USL Odds, May 16
A weekend to distract myself from the nerve-wracking Europa League final next Wednesday. Let's have some fun with the bets on the weekend!
We continue onward through the month of May with another weekend of USL matches ahead of us! With last week being more successful for our wagers beyond USL, after an unpredictable slate of results in the league, we are looking for a great opportunity to bounce back this weekend ahead. With Europe’s leagues reaching their conclusions, the Biggest League in the World is ready to take center stage.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, May 16th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Tampa Bay v Charleston BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (1.90), Tulsa v El Paso BTTS (1.83), Westchester v Charlotte over 2.5 goals (1.75), AV Alta win or tie
Parlay: Tampa Bay v Charleston, Tulsa v El Paso, Sacramento v Indy Eleven each BTTS (5.15)
Beyond USL: St Johnstone v Ross County BTTS (1.90), East Fife to win and over 1.5 goals in the match v Edinburgh City (1.90), Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals, Dortmund win or tie (2.50), Philadelphia v Columbus BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.00), Nashville v Charlotte BTTS (1.72), Winnipeg Jets ML vs Dallas Stars (1.74), San Diego Padres -1.5 at Colorado Rockies (1.86)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
North Carolina v Oakland
1.72 - 3.40 - 5.00
The first of four USL Championship matches on CBS Golazo Network this weekend, North Carolina faces a second consecutive game against a Western Conference opponent this season as Oakland makes the visit to Cary. The one previous meeting from last season resulted in a 5-0 dominating win for North Carolina, but I have to imagine it won’t be that one-sided this weekend. Oakland are coming off a shock 2-1 victory on the road against San Antonio last week and are looking to win back-to-back games for the first time since August 2024. North Carolina are hoping to get a third consecutive win in the league since their final days of USL1 play back in 2023.
When three of the four wins for NCFC this year have been clean sheets, it makes that a tempting prospect, especially when Oakland have been shutout in two of their five defeats on the season already. While I do believe North Carolina should get a result in this match, as Oakland have not beaten an Eastern Conference opponent on the road since July 2024 against Miami, there could be a goal in this game for the visitors.
Bet: North Carolina win or tie, BTTS (2.05)
El Paso v Indy Eleven
2.15 - 3.70 - 3.00
Don’t look now, but El Paso have climbed to the second best Elo rating in the Western Conference at this stage in the year. Wilmer Cabrera’s side enters this match with just one loss in their last six games in the league, and are the conference’s highest scoring side. This is a much improved team versus the one we saw this time last year. They welcome an Indy Eleven team who has seen a some success in the Cup competitions as of late—taking Philadelphia all the way to penalties before losing in the USOC and beating Madison 4-0 in the Jagermeister Cup—but have not won a USLC match since March 15th (against Miami). Every league game Indy Eleven has played in has been BTTS, versus seven of El Paso’s nine matches being BTTS.
I am backing the hot side Locomotive in this trend to get a result on the weekend, but for Indy Eleven to make it BTTS at minimum.
Bet: El Paso win or tie, BTTS (2.20)
Hartford v Louisville
5.75 - 4.00 - 1.55
If there ever was a bounce back fixture, facing Hartford might just be that opportunity for Louisville City. This is a Louisville side who were frustrated all last week against Pittsburgh and had to settle for a 0-0 result, as Louisville were shutout in back to back games across all competitions for the first time since July 2023. This is a series that Louisville has controlled pretty soundly. In fact, August 2024, on their ninth time of asking, was the first time Hartford were able to beat Louisville in a match (and only the second time they were able to score multiple goals against Louisville as well).
However, while the opponent may be ideal for Louisville looking to find their form once more, the venue most certainly is not ideal. On their five previous trips to Trinity Health Stadium, Louisville have scored multiple goals in a game here just twice. But with just one defeat all-time against Hartford, Louisville should do enough to get three points again, perhaps just not in scoreline with plenty of goals (well, maybe Hartford without many goals).
Bet: Louisville to win, Louisville Over 1.5 goals scored (1.90)
Bet 2: Hartford under 0.5 goals (2.20)
Charleston v San Antonio
1.55 - 4.50 - 5.00
Charleston in this match will be looking to get their first ever victory against San Antonio, on the fourth meeting between these two sides. It is currently five consecutive wins for Charleston in USLC play at the moment, and they can make it six wins in a row in the league for the first in over a year—as May 15, 2024 capped off their six match winning streak in the league last season. San Antonio on the other side have seemingly entered a rather cold period of form, having gone just one win in the league in their last five games played. April 2024 (against Hartford) was the last time San Antonio won a match away at an Eastern Conference club.
I think Charleston get their sixth consecutive win in the league with this match, and if you are so bold, add on over 2.5 goals (which has occurred in five of Charleston’s six wins on the year).
Bet: Charleston to win (1.55)
Bet 2: Over 2.5 goals (1.75)
Parlay both: 2.37
Miami v Loudoun
3.80 - 3.50 - 1.90
Coming off their idle weekend, it has been nearly two weeks since The Miami FC last took the field for a match, as they look to resume their good form where they have only lost once in their last six games across all competition. Loudoun last weekend, to make up for their poor showing against Las Vegas to open the month, put five goals past Lexington, taking another three points on the season (and the third time they’ve done so in come from behind fashion). Never count out Loudoun in games this year.
Admittedly, this matchup might have been sort of a “meme” in seasons’ past, but Loudoun have become a formidable team in the East this year and Miami not being in the cellar of the conference is certainly not something we would have expected preseason. And this series historically has been relatively even, Miami leading the series five wins, two draws and three defeats. In nine of the ten all-time matchups, there has been BTTS with each of those games going over 2.5 goals. The one match that did not meet that criteria was a 0-0 result from 2022. This one seems very likely to be our “lots of goals” match of the week.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 total goals (2.20)
Bet 2: Loudoun to score first (1.57)
Tampa Bay v Rhode Island
2.30 - 3.50 - 2.80
Over recent weeks, Rhode Island slowly started to find the form that made them Eastern Conference champions last season, having not lost any of their last four games against USL opposition. Facing another road match this season, Rhode Island have won four matches away from home across all competitions on the year (and won in the midweek away at Birmingham as well). Tampa Bay meanwhile has been a cause for concern on the season. Rock bottom of the Eastern Conference in unfamiliar territory, the Rowdies are still searching for their first win since March 22. Remarkably, in the seven games against USL opposition since that win, Tampa Bay has yet to be shutout (each game going BTTS and over 2.5 goals in six of them), which makes you think this side should be turning a corner soon, right?
This series last year saw dominant wins for the home team in their two games last year, each going over 2.5 goals on BTTS. I like another BTTS for this match, with more of the goals coming in the second half.
Bet: BTTS, Over 1.5 second half goals (2.15)
Colorado Springs v Pittsburgh
1.83 - 3.40 - 4.33
This sport has always been about riding momentum swings on the season it feels. Pittsburgh, going into their USOC match, were on the back of three consecutive defeats across all competitions for the first time since March 2024. But they get a stunning upset against NYCFC in the USOC, coupled with a goalless draw away at Louisville, and now Pittsburgh have their second instance this year with back-to-back clean sheets in games.
The reigning USLC champions however have to be wondering when they will get their match that might turnaround their season. Last week’s 0-0 draw away at Las Vegas did at least end their streak of every match they played having ended in BTTS (why did I pick a Las Vegas match to be BTTS last week lol). Pittsburgh have not beaten a Western Conference team away since April 2024, so this might be a tricky trip for the Riverhounds. While Pittsburgh have been involved in three games this year that have been BTTS, that might be where the better value currently resides for this match (2.10 odds currently). But this match has the makings of draw.
Bet: Draw (3.40)
Orange County v New Mexico
2.20 - 3.10 - 3.40
It will be a match for bounce back performance when these two sides meet this weekend. Orange County will making the trip back across the country for a home game against a team they have only beaten twice before across eight previous matches played. New Mexico are now off the back of not just two consecutive defeats—for the first time since since October 2024—but defeats against both of their neighboring rivals in El Paso and Phoenix which has to sting.
In a series that used to be controlled by New Mexico, Orange County have kept a clean sheet in each of the last two visits to Irvine for NMU. Still though, New Mexico quite desperately need to pick up a result in this match to prevent losing three consecutive games for the first time since August 2023, especially since NMU’s next three games are all away from home.
This fixture might be the toughest one to call on the weekend, but I believe under 3.5 goals with a double chance on New Mexico might be the safer move.
Bet: New Mexico win or tie, under 3.5 goals (1.95)
Phoenix v Monterey Bay
2.10 - 3.10 - 3.75
Phoenix needed that win last week, especially being able to pick up the result away at New Mexico (only their third time ever winning at Isotopes Park). It ended a run of six matches without a win across all competitions for Rising. Monterey Bay meanwhile had to work their way into a hard fought point as they made the long road trip to Rhode Island for just the third match at RIFC’s new stadium. What started out as a surprising opening month of the season, has now paved the way to just one win since April for Monterey Bay, having been shutout on three occasions in that time as well.
With Phoenix off the back of a massive win last week, and Monterey Bay slipping in recent weeks, this feels like the perfect time to back the hosts this week to build off their victory and take another step forward on the year. Yet, Monterey Bay have always been a bogey team for Phoenix, controlling the series five wins, four draws and two defeats in favor of the California club. Phoenix have not beaten Monterey Bay since June 2023, and not won against MBFC at home since March 2022—or when The Batman (2022) was #1 movie in theaters. I like BTTS in this match, but I still have more belief now in Phoenix than I do Monterey Bay at the moment.
Bet: Phoenix win or tie, BTTS (2.20)
Sacramento v Las Vegas
1.65 - 3.60 - 5.25
Amazingly, Las Vegas enters this match riding a three game unbeaten run against Sacramento, their longest streak of this series all-time. The Lights are unbeaten in their last four games across all competitions and have not conceded a goal in 223 minutes, or enough time to have a round trip flight to and from Las Vegas and Sacramento. In USLC play this year, Las Vegas’ two previous road trips have ended in 0-0 results. Sacramento meanwhile still has not lost a match at home since October 2024 (which was also the last time Republic have been shutout at home).
I think Las Vegas has improved in the scoring front as of late that I would avoid picking a third 0-0 scoreline for the Lights away from home (8.50odds), but perhaps this is worth a Republic win with a low scoring Lights output.
Bet: Sacramento win to nil (2.50)
Birmingham v Detroit
2.55 - 3.40 - 2.62
Historically, this series has been all about Detroit, as the Michigan club has won five of the seven all-time meetings. Birmingham have not beaten Detroit City in a match since June 2024, and are facing Detroit who have seven consecutive unbeaten matches against USL clubs entering this match. When looking at the recent history of this matchup, Detroit has scored all of their goals in the first half of the last five games played against Birmingham. DCFC have also scored in every visit they have made to Birmingham.
The red card received during their midweek loss to Rhode Island undoubtedly played a role in the outcome Mark Briggs’ side, but I am just not sure this match will be much better for the Legion as Detroit have been on great form entering this game.
Bet: Detroit win or tie, Detroit over 0.5 first half goals (2.50)
Lexington v Tulsa
2.15 - 3.10 - 3.50
While they were able to finally bring an end to their goalless drought last week, having their heaviest defeat since September 2024, was certainly another gut punch of a result for Lexington. The Kentucky club finds themselves rock bottom of the Western Conference, still searching for their second win in the league. After their first five games on the season were not BTTS, Tulsa’s seven games since have all been BTTS (with a mixed bag of results as Tulsa only won two of those games). In seven games this year, Tulsa have scored the opening goal, meanwhile Lexington have scored first on four instances. Only three matches this year involving Lexington have been BTTS, so to wager that for this match feels like a risk.
Bet: Tulsa win or tie, under 3.5 goals (1.95)
USL1
Charlotte v Knoxville
2.87 - 3.10 - 2.50
The two matches that open and close the weekend for USL1 play might be the best ones to watch this weekend. We’ll get to Spokane v Richmond shortly, but this match has the makings of a fun contest. Charlotte enter this match winners of their last four games across all competitions—each of those games going over 2.5 goals. Knoxville meanwhile are looking to break a run of three consecutive draws. Oddly, Knoxville has still yet to lose to Charlotte in their five all-time meetings (three draws and two wins for the Tennessee club).
What I do believe is crucial for this match is who scores the opening goal, which could lead to a probable parlay opportunity depending on your result. Only once this year, has Knoxville scored first and failed to win (against Colorado Springs in the USOC). If they get the opening goal, that might be enough to propel One Knoxville to victory, but I would not be so quick to count out Charlotte who have won matches on three separate occasions this year after conceding the opening goal. This match should have goals in it, and I believe Charlotte might have the edge to get their first ever win against Knoxville.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (2.00)
Westchester v Madison
2.87 - 3.25 - 2.30
A first ever meeting for these two clubs, who also have not won a match in USL1 play since March 29th. The loser of this match will certainly be asking a lot of questions from their season start while the winner could certainly use this result as a means of turning around their season. Westchester are in the midst of a six match homestand, while having their last five games played be over 2.5 goals scored, but four defeats in that time. Madison on the other hand have drawn four of their last five games, and seen each of those games be under 2.5 goals. One interesting trend I am seeing for Madison this year is on just one match against USL1 opposition, their derby victory over Richmond, as Madison scored the opening goal.
There could be an edge to betting Westchester to score first, something they have done three times this season, but when two clubs are both desperate for a win, a draw might be the only suitable outcome in the end.
Bet 1: Draw (3.25)
Bet 2: Westchester to score first (2.30)
Portland v Naples
2.80 - 3.25 - 2.35
Naples’ loss to Chattanooga during the midweek (at 11am no less) is not a result I am going to read too much into. On an absolute mess of a pitch at an odd time away from home, the result is just one to block off. I mean, look at the state of this play:
Portland meanwhile are still searching for their first win in 90’ as a club, though a late Nathaniel James goal last week to rescue a draw against Omaha, despite being outplayed by the hosts, is certainly a welcome result. It was the first time all season that Portland were able to score multiple goals against a USL club.
Given that stat, I still think Naples are the better side, but this match might not be one for the goal-scoring highlights.
Bet: Naples win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.00)
Greenville v AV Alta
1.75 - 3.60 - 3.75
A pair of clubs each in desperate need of a win. April was hardly the fruitful months for either team as Greenville could only amount one victory during the month, meanwhile AV Alta had three victories on the month, but no victories since April 12th. AV Alta admittedly played some tough competition in that run—Sacramento, Las Vegas and Dallas all in cup competitions—perhaps we should not read too much into the games but drawing Texoma, 0-0 at home, has hardly done themselves any favors.
Despite my earlier calls for the panic button for Greenville, I am actually willing to say they find a result in this one as the hosts. This match might push over 2.5 goals, but the more straightforward wager is for the Triumph to get a win (perhaps pair this result with others in a parlay).
Bet: Greenville to win (1.75)
Texoma v Omaha
4.75 - 3.50 - 1.61
The story surrounding every Texoma match until further notice will be when will they get their first win as a club? It’s been a challenging start to life in USL1 for Texoma, and I am just not sure Omaha, in spite of their own struggles to open the year, are the team that will lose this game. While it might be worth a small, small wager on the upset chances (4.75 odds that the hosts can win), I have to imagine Omaha will do enough to see out the win. Keep fading Texoma until they win is the strategy.
Bet: Omaha to win (1.61)
Spokane v Richmond
No odds as of writing
The winners of five consecutive games, Spokane has been the in-form team of the league up until now, and this match on Sunday features the two highest-scoring teams in USL1 league play up until now. Surely, that should make us likely to have another match featuring these clubs going over 2.5 goals? Historically, this series’ only previous games from last season, went over 2.5 goals in two of the three meetings, with Spokane winning on two occasions as well. With Spokane at home, I fancy them to walk away with the result in this one, especially with Richmond still searching for their first win since April 9th and first road victory since March 7th.
Bet: Spokane win or tie, over 2.5 goals
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Louisville, Charleston, Sacramento ML (3.96)
North Carolina, El Paso ML (3.71)
Greenville, Naples, Omaha (6.64)
BTTS Parlay:
El Paso v Indy Eleven, Miami v Loudoun, Tampa Bay v Rhode Island (4.65)
Charleston v San Antonio, Phoenix v Monterey Bay (3.36)
Underdog Parlay:
Rhode Island win or tie, Pittsburgh win or tie, Tulsa win or tie (4.80)
New Mexico, Detroit ML (8.92)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 21.70
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
FA Cup final: Manchester City to lift the trophy, BTTS (2.37)
Premier League
Everton ML and Over 1.5 total goals (1.66)
Leicester v Ipswich: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.00)
Jamie Vardy to score in his final Leicester match at home is 2.05 odds
Newcastle win or tie v Arsenal (1.80)
Scotland:
Hearts to beat Kilmarnock (2.62)
Annan Athletic v East Fife BTTS (1.61)
Italy:
Inter Milan and Napoli ML (2.42)
MLS:
Charlotte v Chicago BTTS, over 2.5 goals (1.80)
FC Cincinnati win or tie, BTTS v Columbus (3.75)
Montreal v Toronto, NYCFC v NYRB, Columbus v Cincinnati all BTTS (5.39)
San Diego ML, Portland v Seattle BTTS (2.50)
Minnesota ML v St Louis City SC, Over 2.5 goals (2.25)
NBA/NHL Playoffs:
Denver Nuggets at OKC Thunder Game 7, Over 213 points (1.90)
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers Game 6, Over 5.5 goals (1.86)
Friday MLB:
Cleveland, Philadelphia, Arizona ML parlay (3.18)
Rays at Marlins over 8 runs (1.83)
Detroit at Toronto: No run in first inning (1.86)
LA Angels at LA Dodgers: Run in first inning (1.76)
Formula 1 at Imola:
Piastri and Norris both finish podium (1.40)
Hadjar points finish (2.00)
Over 18.5 classified drivers (2.20)
Hulkenberg to beat Bortoleto in qualifying (1.57)
NASCAR All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro:
Joey Logano to beat Chase Elliott h2h (1.83)
Alex Bowman to beat Chase Briscoe h2h (1.90)
Ty Gibbs to win All-Star race open outright (2.60)
Christopher Bell top three finish in All-Star race (2.75)
Final Thoughts
Andor’s final three episode arc was phenomenal this week. What’s turned into my favorite Star Wars TV show, has reached a terrific conclusion. Seriously, if you have not yet checked out this show, go watch it. The final stories led in well to Rogue One and its made me want to rewatch that film, now with the added context of everything we have seen in Andor.
I have continued my watchthrough of the Mission: Impossible movies on my Letterboxd account and have gotten through the fourth movie of the series. Aside from the second film, which truly felt out of place in the franchise, I have really enjoy something from each of the movies I have seen so far. Halfway through the franchise. The music of each film is just great every time I hear it.
With this the Europa League final on Wednesday of next week, this is the last chance I have to talk about that match here. Please, Tottenham Hotspur, win that final. It’s been a season from hell and I just want it to be worth it for a trophy, and not a summer wondering what happened to this football club. Here’s hoping for the best come Wednesday. My heart is saying one thing, but my wager will be another. Anyways, COYS…
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.