USL Odds, May 23
Any major match happen on Wednesday this past midweek?
Last weekend was a great weekend for our wagers. With a three day weekend ahead featuring the USL, the final day of many European football leagues, and the greatest single day in motorsports, we have more than enough options at our disposal for sports across the weekend. Let’s enjoy the long weekend and have some fun bets!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, May 23rd.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: North Carolina win or tie, BTTS (2.05), El Paso win or tie, BTTS (2.20), Charleston to win (1.55)/Charleston v San Antonio over 2.5 goals (1.75)/Parlay those two (2.37), Miami v Loudoun BTTS/Over 2.5 total goals (2.20), New Mexico win or tie, under 3.5 goals (1.95), Sacramento win to nil (2.50), Tulsa win or tie, under 3.5 goals (1.95)
USL1: Charlotte v Knoxville over 2.5 goals, Westchester v Madison Draw (3.25), Westchester to score first (2.30)
Parlays: North Carolina/El Paso ML (3.71)
Beyond USL: Everton ML and Over 1.5 total goals (1.66), Jamie Vardy to score in his final Leicester match at home (2.05), Hearts to beat Kilmarnock (2.62), Annan Athletic v East Fife BTTS (1.61), Charlotte v Chicago BTTS, over 2.5 goals (1.80), FC Cincinnati win or tie, BTTS v Columbus (3.75), Minnesota ML v St Louis City SC and Over 2.5 goals (2.25), Denver Nuggets at OKC Thunder Game 7, Over 213 points (1.90), Rays at Marlins over 8 runs (1.83), Detroit at Toronto: No run in first inning (1.86), LA Angels at LA Dodgers: Run in first inning (1.76), Piastri and Norris both finish podium (1.40), Hadjar points finish (2.00), Joey Logano to beat Chase Elliott h2h (1.83), Alex Bowman to beat Chase Briscoe h2h (1.90), Christopher Bell top three finish (2.75)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Detroit v Charleston
2.80 - 3.10 - 2.40
We get this weekend started with my pick for the game to watch of the matchday. Winners of six consecutive leagues games, Charleston Battery, are making the trip to Keyworth to face another in-form team in Detroit, who are unbeaten in their last six games in the league themselves. While always very good, the Battery have quietly climbed atop my Elo ratings—and the Eastern Conference table—overtaking Loudoun and Louisville in recent weeks. What fascinates me in this matchup is that historically, Detroit has had the Battery’s number, as DCFC have only lost to the South Carolina club, once all-time (August 2023, also the only goal Charleston has scored at Keyworth as well).
In spite of that history, Charleston are riding the hot streak of six wins in a row at the moment, and I think the better play is on them to make it seven wins from seven this week.
Bet: Charleston to win (2.40)
Rhode Island v Pittsburgh
1.72 - 3.70 - 4.33
I really think having returned to home matches on the schedule has helped bolster Rhode Island, as since their new stadium has opened, the club have yet to lose a match against USL opposition. Having just wrapped up a successful two match road trip to the South, with wins over Birmingham and Tampa Bay in the space of four days, RIFC returns home looking to get a first ever win over the Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
In the midweek, it was the end of the journey for the Riverhounds in the US Open Cup, as they fell to in-state opposition, Philadelphia Union, 4-1, in the Round of 16. Though it was a tough match to take, allowing the Riverhounds to refocus on the league and the Jagermeister Cup perhaps can get Pittsburgh back on track as they have yet to beat USL opposition in a league match since March 29th against Birmingham. Rhode Island has still yet to score a goal against Pittsburgh all-time, but I think they will tomorrow, getting first on the scoresheet and holding on the first result as the Riverhounds make it seven in a row without a win against USL clubs.
Bet: Rhode Island win or tie, Rhode Island to score first (1.57)
Lexington v Tampa Bay
2.55 - 3.30 - 2.50
A battle between the two lowest rated teams as per my Elo ratings, taking place in Kentucky this Saturday. A match between two sides who have not won since March, and as of late, have been having the opposite problems in their matches. Tampa Bay, saw their scoring streak—in spite of the winless run—reach a conclusion with a 3-0 loss to Rhode Island at home. Meanwhile Lexington has still only managed just two goals scored since April, having been outscored 12-2 against USL opposition in that time.
With the start to each season not going as planned for either side, a win in this match would be a confidence boosting win for the victor, and leave the loser in further free fall. While those circumstances may indicate a draw is the most probable outcome, the scoring output from Tampa Bay has me with more faith in the visitors in this match to find the back of the net. But I offer two options of wagers for the weekend, in essence fading the Lexington offense once more.
Bet: Tampa Bay win or tie, Under 3.5 goals (2.00)
Bet 2: Draw, 0-0 scoreline (12.00)
Miami v Birmingham
2.75 - 3.40 - 2.30
Across all competitions, The Miami FC are now unbeaten in their last four games, something the club has not done since October 2023. If they can make it five in a row unbeaten this weekend, it’ll be the first time since May 2023—or just before Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023) was hitting theaters—of going unbeaten in five consecutive games. The Mark Briggs era for the Birmingham Legion has been off to a mixed bag start, rather than a true new manager bounce. Still looking for their first win in the league since appointing Briggs, Birmingham have a pair of a draws and a red card impacted defeat in that time.
This series has seen the last four games be an even split of two wins apiece for each side, and if Birmingham are going to find their second win in the league this year, this feels like a great opportunity for it. However, this Miami team this season just feels different, and their last four games all being BTTS (with three going over 2.5 goals), seems like they will put up a fight against any team they play. I lean Birmingham to walk away with something from this match, but betting goals is going to be the safer play.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.05)
Orange County v Colorado Springs
2.55 - 3.20 - 2.55
The reigning league champions were able to pick up a much needed win over Pittsburgh last week, and their first win at home in the league as well, 1-0. The side who has seen ten matches this year go BTTS, Colorado Springs have gone back-to-back games with a clean sheet for the first time since the final two matches of last year’s playoff run. Orange County enter this match looking at just two wins since April in all competitions, as well as riding a goal drought of 190 minutes—or 21 minutes longer than Mission: Impossible Final Reckoning (2025)’s runtime.
This series however has gone the way of the home team in recent meetings, with just one win for the road team in the last eight meetings (by Colorado Springs in September 2023). Across 20 total meetings, this is a dead even series at nine wins each and two draws. This match might truly be a coin toss to try and predict on the weekend, but let’s buck the historical form and back the visitors to get something from the match.
Bet 1: Colorado Springs win or tie, BTTS (2.30)
Bet 2: Colorado Springs to score first (1.95)
Monterey Bay v Louisville
5.00 - 3.60 - 1.65
A rather underrated matchup this weekend, mostly bolstered by Louisville’s being the last unbeaten team standing in the league this year. Meanwhile Monterey Bay have somewhat cooled off from their hot start to the season. While still among the upper echelon of teams in the West, no wins since April 12th and scoring just twice in that time has been a cause for concern. In fact, the last five games of this winless run by Monterey Bay have been under 2.5 goals.
Louisville are off the back of consecutive draws in the league for the first time since May 2024, nearly a year to the day. You have to go back to the end of the 2023 season to find the last time Louisville went three consecutive games in the league without a win. Monterey Bay seem to be coming back down to Earth in recent weeks, and I still believe in this Louisville to find a way to get results, but this might be a low-scoring affair.
Bet: Louisville to win, under 3.5 goals (2.40)
Oakland v New Mexico
3.00 - 3.40 - 2.20
If there was ever a result that helped quell any questions on New Mexico’s ability to be a top team, it felt like getting their largest win away from home in the league since August 2020 (at the OKC Energy 3-0), was certainly the statement result to do it in. Now with a trip to Oakland to face a Roots team having lost three of their last four games across all competitions, I see no reason to stop backing New Mexico here.
Oakland have been scoring plenty of goals this year (they’re outscoring New Mexico by one in the league right now), but it’s been their league leading 19 goals allowed that has given much cause for concern for Oakland. Should be a fun one to watch on Saturday, but I am liking New Mexico to win this one, add on BTTS if you are daring to make it 4.75 odds.
Bet: New Mexico to win (2.20)
Las Vegas v El Paso
2.80 - 3.20 - 2.35
Impressively in the nine all-time meetings between these two teams, there has yet to be a draw, and on seven of those matches, the winner was a “win to nil” result. El Paso Locomotive have been slowly picking up their form in recent weeks, having not lost to USL opposition since April 13th, with four of those six games since then being BTTS. With a win here and other results going their way, El Paso could find themselves in first place of the Western Conference for the first time since 2021.
Las Vegas meanwhile are off the back of an uncharacteristically huge deficit defeat, having fell 5-0 to Sacramento last week, the club’s worst ever loss since April 27, 2024 (a 6-0 defeat to Charleston away). To me, it’s felt like Las Vegas under Nocerino has been prone to a high-scoring defeat this year, as all three of their losses in the league season has seen them concede three goals or more. Their -6 goal differential is near identical to their current xGD as per American Soccer Analysis (-6.72, or the second worst in the league). To be fair, a bulk of their goals conceded have come from their blowout losses to Sacramento and Tulsa. If I had to sum up this watching this Las Vegas team, it would be this quote from Knives Out (2019):
Anyways, I am backing the current in-form, El Paso Locomotive, to get a result from this match, but for the goals to not be as frequent as El Paso’s last three trips to Las Vegas did not see them score over one goal in the game (same can be said about Las Vegas in those three matches as well).
Bet: El Paso win or tie, Under 2.5 goals (2.30)
USL1
Madison v Portland
2.25 - 3.30 - 2.90
Well done to Portland Hearts of Pine for picking up their first win at home in the league as a club last week, as they saw off an FC Naples team reduced to nine players by the end of their 2-1 win last week. Madison, who also were in the Northeast last week, battled back from Juan Obregon’s long range goal, to rescue a point to take back to Wisconsin. However, this is a Madison team still looking for their first win since March 29th. It’s been a tough April and May but weirdly, it’s featured five consecutive draws in the league.
Surely the dam has to break at some point, right? Six draws in a row would be reaching unprecedented levels for USL1. I think Madison finally get their first win since March tomorrow, but to bet another draw at 3.30 odds is very tempting.
Bet: Madison to win (2.25)
Knoxville v Indy Eleven, Jagermeister Cup match
3.20 - 3.20 - 2.05
A lone Jagermeister Cup match this Memorial Day weekend, as we have more action from Group 3, as Indy Eleven make the trip to One Knoxville. Both sides were able to pick up positive results in their first group stage games, Indy Eleven winning 4-0 over Madison to take the group lead, while Knoxville won on penalties against Tulsa, showing they are not a side to be taken lightly by USLC opposition.
John Morrissey wrote about it in his latest “The Back Four” article on how Indy Eleven feels like they have stalled while the rest of the league has gotten better around them—shown by Indy Eleven still looking for their first win in the league since March 15th. Does this provide an edge for Knoxville to come in and get a major cupset in the group stage? I think back to Indy Eleven’s 4-0 demolition of Madison in the first game of the group stage and want to believe that team can recapture some of that high-scoring form in this match, but I do expect Knoxville to frustrate Indy Eleven here.
Bet 1: Indy Eleven win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.20)
Bet 2: Knoxville to score first (2.37)
Tormenta v Chattanooga
1.85 - 3.50 - 3.60
Much to my own surprise, Chattanooga has just one defeat in USL1 play this year, something that has almost flown under the radar for me personally. With a win this weekend, the Red Wolves might have an argument to be mad about being considered among the better sides of US1 at the moment. Looking at it on the other side, Tormenta have been reliable for one bet this year and that is goals. Nine of their games across all competitions this season have been over 2.5 goals, and with a chaotic Chattanooga team coming down, picking over on goals seems like the route to take.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.95)
AV Alta v Charlotte
2.15 - 3.25 - 3.10
This seems to be a running theme for numerous USL1 clubs at the moment, as AV Alta are similarly looking to end a winless run that has lasted since April 12th, but facing the Charlotte Independence, winners of their last five games across all competitions might not be the fixture they wanted to see. In each of those five victories, Charlotte have hit over 2.5 goals, making them one of the more exciting teams to watch in USL1 as of late. Three of those five victories saw Charlotte scoring the opening goal as well.
The Independence have not won six consecutive matches since October 2021, when they were still a USL Championship club (and still scoring goals for fun in those days). I am back Charlotte to get that sixth straight win this week and doing so scoring the opening goal as well.
Bet: Charlotte to win and score first goal (3.75)
Westchester v Richmond
No odds as of writing
Westchester has been an interesting team to follow in recent weeks, especially having since opened the doors on the home slate of matches this season with two games of BTTS. The New York side are still looking for their first win since March, but welcome another team looking to end a similar winless run, as Richmond have not won a game since April 9th. To take it a step further, the Kickers have not won a road match since March 7th (opening day of the season). With both of these teams scoring and conceding goals for fun, this feels like a perfect match to pick as another over 2.5 goals fixture—especially considering their eight goal thriller back in April a few weeks ago. I think the more straightforward option will be just backing Richmond to pick up a result in this one, but adding on the over on goals might give you better odds.
Bet: Richmond win or tie
Texoma v Greenville
No odds as of writing
Texoma has finally got a win, and they did so in impressive style against the defending USL1 champions, Union Omaha. In what has been a tough start to the season for the Texan club, it was Solomon Asante and Philip Spengler scoring twice for Texoma, before holding plenty of chances from Omaha to nab their first three points of the season in the league! Greenville meanwhile, who I had backed last week despite my continued hesitation on the Triumph this year, did not repay faith with a win, as they allowed an 86’ tying goal against AV Alta. This match is rather tough for me to call because on paper, Greenville should win it but perhaps the victory by Texoma last week has given the boost to get over the line once more. Going with Texoma to score first.
Bet: Texoma to score first
Naples v Omaha
No odds as of writing
Naples last two defeats are really tough to judge the them against at the moment. First you had the 11am kickoff on the water-soaked pitch in Chattanooga that saw them lose 3-1, following that you had an early red card in the match versus Portland and then a second red card to finish the match with nine players, that really hampered any chances at grabbing a result (and yet, they were 15’ away from doing so).
Omaha meanwhile has found themselves in unfamiliar territory, in the basement of USL1 at the moment. The reigning league champions have not won a league match since March (I’m sensing a trend among USL1 teams…), and coming off a defeat against Texoma—where maybe they got unlucky to not grab something from that game given they won the xG battle 2.81-0.92 as per American Soccer Analysis—is a tough result to swallow.
I think Naples get a bounce back performance this weekend having returned home, but Omaha does enough to cancel out any success the hosts might create in this match and this ends in a draw.
Bet: Draw
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Charleston, Louisville, New Mexico ML (8.71)
Madison, Charlotte ML (6.97)
BTTS Parlay:
Miami v Birmingham and Orange County v Colorado Springs BTTS (2.79)
Underdog Parlay:
Chattanooga or tie, Tampa Bay or tie (2.60)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 7.42
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
Premier League final day:
Arsenal win to nil (2.25)
Newcastle win, over 2.5 goals (1.75)
Liverpool v Crystal Palace: Liverpool win or tie, BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (1.86)
Tottenham v Brighton: Brighton win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (1.61)
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea: BTTS, Draw (4.50)
Fulham v Manchester City: Manchester City ML (1.60)
Wolves v Brentford: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (1.72)
English Promotion Finals:
Championship final: Sunderland to qualify, BTTS (4.50)
League One final: Charlton Athletic v Leyton Orient over 2.5 goals (2.30)
League Two final: Wimbledon v Walsall, Wimbledon to qualify (1.80)
Scottish Cup Final:
Celtic winning in 90’, over 2.5 goals (1.80)
MLS:
Philadelphia v Inter Miami: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (1.83)
Parlay: San Diego win or tie, Minnesota win or tie, LAFC win or tie (1.90)
FC Cincinnati win or tie v Atlanta, Over 1.5 goals (3.00)
Vancouver to score first v Real Salt Lake (2.05)
Other Sports:
Friday MLB:
Cubs at Reds: Cubs ML and over 8.5 total runs (3.56)
Yankees at Rockies: Yankees -1.5 spread, over 11.5 runs (2.87)
Padres at Braves: Braves ML (1.55)
Dodgers at Mets: Over 8.5 runs (1.83)
NBA/NHL Playoffs:
Pacers at Knicks game two: Knicks ML (1.40)
Thunder at Timberwolves game three: Thunder -2.5 spread (1.86)
Hurricanes at Panthers: Panthers ML (1.66)
Formula 1, Monaco Grand Prix
This race is pretty much determined based on the qualifying order set on Saturday. It might be more fun to wager on how qualifying will end up versus the race on Sunday. But I have provided options below for both.
Qualifying
Leclerc, Piastri, Norris and Hamilton all qualifying top six (2.00)
McLaren to have fastest car in qualifying (1.95)
Bortoleto to reach Q2 (1.83)
Grand Prix
Ferrari to have fastest pit stop (1.61)
McLaren both cars podium finish (2.00)
Winning car: McLaren (1.95)
Leclerc, Piastri and Norris all to finish podium (3.20)
Williams both cars points finish (2.25)
IndyCar, Indy 500
Chevrolet winning manufacturer (1.76)
O’Ward podium finish (2.50)
NASCAR, Coca-Cola 600
Chevrolet winning manufacturer (2.30)
Hendrick winning team (3.00)
William Byron top five finish (2.50)
Bowman top ten finish (2.20)
Chase Elliott to beat Ty Gibbs (1.71)
Byron to beat Reddick (1.90)
Kyle Larson does the double (wins Indy 500 and Coca-Cola 600)*: 119.00
*Note: this is incredibly, extremely, unlikely that Larson wins both races on the day, but I was curious of the odds.
Final Thoughts
It’s Friday and I am still in shock that Tottenham Hotspur have won the Europa League. It still has not fully sunk in yet that we have won a trophy. I could not even bear to watch the final from Wednesday just given how nervous I was over the match—I actually went for a 5k run during the second half. After 17 years since our last trophy, 41 years since our last European trophy, what a moment for us to finally reach the summit and get that elusive trophy. After a decade plus of supporting this club, it feels like a massive weight off the shoulders of everyone in and supporting the club. Most of all, I am thrilled for our two long-time veterans at Spurs, captain Son Heung-Min and Ben Davies, to finally win a trophy with us after ten years at the club. What a moment, this win will carry me through the summer! Watching the parade today was still surreal.
Sunday is the greatest day in motosports ahead of us. Between the Monaco Grand Prix in the morning, the Indy 500 in the afternoon and Coca-Cola 600 at night, it’s a full day of racing and among the best single days in sports. After a full day of USL action the day prior, I highly encourage you to check out each of these three races, the entire day is lots of fun.
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.