons ahead.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, April 11.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Loudoun to win (1.66), Charleston v Tampa Bay BTTS/over 2.5 goals (2.20), Indy Eleven win or tie/BTTS (2.15)
USL1: Tormenta win or tie/over 2.5 goals (2.40), Greenville to win (1.80), Naples win or tie and Naples score first (1.70)
Parlay: Charleston v Tampa Bay BTTS, Indy Eleven v North Carolina BTTS, El Paso v Lexington BTTS (4.81) | Monterey Bay or tie and AV Alta win (6.60)
Other bets: Crystal Palace v Brighton BTTS (1.66), Charlotte win or tie, Over 1.5 goals (1.57), Columbus ML and NYRB v Chicago BTTS parlay (2.55), San Diego FC ML v Seattle (2.25), McLaren both cars podium finish (1.44), Verstappen podium (1.72), William Byron top five finish (2.25), Christopher Bell to beat Bubba Wallace (1.76)
USL Championship
Hartford v Indy Eleven
2.75 - 3.40 - 2.25
I am completely onboard with fading Hartford for the time being—August 6th is when we will get Hartford v Miami for the first time this season. Just four consecutive defeats to open the season, on goal scored all year, Brendan Burke’s side have been an easy one to bet against. Only once all time have Indy Eleven been shutout by Hartford (their last meeting in September 2024), Hartford have not beaten Indy Eleven since August 2022 (973 days ago tomorrow). Until otherwise, I am picking against Hartford, but on the Indy Eleven side of the ball, they’ve had all of their games this year be BTTS and three of them over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Indy Eleven ML, Indy Eleven Over 1.5 goals (2.87)
Lexington v Las Vegas
2.10 - 3.60 - 2.90
It may be getting results but my god, at what cost? Las Vegas have seven points on the board in their first four games, but have generated the lowest xGF in the league this year, even lower than Oakland and Hartford. Antonio Nocerino’s side are picking up points, but the style of play is tough to watch to put it kindly. John Morrissey’s Back Four article this week had an excellent breakdown of the Lights as well.
At the other end of the expected goals, Lexington have generated the most xGF in the league this year, just outpacing Monterey Bay. Their move to USLC has made them a fun team to watch, but one has to wonder of their form entering the game, off the back of three consecutive defeats across all competitions, including exiting the USOC to Columbus Crew 2.
I think Las Vegas will frustrate Lexington in this match, perhaps even going into the break tied at half, but something has to give for Lexington eventually, right?
Bet: Tied at halftime, Las Vegas under 1.5 goals (2.70)
Charleston v Pittsburgh
1.80 - 3.25 - 4.33
A classic Eastern Conference matchup between two of the long-time fixtures of USL. This series has seen more draws (10) in the past ten years than either side have managed wins (8 for Charleston, 6 for Pittsburgh). What stands out to me is that in that time, only 4matches have seen the away team win, last achieved in August 2021—or when the ninth Fast & Furious movie, F9 (2021), was leaving theaters. All-time, 12 of these fixtures have had a team pick up a clean sheet as well. Given that history, I’m leaning towards Charleston to get the result at home, but Pittsburgh to also score is giving very enticing odds.
Bet: Charleston win or tie, BTTS (2.50)
Tampa Bay v Loudoun
1.66 - 3.80 - 3.90
A rather sneaky good matchup as yes, the Eastern Conference leaders, Loudoun United, make the trip to Al Lang Stadium against Tampa Bay this weekend. Loudoun are off the back of two consecutive wins in the league (and two consecutive wins against Tampa Bay in the all-time series too), and both wins came in clean sheet fashion as well—the first for Loudoun since August 2024. Tampa Bay meanwhile have only won one of their first four games in the league to start, and despite having more xGt than Charleston last week, could not come away with a win. Through all of that, it was not enough to keep Robbie Neilson’s job, as it was announced today that he had been dismissed as manager of the Rowdies.
A match that has a new manager bounce possible, much similar to another one later this weekend? Having a day’s preparedness under the interim boss, Steve Coleman, is less than ideal for the Rowdies I’m sure. While it is finally the home opener for Tampa Bay, I think having this decision made off the pitch is going to loom large over this match. Loudoun’s three all-time wins against Tampa Bay have been by a scoreline of 2-0. Loudoun has a chance for a win here.
Bet: Loudoun wins, Under 4.5 total goals (5.00)
Tulsa v Oakland
1.85 - 3.20 - 4.00
Oakland’s xGF has been the second lowest generated in the league as per American Soccer Analysis at just 2.94 through five games. Oakland have yet to win to open the season and are now on a goalless drought of 4 hours and 23 minutes, or enough time to watch all of Zack Snyder’s cut of Justice League (2021). Tulsa meanwhile have advanced to the third round of the US Open Cup, but have seen their four matches in the league all end by scores of 1-0 (with Tulsa having won three of those games).
While I’d hesitate to pick another 1-0 exact scoreline (or wager on scorelines in general), for safety, I am just picking Tulsa win to nil, extending Oakland’s goalless run further.
Bet: Tulsa win to nil (3.00)
San Antonio v Miami
1.22 - 5.75 - 8.00
San Antonio will be looking to rebound after their defeat this past Sunday against Phoenix, on national television, and a match against Miami FC might provide the perfect bounce back opportunity. What’s surprising to me on the season, both teams have nearly identical xGA at the moment, just a little under 5.00, as per American Soccer Analysis, but it is Miami with no wins and rooted to the bottom of the Eastern Conference at the moment.
Weirdly, Miami could be seen as sort of a “bogey team” against San Antonio, having won two of their three all-time meetings this year, including their last two meetings. It would be bold to call Miami to get a result in this one, but surely this Miami team finds the back of the net. But so will San Antonio and likely have enough to get a result here.
Bet: BTTS (2.10)
New Mexico v North Carolina
2.20 - 3.20 - 3.00
New Mexico have made it three wins in a row as Dennis Sanchez has his club climbing up the table in the West, welcoming North Carolina to town this weekend. This season, North Carolina has been involved in some high-scoring fixtures as four of their five matches played have been not only BTTS, but a further three have been over 2.5 goals as well. New Mexico on the other hand, are off the back of two consecutive 1-0 scorelines themselves.
Calling this match my usual “lots of goals” pick of the weekend.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.30)
Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs
2.75 - 3.10 - 2.45
I am starting to gain more and more belief into this Monterey Bay team. Going into Keyworth is a tall task for most any team in USL, and to leave with a clean sheet and a point on the road is quite the achievement. Monterey Bay host the reigning league champions this week, with Colorado Springs fresh off an idle week. Historically, this series has been quite even shockingly, with Colorado Springs on six wins to Monterey Bay’s four in the ten all-time meetings (all of which were at home). I think Colorado Springs found their footing last time out with a win over Indy Eleven, I’d pick this game to be BTTS (as all Switchbacks games have been this year), but Monterey Bay continues to just impress me with results.
Bet: Monterey Bay win or tie, BTTS (2.70)
Orange County v Sacramento
2.75 - 3.30 - 2.25
Through their last 28 meetings, Sacramento has barely gained the edge over Orange County, with 11 wins to Orange County’s 10. The memorable moment from this fixture last season was Orange County’s goalkeeper, Colin Shutler’s tying goal to rescue a point at 90+6’. In their last four trips to Orange County, Sacramento has picked up a result in three of them. Both sides are producing lots of xGF at the moment, each side in the top seven of the league right now.
Picking this match to end in a scoring draw.
Bet: Draw, BTTS (4.75)
Phoenix v Detroit
2.25 - 3.20 - 2.90
In front of a national audience last Sunday, Phoenix would pick up their first win on the year while also ending the undefeated run of Western Conference leaders, San Antonio as well. Detroit meanwhile took a hard fought point against Monterey Bay at home in a match that saw both teams generate under 1.00 xGt. Phoenix has been a club that could arguably say they’ve been unlucky with many of their results this year while Detroit are performing justly around where they would be expected thus far. Last meeting between these two clubs was a 1-1 draw in 2024, with Detroit’s last trip to Phoenix being a 5-0 win for Rising.
This match’s goals tally for me depends entirely on Phoenix and if they can produce, but I do think both teams score in this one, leaning the way of Phoenix for the result.
Bet: Phoenix win or tie, Under 1.5 goals for Detroit (1.50)
Birmingham v El Paso
2.25 - 3.25 - 2.80
It’s a USL Show derby this Sunday as Kaylor’s Birmingham hosts Phil’s El Paso. Legion are still searching for their first win in 2025 while El Paso have won their last three games across all competitions. The big story entering this match is the news that Birmingham’s only manager of the past six years, Tommy Soehn, was sacked this week from the club. How will the Legion cope with the change in leadership? Will they benefit from a new manager bounce, not too dissimilar from that of El Paso who eventually got some results going their way last year.
It’s been an even split all-time, each team taking a win apiece, but both of games saw goals in them, each going BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Both clubs have conceded nearly identical xGF as per American Soccer Analysis thus far (El Paso having played a game more), but it is the positive xGD that has me siding with El Paso more in this fixture than the hosts. I will be cautious of a new manager bounce bringing about a result for Birmingham. But I picked El Paso in the latest USL Show predictions, so will stick by it.
Bet: El Paso win or tie, Over 1.5 total goals (2.00)
USL1
Charlotte v Madison
3.10 - 3.25 - 2.15
This week, John Morrissey spoke about if we should worry about Madison’s defense in his latest Back Four article. Madison’s own xGD right now is negative through three games played in the league thus far. However, Charlotte have been a tough team to try and figure out as a neutral. Advancements in the USOC to the third round, setting up a derby match v North Carolina FC next, but USL1 results that have been rather lacking. Three matches played, just one win, a 0-0 draw and a defeat in that time. One goal scored, one goal conceded. What would a Las Vegas Lights v Charlotte Independence match look like…?
This match strikes me as one that could very well be ending in a draw, but I’d worry about these pair of hot and cold teams entering this game finding some goalscoring form and grabbing all three points.
Bet: Draw (3.25)
Naples v Richmond
No odds as of writing
Richmond this year has looked like a much improved side on the team who finished in eighth in the league last season, as the Kickers defeated the reigning league champion Union Omaha at home in the midweek games, 1-0. Naples meanwhile has kept their unbeaten start in club history in tact after last week’s with a 3-0 win over Texoma. It sets up this top of the table clash this week as the premier match of USL1 this weekend. Off the back of four consecutive clean sheets, over six hours in the league without conceding a goal—or the equivalent of watching the Star Wars original trilogy in its entirety.
But can Naples continue that unbeaten run against an in-form Richmond team this weekend? I’d be very cautious at picking to continue the streak now given how long it has persisted, but I do think Naples gets the result here in this match and if they win, doing so in win to nil fashion.
Bet: Naples win or tie
Tormenta v Portland
No odds as of writing
Portland made it back to back 0-0 results in the league last week, but the headline was their advancement past New England rivals Hartford, in the USOC. However, it really felt like held on to that point for all that they could against Spokane, as they could only generate 0.14 xGF on the night. Tormenta might feel upset not to get more from their match against Chattanooga last week, but they are still one of the top five highest producing xGF clubs in the league right now.
Tormenta at home, I think Portland still struggle to generate some scoring moving forward, the hosts should get the win and get the opening goal as well.
Bet: Tormenta ML, Tormenta to score first
AV Alta v Chattanooga
No odds as of writing
AV Alta picked up their first win in the league this year with a 2-0 result over Westchester last week in their USL1 home opener—in front of a sellout crowd of 5,433. It was a great atmosphere for last week for both clubs, as both sides advanced in the USOC, AV Alta at home against LAFC 2, and Chattanooga famously in their win on PKs in the Chattanooga derby. Chattanooga would follow-up their derby win with two second half penalties to secure a draw with Tormenta.
I think we are about to see AV Alta have quite a home field advantage in the travel required for many teams to trek across the country for an away day here, and with penalties being much of the crux to the Red Wolves’ result of last week, I am backing AV Alta to get the win this week.
Bet: AV Alta ML
Spokane v Texoma
No odds as of writing
Like Hartford from USLC above, it almost feels cruel to pick on one club, but I still have just not seen anything from this Texoma team that has inspired any belief in them. Every match they have played in the league this year, they have lost it by multiple goals. Spokane tried all they could to find one goal against a defiant Portland team last week but had to settle for a 0-0 draw in the end. I think Spokane get back on track this week with a win and piles on the misery for Texoma’s opening fixtures.
Bet: Spokane to cover a spread of -1.5
Parlays
ML parlay:
Indy Eleven, Charleston, Tulsa (7.49)
BTTS parlay:
New Mexico v North Carolina, Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs, Orange County v Sacramento (5.93)
Underdog parlay:
Las Vegas and Loudoun ML (11.31)
Kaylor Hodges No Draws in USLC Bet Parlay™ (11.99)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
England:
Brighton win to nil v Leicester (2.00)
Nottingham Forest win or tie and under 2.5 total goals v Everton (2.05)
Wolves ML v Tottenham Hotspur (2.20)
Newcastle v Manchester United BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (2.00)
Double chance parlay: Sheffield United win or tie, West Brom win or tie, Sunderland win or tie, Coventry win or tie (2.44)
Wrexham ML (1.95)
Elsewhere in Europe:
Scottish Championship:
Falkirk ML v Ayr United (2.05)
Dunfermline ML v Queen’s Park (2.00)
Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich ML and Olise goal or assist v Borussia Dortmund (2.20)
Frankfurt ML v Heidenheim (1.72)
La Liga:
Barcelona and Real Madrid ML (2.10)
MLS:
Chicago v Miami BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (1.72)
Vancouver ML v Austin (1.90)
Atlanta and LAFC ML parlay (2.37)
Formula 1 - Bahrain Grand Prix
Odds are pre-qualifying
Norris to win (2.00)
McLaren double podium (1.40)
Sainz points finish (2.25)
Over 18.5 classified drivers (1.80)
NASCAR at Bristol - Food City 500
Odds are pre-qualifying
Kyle Larson top three finish (2.45)
Denny Hamlin top five finish (1.80)
Chase Elliott top ten finish (1.40)
Top Toyota Driver: Hamlin (2.40) or Bell (2.40)
Larson to win stage one (5.00)
Kyle Busch to beat Josh Berry h2h (1.86)
Brad Keselowski to beat Ty Gibbs h2h (1.90)
Final Thoughts
Check out Kaylor’s video on the Chattanooga Derby! Kaylor was fortunate enough to be able to attend the US Open Cup second round matchup between Chattanooga FC and the Chattanooga Red Wolves. Having captured the second highest attended second round US Open Cup match in the tournament’s history in this video, it is an awesome watch!
Thank you for reading, have a great weekend!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.