USL Odds, March 21
International break? The biggest league in the world is still playing this weekend!
The first round of the US Open Cup was lots of fun midweek, a welcomed return for the most historic competition in the United States—though it would have been nice if my sportsbook of choice had offered odds on the matches, perhaps next round. Let’s continue this fun week of soccer with a full slate of USL matches for the weekend ahead!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet. I would still wager on the side of caution this week as we are early into the season, but trends are starting to emerge more solidly for clubs moving forward.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, March 21st.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Detroit win or tie and match over 1.5 goals (2.62), Indy Eleven -1.5 (2.35), El Paso win or tie and BTTS (2.60), New Mexico win or tie and New Mexico over 1.5 goals (2.87)
Beyond USL: Manchester United -1.5 v Leicester (3.10), two leg parlay of Wolves to win and Bournemouth v Brentford over 1.5 goals, Burnley win or tie v Swansea, under 2.5 goals (1.90), two leg parlay of Dundee United v Dundee BTTS and Hearts to win v Ross County, Charlotte FC win or tie v FC Cincinnati and BTTS (2.15), Miami win or tie v Atlanta with BTTS and over 2.5 goals, Brad Keselowski to beat Chase Briscoe (1.80)
USL Championship
Detroit v Birmingham
1.95 - 3.30 - 3.70
Detroit has put together a strong start, back to back wins to open the year for the third season in a row—remember they started the 2024 campaign with five consecutive wins. Birmingham can take in the pride in the performance from this past Sunday, where they frustrated Louisville at home in a 1-1 draw, picking up their first result against Louisville since August 2023. Historically in this series though, Detroit has dominated, winning five of the six all-time meetings (though the two clubs split their matches in 2024). Detroit has scored in each of these six matchups, with Birmingham having been shutout on three occasions (all 1-0 scorelines in favor of DCFC). All but one of these games historically have been under 3.5 goals, and when Detroit has beaten Birmingham, they have done so by just one goal on each occasion.
Bet 1: Detroit win or tie and under 3.5 goals (1.66)
Or, Bet 2: Birmingham +1 spread (1.425)
Louisville v Loudoun
1.50 - 3.80 - 6.25
Loudoun’s invincible season great start to the season continued with a road 2-1 victory v North Carolina last week and have won their first two games to open a season for the first time since 2022. Loudoun takes a trip to Louisville this looking to win three matches in a row for the first time since 2019, when they won four in a row.
Louisville meanwhile had to settle for a draw against Birmingham last week, the first time since 2021 that the Kentucky club did not start the season with two consecutive wins (weirdly, the second match of that season also was a 1-1 draw with Birmingham). Louisville historically has dominated this series v Loudoun, having won eight of the nine all-time meetings—Loudoun’s one win came back in 2019. It was back to back 1-0 wins for Louisville last season in the two matchups and I believe Louisville will get their season back on track with a win tomorrow, but don’t expect Loudoun to make things easy.
Bet: Louisville win, over 1.5 total goals (1.80)
Although at 2.50 odds on Loudoun win or tie, that’s worth a punt.
New Mexico v El Paso
1.75 - 3.70 - 4.20
These two teams have generated the second (NMU on 3.72) and third (El Paso on 3.14) highest xGF in USLC at the moment. However, their xGA are both in the bottom six at the moment. Last week, New Mexico and Dennis Sanchez got revenge over Las Vegas for their playoff exit from 2024 (and Sanchez getting a result over his former employer). El Paso meanwhile participated in an early nominee for the game of the season in a 4-4 tie with Phoenix. That scoreline taken into the context that the Locomotive threw away a 4-1 lead, with a Puskas nomination worthy tying goal from Mohamed Traore was scored from halfway. To top things off, El Paso saw two late sending offs as well.
Twelve of the 17 matches all-time between these clubs went BTTS, and ten of the games in this series saw over 2.5 goals. On their five previous trips to Isotopes Park, El Paso has walked away with at least a point on four occasions—however only one of those four results for Locomotive saw over 2.5 goals. If you are feeling bold, add El Paso win or tie onto this result, but to keep odds more safe, I am just going for goals in this game.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.25)
Lexington v Indy Eleven
2.90 - 3.25 - 2.30
Lexington with their first somewhat “local” fixture for the club since having moved to USLC, as they welcome their state neighbors to the north, Indy Eleven, to town. Indy finally kicked off their season last week with a routine 3-1 win over Miami, where they found themselves 3-0 up at halftime. Lexington meanwhile, were on the verge of picking up a second win on the season before a late Orange County equalizer meant they had to settle for a draw.
With both of these teams having opened the year scoring multiple goals in each of their games, I think we may be in for a similar match tomorrow. If I had to pick a result, I’d lean towards Indy Eleven, but this one should see over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
Bet: Indy Eleven to win or tie, BTTS, over 2.5 goals (3.40)
Miami v Tampa Bay
8.00 - 4.20 - 1.40
Tampa Bay has won six consecutive games against The Miami FC, scoring at least two goals in each of these meetings. Miami has to go back to April 2022 to find the last time they beat the Rowdies and July 2021 to find the last time they beat the Rowdies at home. Though Tampa Bay has had back to back shutouts for the first time since August of last year, I just cannot see them going a third match in a row without score—it’s a feat they have not achieved since August of 2018.
As per American Soccer Analysis, both of these teams right now has the lowest GD-xGD in the league at the moment. I have more faith in Tampa Bay walking away with a win in this one, avoiding a third match in a row without scoring.
Bet: Tampa Bay win, Tampa Bay score first, Over 2.5 goals (2.30)
Pittsburgh v Hartford
1.66 - 3.70 - 4.50
Antithetical to the matches you would expect under Bob Lilley, the last six Pittsburgh v Hartford games have all been over 1.5 goals—with a further four of those games being over 2.5 goals. However, it was Pittsburgh winning five of those matchups. The Riverhounds generated the lowest xG of any team last week in their 2-0 loss to San Antonio away, while Hartford sat idle for the week.
Despite its history in those six previous games, I am leaning more towards this match being under 2.5 goals and Pittsburgh to pick up a result, especially since Hartford have not won in Pittsburgh since September 2020.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, under 2.5 total goals (1.95)
Tulsa v North Carolina
2.60 - 3.50 - 2.40
To me, Tulsa’s start to the season has quietly flown under the radar. They, alongside San Antonio, are the only sides in the league who has played two matches and have yet to concede a goal. Tulsa had a stifling defense last week against Tampa Bay where they won 1-0, scoring on their lone shot on target of the match. North Carolina however, will be disappointed to see that their opening goal of their match last week, did not convert into three points as they conceded twice to lose to Loudoun, despite being nearly even on xG for the match.
Tulsa in this game will be after their third consecutive win in the league, a feat they had not achieved since they won five in a row back in June and July of 2023. Of note, North Carolina also opened last season with three matches without a win (two draws and a loss) and will hope to avoid that blemish in 2025. The odds for Tulsa to win are enticing enough, and adding for the match to have under 3.5 goals gets us into plus odds.
Bet: Tulsa to win, under 3.5 total goals (3.40)
Oakland v San Antonio
2.62 - 3.20 - 2.55
The showcase match for USL this weekend has to be the Oakland Roots opening the Oakland Coliseum in front of 20,000+ fans in their home opener against San Antonio. However, the Roots would have hoped to enter this match in better form, as they lost 3-2 away at Monterey Bay last week, having conceded all three goals in the second half. San Antonio meanwhile stifled Pittsburgh’s attack last week with an aforementioned, lowest xG allowed of any team from week two. San Antonio’s low xG of just 0.70 allowed through two games is an impressive start to the season that I believe will frustrate Oakland tomorrow.
I am picking San Antonio to spoil the party against the Roots in their opener in the Coliseum, which should have a tremendous atmosphere on hand for the match.
For what it’s worth, the baseball team who shall not be named did not win their first game in the Coliseum back in 1968, nor did the Raiders win their first game at the Coliseum in 1966.
Bet: San Antonio win or tie, Oakland under 1.5 goals (1.66)
Orange County v Monterey Bay
1.80 - 3.60 - 4.20
Orange County are the current joint-highest scoring teams in USL at the moment with six goals scored in their first two games to start the year unbeaten. Last week, Monterey Bay was able to deliver a home win to their fans for the first time since June 2024, 266 days between those results—or 3.02 revolutions around the Sun for the planet Mercury. Orange County possess the current highest xGF in the league at the moment (4.94), well ahead of second place, and the current highest GD-xGD.
This match should feature plenty of goals and one that should see OC get the win in the end.
Bet: Orange County win, over 2.5 total goals (3.00)
Phoenix v Rhode Island
2.25 - 3.40 - 3.00
Phoenix showed real fight to make the comeback from three goals down to draw level with El Paso this past weekend, especially with the aforementioned wondergoal from Mohamed Traore. I believe this is the sort of result that Phoenix should be encouraged by moving forward on the season, and they have no time to rest as they welcome the reigning Eastern Conference champions, Rhode Island this week. Rhode Island started their 2025 campaign with a defeat in a rematch of last season’s East final, also losing the xG battle to Charleston 0.75-1.92.
Phoenix won the lone meeting between these two clubs last season in April, 3-1. It is really tough to decide what to make of this game in predicting a result as on paper, both of these teams enter this match still on paper, with a few unknowns. For safety, I am just picking BTTS.
Bet: BTTS (1.72)
Sacramento v Colorado Springs
2.10 - 3.50 - 3.20
Sacramento sat idle last week as Colorado Springs lost in their home opener against Detroit. The reigning league champions will be wanting to avoid a repeat of the 2024 season start that saw the club go winless in their first six games (but it ended the year in a league title, so…). This series has been even all-time, seven wins apiece with two draws. One current trend of this series is that Republic have won four of their last five home games against Colorado Springs, however it was the Switchbacks who beat Republic last season in this exact fixture.
Here is a weird trend of this match, nine of the last ten meetings of these two teams saw a team “win to nil” with Sacramento having six of those nine results. That trend is fascinating enough for me to pick Sacramento with that outcome once more.
Bet: Sacramento win to nil (3.50)
USL1
Richmond v AV Alta
2.00 - 3.50 - 3.00
AV Alta’s opening match in USL1 play did not go to plan, as they found themselves trailing 2-0 to Tormenta within just the first 16’ of their club’s USL1 existence. Despite having the lion’s share of possession (68%), the side still managed to get out-shot by the hosts (losing the xG battle 1.62 to 0.45). John Morrissey spoke about it in latest “The Back Four” where Alta’s lack of organization in the midfield seemingly hinders their ability to play the style of football Brian Kleiban is wanting.
Richmond could say they were unlucky not to score last week against a hastily put together Charlotte Independence team (or the Independence heard my critiques and put out a result just to spite me). They could say they were extremely unfortunate to not advance in the Open Cup, falling to Virginia Dream in the first round in midweek.
In any case, I am still backing Richmond to win. Alta, off the back of an Open Cup home opener, having to fly back to the East coast for this match, coupled with the issues seen in their midfield, will struggle to find all three points.
Bet: Richmond to win, over 2.5 goals (3.00)
Spokane v Naples
2.25 - 3.50 - 2.60
In USL1’s longest fixture, expansion club Naples, off the back of their first ever win in club history, travels across country to Spokane. Spokane let slip a two goal lead against One Knoxville, conceding the tying goal in 90’, last week. While a tough result to take, Spokane looked strong for the opening 50’ of the match to take that two goal lead. While Naples has been intriguing to follow in their opening start to the season, an especially dominant xG performance over Madison last week, a club’s first trip across the country is a tall ask. I think we see some goals in this one, likely with Spokane scoring first, but perhaps not all three should be parlayed.
Bet 1: Spokane win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.70)
Bet 2: Spokane to score first (1.80)
Texoma v One Knox
6.25 - 4.10 - 1.40
Welcome to the league Texoma! However, they’ll want a better first home league match than their first ever match in club history earlier this week, that result in their early exit from the 2025 US Open Cup against Foro SC after extra time—in a game that featured two red cards. Knoxville has had now two competitive matches played on the season—a comeback draw against Spokane last week from 2-0 to rescue a point at 90’, and their own USOC match saw Knoxville advance past Appalachian FC. Texoma had signs to be encouraged from their first match—John Morrissey with another good thread on Bluesky—I think Knoxville having played the additional game and showing the fight they had last week to rescue the draw, should get the win in this game.
Bet: Knoxville to win (1.40)
Texoma win or tie is 2.60 odds and worth considering.
Parlays
Three leg ML parlay: Detroit, Tampa Bay, Orange County (4.91)
BTTS parlay: Louisville v Loudoun, New Mexico v El Paso, Lexington v Indy Eleven (5.37)
Under 3.5 goals each parlay: Detroit v Birmingham, Pittsburgh v Hartford, Tulsa v North Carolina (2.00)
USL1/Super League ML parlay: Richmond, One Knoxville, Fort Lauderdale (4.83)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
Mexico to win Nations League in 90’ and over 1.5 goals: 2.10
Wrexham to win v Stockport: 2.35
MLS:
FC Cincinnati v Atlanta BTTS and over 2.5 goals: 1.90
San Jose win or tie v Charlotte: 2.05
New York Red Bulls -1.5 spread v Toronto: 2.60
Nashville and Vancouver ML parlay: 2.84
Men’s College Basketball:
Arkansas +7 vs St John’s: 1.90
McNeese State ML vs Purdue: 3.00
Four leg ML: Purdue, Texas Tech, Auburn, Tennessee: 3.45
Futures bet - Tennessee to win Midwest regional: 4.75
Chinese Grand Prix:
Picks were made prior to qualifying
Sprint Race:
McLaren double podium finish: 1.83
Lewis Hamilton top two finish: 2.00
Over 19.5 classified drivers: 2.25
Grand Prix:
Lando Norris to win: 1.90
Lewis Hamilton podium finish: 2.10
Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami:
Picks were made prior to qualifying
Ryan Blaney top three finish (2.60)
Tyler Reddick top five finish (1.76)
Alex Bowman top ten finish (2.25)
Josh Berry to beat Ty Gibbs head to head (1.71)
Final Thoughts
So USL with promotion and relegation is coming soon. Credit to The Athletic’s Paul Tenorio for breaking the news on Tuesday night in the midst of all the US Open Cup frenzy. I cannot believe from when I started covering this league in 2014, to now seeing an official vote from the league’s ownership to adopt promotion and relegation. Just insane growth from the Biggest League in the World™! Nicholas Murray also had multiple great articles this week talking about the promotion/relegation vote.
I am already excited about the second round fixtures for the US Open Cup, here are the games that caught my eye: Charlotte Independence v Carolina Core, Monterey Bay v El Farolito, Portland Hearts of Pine v Hartford, and the match of the round, Chattanooga FC v Chattanooga Red Wolves. Don’t forget to watch Flatirons FC vs Union Omaha tonight to close out the first round.
My two current TV shows on watch have been the final season of The Righteous Gemstones (HBO), and Daredevil: Born Again (Disney+). Both shows are outstanding watches, the great double feature of comedy and Marvel drama. I look forward to the remaining episodes to both of these shows’ seasons carrying into April, when Star Wars’ Andor season two premieres (I have also been reading the book, Star Wars: The Mask of Fear/Reign of the Empire, in preparation for Andor season two, and have been enjoying the novel expanding the storylines of the show).
Thanks for reading!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.