USL Odds, April 4
More action from the biggest league in the world! Along with F1 from Japan, NASCAR from Darlington, the Final Four, and plenty of soccer beyond USL!
Welcome to April. It was another fun midweek of US Open Cup action with plenty of intriguing results to give us a nice lead-in return to league play this weekend—go read John Morrissey’s US Open Cup reaction article from Backheeled as well! It’s a full weekend of sports to open the month, so let’s dive into the USL games to watch and wager on ahead!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, April 4th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: El Paso win or tie (1.50), San Antonio to win (3.00), Pittsburgh to win and under 3.5 goals (2.30), Birmingham exactly 0 second half goals (1.50), Monterey Bay v Phoenix BTTS and over 2.5 goals, Oakland v Las Vegas draw
USL1: Richmond v Madison over 2.5 goals, Omaha win or tie and over 2.5 goals, Westchester win or tie (1.30)
Parlays: ML Parlay of Louisville/New Mexico/Pittsburgh (3.87)
Non-USL Bets: Bayern Munich ML/Kane anytime goal/over 2.5 goals (1.95), Burnley win to nil (2.50), Birmingham City -1.5 (1.65), Blackpool v Bolton BTTS (1.66), Celtic/Hibernian/Rangers ML (2.77), Michigan State/Tennessee/Auburn/Houston Sweet 16 parlay (3.46)
USL Championship
Detroit v Monterey Bay
1.80 - 3.50 - 3.70
I am once asking, are Monterey Bay for real? Though their match was impacted by red cards against Phoenix last week, Monterey Bay have won three consecutive games for the first time since April of last season. What’s been most impressive during this run is that MBFC has scored three goals in each of these matches, first time since September 2023 that they have scored multiple goals in three consecutive games played.
Detroit had a tall task ahead of them last week with a trip to Kentucky to face Louisville, and saw a 0-2 loss. However, I would not hold this match against them too heavily, if anything, American Soccer Analysis, has showed this match to be relatively even in xG.
Keyworth is a tricky place to play, and I would not be shocked with Detroit taking care of business with this match, but Monterey Bay were on a hot streak in the league and I think it’s worth a cautious upset pick for them to get a result. However, after their defeat in the USOC midweek to open division, El Farolito, maybe the following bet choice should be viewed with much more caution. But I picked a draw in our midweek USL Show picks, so sticking with it.
Bet: Monterey Bay win or tie, Over 1.5 total goals (2.50)
Oakland v Rhode Island
2.90 - 3.75 - 1.95
Rhode Island’s longest road trip of the season, continuing their defense of their Eastern Conference championship, still on rocky form with no wins in three games. But these are not unfamiliar grounds for RIFC, who did not win any of their opening five games of last season. Oakland meanwhile, are still searching for their first win of the year as well, and it was a rather dull affair between the Roots and Las Vegas last week in a game that finished with a combined Team xGF of 0.99 on a 0-0 result as per American Soccer Analysis, though RIFC did not fair much better with just 0.37 Team xGF last week in their 2-0 loss to Loudoun.
I would hesitate to pick scorelines on USL matches, but this one being 0-0 has odds of 13.00. With these two teams in the bottom five of xGF on the year, under 2.5 goals seems like the move this week. I’m not entirely sure who I would side with if picking a result but would lean Rhode Island.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (2.05)
Loudoun v Hartford
1.66 - 3.60 - 4.20
Much like Monterey Bay from above, Loudoun have been a surprise package to start the season, as they find themselves currently second in the Eastern Conference at the moment. Hartford are in an all too familiar spot in the conference, second bottom, as they are looking to avoid losing four in a row in the league for the first time since may 2024. Loudoun were able to advance midweek in the USOC, while it was Hartford exiting against Portland Hearts of Pine on penalties, to continue their woes to start the 2025 for Burke and company.
Hartford have made the fewest xG on the season thus far for USLC, and with a trip to the upstart Loudoun United this season, I think backing the hosts is the play for this match as questions continue to be asked about this Hartford team.
Bet: Loudoun to win (1.66)
Charleston v Tampa Bay
1.80 - 3.30 - 3.80
One of the premier Eastern Conference matchups in the league takes place at Patriots Point tomorrow. This game has seen its fair share of scoring, as in 24 all-time meetings, it has gone over 2.5 goals on 11 matches, as well as having 11 matches of BTTS. Charleston had a surprise loss to North Carolina last week, their first ever defeat to the club, while Tampa Bay had an idle week off from their derby win over Miami FC.
I think the rest will help the Rowdies in having time to prepare for this match and the Battery will want to show they can perform better than what was on display in Cary last week. Making this match my “goals to be had” game this week.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.20)
Indy Eleven v North Carolina
2.05 - 3.40 - 3.10
North Carolina picked up a long awaited win over their rivals from South Carolina with a victory against Charleston last week. Indy Eleven meanwhile had a high-scoring defeat at home against Colorado Springs where a late Aodhan Quinn goal made the scoreline look more respectable, despite Indy taking the lead to open the match.
These two once NASL foes, has a weird streak in the history of this series, currently happening. North Carolina, including their history as the Carolina RailHawks (bring back the name!), have not won away at Indy Eleven since September 2014! That’s ten fixtures since that match from 2014—back when the first Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) movie was still in theaters—that NCFC have not picked up three points away at Indy Eleven. That streak alone is enough for me to back Indy Eleven to get a result in this match.
Bet: Indy Eleven win or tie, BTTS (2.15)
El Paso v Lexington
1.95 - 3.50 - 3.20
A pair of clubs with opposite experiences last week. Lexington, despite having more shots and xG than San Antonio last week, saw a two goal lead crumble into a tie at halftime and with a SAFC go-ahead goal in the second half, all three points slipped away. Meanwhile, El Paso were the beneficiaries of a second half goal last week as a goal from a corner propelled Locomotive past Hartford, in a game that probably should not have been as close the scoreline shows. Midweek, Lexington would exit the USOC against Columbus Crew 2, while El Paso made it to the third round after a 3-0 win over Ventura County FC.
It’s just Lexington’s second West coast road trip since joining USLC, but El Paso fans are still looking for their first win at home in the league since October 2024, right before Venom: The Last Dance (2024) had hit theaters. For me, I’d back Lexington more likely to get a result from this one, given that they have the most xGF generated on the season, but I have to imagine El Paso finds the back of the net themselves as well.
Bet: Lexington win or tie, BTTS (3.40)
Sacramento v Louisville
3.70 - 3.30 - 2.30
An early preview of the USL Cup final? Sacramento had a first-ever defeat to Tulsa in the history of that series, last week, and will be looking to bounce back against the Eastern Conference leaders, Louisville. These are two clubs with the history, prestige and expectations to be competing for the USLC’s top prize every season. These are two clubs currently in the top five of xGF in the league thus far, though Sacramento’s negative GD-xGD is worth mentioning.
However, all that being said, the home team has won each of the three meetings between these clubs in the past, and the last time Louisville visited Sacramento, Republic won 5-0! These games are always with goals in store, making them a true spectacle to watch, and a showcase match for USL. Louisville I think pick up a first ever result for the away team in the history of this series, and get at least a draw from this match, but let’s root for some goals as well.
Bet: Louisville win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (3.10)
Las Vegas v Orange County
1.90 - 3.40 - 3.40
Las Vegas have been a weird team for me to figure out this season, which has made them all the more frustrating to wager on. While on one hand, they have a top five GD-xGD at the moment, their xGD is a dismal -2.00, and only Hartford has generated fewer xGF than the Lights right now. The Lights’ last match against Oakland left a lot to be desired based on their xG numbers alone, mentioned above.
Orange County had last week off after their shocking at the time, 0-3 defeat to Monterey Bay at home. However, I have to imagine the time away will have OCSC eager to get back out there and add to their goals tally—each of their matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals. While the Las Vegas defense might be frustrating, Orange County should do enough to score at least once. The question lies with, which Las Vegas team shows up for this match.
Bet: BTTS (1.66)
San Antonio v Phoenix
1.65 - 3.60 - 4.20
Match on CBS on Sunday! Be sure to tune in for USL’s first match on the channel for the season! Onto the match, up until Phoenix’s 4-0 win last September, San Antonio carried a three match unbeaten streak in this fixture. In fact, it is an even six wins apiece and three draws in the all-time meeting history. San Antonio have looked phenomenal to open the year, a perfect four wins from four and the highest Elo rating in the league right now.
Are the “Mentality Monsters” back? Well, a national televised game on CBS has a perfect showcase to prove it for everyone to see? I am backing SAFC to get another win, but going bold here and thinking Phoenix can at least get one goal past this stingy SAFC defense.
Bet: San Antonio to win, BTTS (3.75)
USL1
Chattanooga v Tormenta
3.10 - 3.40 - 2.00
What a midweek of action in the USOC for both of these clubs. Tormenta with a chaotic 3-2 win over Foro SC—real talk, does the Foro SC logo look like the Fanatics logo to anyone? Meanwhile, all eyes of the round were on the Chattanooga Derby, that saw the Red Wolves knock out their cross-town rivals, Chattanooga FC, on penalties, in front of 12,000+ fans. It was a true spectacle of a match with lots of USL Show coverage coming soon from this fixture.
But back to this league fixture, both clubs seem to be prone to a chaotic match in this fixture, as five of the last six matches between these clubs saw over 2.5 goals. I’d lean Tormenta to get a result here, but mostly am backing goals for this match.
Bet: Tormenta to win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.40)
Greenville v Charlotte
1.80 - 3.70 - 3.50
Shockingly, through 11 meetings of these teams, there has yet to be a draw—six victories for Charlotte, five for Greenville. Greenville were knocked out by One Knoxville in the USOC midweek, while Charlotte needed extra time to advance past Carolina Core—setting up a home derby against North Carolina FC in the third round. Charlotte has won four of the last five meetings against Greenville, but has only won once in Greenville.
While I spoke of being put-off from how Greenville looked against Spokane last week in the latest USL Show, and the performance versus Knoxville did not quell my nerves, I think this match goes the way of who is hosting like most USL1 fixtures seem to go. Greenville to win is my pick, but perhaps consider Charlotte double chance.
Bet: Greenville to win
Texoma v Naples
3.40 - 3.30 - 1.95
Naples continues to impress to open the season, still unbeaten in club history. They advanced in the USOC midweek with a 3-0 decisive victory over Little Rock Rangers. Texoma this week have their fourth consecutive home match to open the year, but have just three defeats to show for their efforts. This Texoma team just does not strike me as a side with everything figured out at the moment, even if there are some moments of brilliance, such as leading Westchester for 27’ last week. I think Naples keeps Texoma scoreless, but their most recent match being 0-0 v Portland, concerns me for Naples’ own scoring at times.
Bet: Naples win or tie, Naples to score first (1.70)
Spokane v Portland
1.80 - 3.60 - 3.60
Portland with their longest road trip of the season, with a trip to the remote Pacific Northwest to face Spokane. Spokane could feel unlucky to exit the USOC midweek against MLSNP’s Tacoma Defiance, but it was Portland Hearts of Pine with one of the stories of the round as they took down Hartford on penalties in front of a wonderful crowd in Maine. It truly felt like a moment for Hearts of Pine to announce themselves as a newcomer to watch in New England.
However, I am still fairly confident on this Spokane team this year, and we have seen in the past that long road trips are challenging in USL1, particularly for expansion sides. Portland will wait once more for their first USL1 league victory as I have Spokane winning by multiple goals.
Bet: Spokane to cover -0.5 spread (1.85)
AV Alta v Westchester
3.60 - 3.60 - 1.80
A pair of sides who kept their USOC dream alive with an advancement to the third round midweek. AV Alta have a sold out crowd on hand for their first USL1 league match at home, after they had 2-1 victory over LAFC 2 midweek in front of a great crowd as well. Westchester have looked strong to start the season, another club yet to take a defeat in their club’s existence. However, like I mentioned above with Portland, the travel in USL1 is another beast entirely, and in front of a capacity crowd for AV Alta, it might prove to frustrate Westchester, even if I do favor Westchester to get a result. Picking a draw in this one.
Bet: Draw (3.60)
Parlays
ML parlay:
Tormenta and Naples ML: 3.90
Loudoun, Louisville, San Antonio ML: 6.32
BTTS parlay:
Charleston v Tampa Bay, Indy Eleven v North Carolina, El Paso v Lexington (4.81)
Sacramento v Louisville, Las Vegas v Orange County, San Antonio v Phoenix (5.60)
Underdog parlay:
Monterey Bay or tie, AV Alta win (6.60)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
Premier League:
Crystal Palace v Brighton BTTS (1.66)
Arsenal, Liverpool ML parlay (3.51)
Manchester United v Manchester City: BTTS, Manchester United win or tie (2.40)
Newcastle -1.5 spread v Leicester (2.30)
Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton: Southampton win or tie (3.00)
MLS:
Charlotte v Nashville: Charlotte win or tie, Over 1.5 goals (1.57)
Columbus ML, NYRB v Chicago BTTS parlay (2.55)
St Louis City SC win or tie v Sporting Kansas City, Over 1.5 goals (2.10)
San Diego FC ML v Seattle (2.25)
Other Sports:
NCAA Men’s Final Four games:
Duke/Florida Final Four ML Parlay (2.25)
Formula 1 - Japanese Grand Prix
McLaren both cars to finish podium: 1.44
Most likely, Lando Norris wins (2.25)
Verstappen podium finish (1.72)
Lawson points finish (1.72)
Doohan not to be classified (3.75) / Doohan first driver to retire (11.00)
NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington - Goodyear 400
Ford Winning Manufacturer (3.50)
William Byron top five finish (2.25)
Brad Keselowski top ten finish (2.40)
Chase Briscoe top ten finish (1.66)
Christopher Bell to beat Bubba Wallace (1.76)
Austin Cindric to win a group of himself, Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson and Carson Hocevar (3.60)
Final Thoughts
Wanted to plug, the USL’s “The Rondo”, it is one of the best ways to keep up with the league news each week! USL Plots on Bluesky has been doing “Watchability Rankings” of each of the USL games of the weekend which have been interesting to follow as well. And James Nalton’s piece on the Chattanooga Derby for the US Open Cup, was quite fascinating as well.
With the first three months of 2025 complete, I have run 120 miles already on the year, which should track for more miles than I completed in all of 2024. Warmer weather lately has been much better for runs each day and a continued addition to my miles tally!
As always, recommending Daredevil: Born Again and Righteous Gemstones each week as of late! Thank you for reading!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.