USL Odds, March 14
USL is well and truly back.
The first weekend back for USL Championship and USL League One was an absolute incredible time, let’s make it another fun weekend ahead. A full slate of Championship games await, while USL1 sees the debut of a new team—AV Alta—and a few other clubs with their first match of the 2025 campaign.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet. The season is still quite early and for a handful of clubs, they might be playing their first match this weekend. Still, look at every match with a healthy level of caution before making a wager.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, March 14th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Lexington to score first and win (1.86), San Antonio to win and under 1.5 goals for Monterey Bay (1.95), El Paso win or tie and BTTS (2.50), Orange County to win (2.05), Sacramento win or tie and BTTS with over 2.5 goals (2.70)
USL1: Richmond win or tie, over 2.5 goals (3.40)
Beyond USL: Coventry win or tie and BTTS (2.10), Burnley win to nil (2.25), Wrexham to win (1.95), DC United and Cincinnati to win (3.14)
USL Championship
Colorado Springs v Detroit
1.80 - 3.50 -3.90
For the second year in a row, Colorado Springs has their home opener against Detroit City. However, this time around, Colorado Springs opens their stadium as league champions. The Switchbacks dropped points last week as they allowed El Paso a late equalizer on matchday one, while Detroit took care of business in a routine result against Miami.
Last season, it was Detroit who won 2-1 against Colorado Springs off an 89’ goal from Connor Rutz, the second in five consecutive defeats to open the season for the Switchbacks last season. Interestingly, in this series’ all-time three meetings, the road team has won each contest with each game being over 2.5 goals. Let’s see if history repeats itself again, and the visitors get a result in this one.
Bet: Detroit win or tie, over 1.5 goals (2.62)
Miami v Indy Eleven
5.50 - 4.33 - 1.48
Last week, I made the bold call to pick Miami to get an upset result at home against Detroit. Instead, the Florida club lost 0-2, generating the second lowest xG of any Eastern Conference club from matchday one as per American Soccer Analysis. I think that performance shows they still have a long way to go before they get back to being comfortable to wager on them. Meanwhile, Indy Eleven rested during matchday one and will be making their 2025 season debut this week against a club they outscored 7-1 last year. Indy Eleven have not lost a match away in Miami since August 2017, when both clubs were in the NASL. Until Miami can prove to me they are not the same club as last season, I feel more confident picking against them in games. I am backing Indy Eleven with a spread bet in this one.
Bet: Indy Eleven -1.5 (2.35)
North Carolina v Loudoun
1.90 - 3.60 - 3.50
That’s right everyone, the People’s Champion™, Loudoun United took home the shock result of the weekend as Ryan Martin’s side beat Birmingham 3-1 and for now, sit atop the Eastern Conference. North Carolina meanwhile, had a more dour affair, a 1-1 draw with Pittsburgh in their home opener (which felt reminiscent of last season’s home opener against Charleston) which likely was a fair outcome for the game. Loudoun’s domination of the xG against Birmingham as per American Soccer Analysis stuck out to me in their win last week, but it may be tough to repeat has they have yet to even register a goal in their two all-time trips to North Carolina FC.
I believe that may change for Loudoun this week, but I’d still back NCFC to get at least a point from this match.
Bet: North Carolina win or tie, Loudoun over 0.5 goals (2.25)
Charleston v Rhode Island
2.20 - 3.50 - 2.87
A rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference final. All three meetings from these clubs last year were BTTS, with just the final going over 2.5 goals as both regular season matchups ended 1-1. Rhode Island rested last week while Charleston suffered a 2-1 defeat at home against Louisville. I really like what Rhode Island have done this off-season, headlined by bringing in Maxi Rodriguez. Picking a result in this one will be challenging as Charleston could be considered unlucky to lose last week against Louisville, with the red card to Arturo Rodriguez last week undoubtedly playing a role in the match. Let’s just back this fixture to produce goals.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.00)
Birmingham v Louisville
4.20 - 3.90 - 1.65
In probably the most shocking scoreline from matchday one, Birmingham took a 3-1 defeat against Loudoun United at home, in a match where Loudoun doubled Birmingham’s xG as per American Soccer Analysis. With all the hype surrounding Birmingham’s front three, Preston, Damus and Trejo starting the match, it seemed to be well-reasoned as it was Preston’s goal putting Birmingham up 1-0 after 2’. But Loudoun hit back with an equalizer in the 5’, then took the lead by halftime and a third goal in the second half to confirm all three points. Birmingham now will be looking for a bounce back game this week, but this is not an opponent that has been easy for Legion historically.
Louisville last week picked up a 2-1 victory over fellow top of the East foes, Charleston, in a match that saw the Battery finish with ten players. Last season, Louisville outscored Birmingham by a combined 9-1, scoring four goals the last time Louisville visited Protective Stadium last season. On just two occasions, both trips to Birmingham, have the Legion held Louisville scoreless in a match. This match should be one for goals, as these teams had a combined 44 games last regular season that went over 2.5 goals. But I think it will be Louisville who get at least a draw in the end.
Bet: Louisville win or tie, BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.60)
Tulsa v Tampa Bay
3.60 - 3.50 - 1.85
In six all-time meetings, every game between Tulsa and Tampa Bay has been over 1.5 goals, with a further three of them being over 3.5 goals. Which is why it is funny to see both of these teams entering this match, each at the opposite ends of 1-0 scorelines from matchday one. It was Tulsa with a victory over Phoenix last week, while Tampa Bay’s four match road trip to open the season started with a defeat at Las Vegas.
In doing research on this game, I came across a weird streak that Tulsa are currently on, they have not lost their home opening match since 2018, back when they were the Tulsa Roughnecks. That is six consecutive games to open the season at home without a defeat, an even three wins and three draws in that streak. Given that historical context, I am willing to wager on Tulsa to continue this very odd streak they are on.
Bet: Tulsa to win or tie, BTTS (2.87)
San Antonio v Pittsburgh
2.55 - 3.10 - 2.55
These two clubs combined for 40 games (including the 0-0 result against each other) last year that saw the match end under 2.5 goals. The start to the 2025 season for both clubs also featured under 2.5 goals (with San Antonio’s being under 1.5 goals). this could be in for another defensive struggle. Last season, Pittsburgh would win just one of their first ten road games on the season, so their slow starts away from home are documented, San Antonio meanwhile began last season with a result in each of their first seven home games. Both of these trends from last season seem to be off to similar starts in 2025. Under 2.5 goals seem like a given, but I think Pittsburgh should get a result in this one.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or draw, under 2.5 goals (2.00)
El Paso v Phoenix
2.35 - 3.60 - 2.62
One of the predictions I had last week that hit was El Paso picking up a result against the reigning league champions, Colorado Springs (as well that game being BTTS). One prediction I had missed last week was Phoenix getting a win over Tulsa, as Rising lost their first game to Tulsa since 2017. An interesting stat historically from this series, El Paso are unbeaten in their last three home games against Phoenix, all three games being BTTS. El Paso last beat Phoenix in August 2022, meanwhile Phoenix last won a game in El Paso in April 2019.
I am willing to back Wilmer Cabrera’s squad again this week to pick up a result, but do think it comes with both teams finding the back of the net.
Bet: El Paso win or tie, BTTS (2.60)
Monterey Bay v Oakland
2.20 - 3.40 - 2.87
Both sides opened their 2025 campaigns with a defeat, although it was Oakland looking like the more put together of the two teams from last week as they at least managed to score twice, while Monterey Bay were shut out against San Antonio, failing to record a shot on target. With news that Oakland has sold over 15,000 tickets for their home opener at the Coliseum next week, they will want to head into their new home with some momentum. Given that Monterey Bay seem like they’ll have a long road of a rebuild for their squad ahead, I think Oakland, with the anticipation of next week’s home opener, get the win over their California rivals this week.
Bet: Oakland to win (2.87)
Las Vegas v New Mexico
2.50 - 3.30 - 2.45
This might be the marquee match of week two for the USLC. A rematch of one of last season’s West semifinals, which saw Las Vegas prevail, is now a feature fixture centered around one person, Dennis Sanchez. Sanchez, who managed the Lights to the West final last season, at New Mexico’s expense, has now joined New Mexico for the 2025 season. While NMU’s start to the year ended in a 2-1 defeat away at Sacramento, Antonio Nocerino, Sanchez’s replacement in Las Vegas, began the season with a 1-0 victory over Tampa Bay (in match where Las Vegas lost the xG battle by a margin of -1.38 but still earned all three points).
I’m favoring New Mexico and Dennis Sanchez to get a result this week, exacting a bit of revenge against his former club, scoring over 1.5 goals in the process.
Bet: New Mexico win or tie, New Mexico over 1.5 goals (2.87)
Orange County v Lexington
2.00 - 3.10 - 3.30
Lexington’s first big road trip as the eastern-most USLC club in Kentucky, makes their first venture to visit a fellow Western Conference opponent. Lexington looked all business last week, holding Hartford to the lowest xG as per American Soccer Analysis, of any club in matchday one. Orange County put on a four goal showcase against Oakland last week to start their season off flying high. Just six defeats at home for Orange County last season, and I think the travel is going to be something to monitor for Lexington this season with so many trips back and forth between Kentucky and further western cities.
Bet: Orange County to win, BTTS (4.50)
USL1
Charlotte v Richmond
1.66 - 3.30 - 5.00
Charlotte has been extremely quiet it feels this off-season, worryingly so. Alex Ashton confirmed on Bluesky on March 11th that more players were incoming, despite their current website still showing the 2024 roster and the 2025 squad, featuring just 13 players. That level of non-communication at best, or unpreparedness at worst, would have me extremely concerned to pick Charlotte in this one. Especially since Richmond are coming off a 4-2 win over Tormenta from last week in the first game of the season. The Kickers should score multiple goals in this one, and get the win in the end. Honestly, just betting Richmond to win at these odds, is enticing enough.
Bet: Richmond to win (5.00)
Naples v Madison
3.25 - 3.25 - 2.20
Despite their draw from last week, and needing their equalizer to come from a penalty against a Chattanooga side that generated just 0.21 xG from the match, I was encouraged by what I saw from Naples last week. Along with a great crowd they had on hand for the game, it felt like this Naples team still has plenty of room to grow. While Chattanooga may not have been the best opposition to truly test yourself in this league, Forward Madison has been one of the league’s top clubs both on and off the field, and feels like the perfect chance to see how the newcomers stack up against a long time established team of the league. Madison’s two signings that stand out to me this year is signing Nico Brown on loan from Lexington, and Jackson Dietrich from Northern Colorado. These two players should be among the top new arrivals to watch in this Madison team.
A result is going to be tricky to call, so let’s see how we go on a goals wager this week.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.70)
Tormenta v AV Alta
No odds as of writing
Welcome to USL1 AV Alta, excited to get another West Coast team into the league! AV Alta made waves this off-season with numerous player signings to their inaugural team, headlined by experienced USL players in Miguel Ibarra, Luca Mastrantonio, and Elijah Martin. They make the trip cross-country to Statesboro where Tormenta are coming off the back of a 2-4 defeat against Richmond. It was a high-scoring first half that saw five goals between the sides, but still not enough for the hosts to see out all three points in the end. 2023 was the last time that Tormenta lost back to back home matches in the league and will be looking to avoid that feat this week, especially against an expansion club.
Bet: Tormenta win or tie, over 2.5 goals
Spokane v Knoxville
No odds as of writing
This is my most anticipated USL1 match of the weekend, as both Spokane and Knoxville get to kick off their 2025 season in the Sunday night spot. Spokane made a shock run to the USL1 final last season, ending their expansion season as runner-ups. Despite just one loss in their final 13 games of the regular season from last year, Knoxville exited the playoffs in its opening round. Spokane’s off-season has been incredibly intriguing with two new signings, Mark Hernandez, formally of Northern Colorado Hailstorm, and USL journeyman, Neco Brett, joining Velocity this season. Knoxville are bringing back eight players from their club from last season, with interesting signings in Mark Doyle (RIFC), Babacar Diene (Pittsburgh) and Kimarni Smith (Spokane) joining the Tennessee club this season.
However, Spokane’s off-season moves has me very excited for this club this year that I am interested to see if it can all click right out of the gate.
Bet: Spokane to win
Parlays
BTTS parlay: Charleston v Rhode Island, El Paso v Phoenix, Las Vegas v New Mexico all BTTS
ML parlay: Indy Eleven, Oakland, Louisville all to win
USL1 parlay: Richmond to win, Naples v Madison over 2.5 goals
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
English League Cup Final: Liverpool to lift the trophy, BTTS (2.30)
English Premier League:
Manchester United -1.5 v Leicester (3.10)
Two leg parlay: Ipswich v Nottingham Forest BTTS, Manchester City to win
Two leg parlay: Wolves to win, Bournemouth v Brentford over 1.5 goals
Elsewhere in the UK:
Coventry v Sunderland BTTS (1.80)
Burnley win or tie v Swansea, under 2.5 goals (1.90)
Birmingham City to win, over 1.5 goals (2.10)
Wycombe v Wrexham BTTS (2.00)
Celtic win or tie v Rangers, BTTS (1.86)
Scottish Premiership parlay: Dundee United v Dundee BTTS, Hearts to win v Ross County
Bundesliga:
Parlay: Bayern Munich to win, RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund BTTS, Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen BTTS (3.21)
MLS:
Minnesota United to win v Sporting KC (2.70)
Charlotte FC win or tie v FC Cincinnati, BTTS (2.15)
Vancouver win or tie v Dallas, over 1.5 goals in the match (2.10)
Miami win or tie v Atlanta, BTTS, over 2.5 goals
Formula One Australian Grand Prix:
Note: all picks below are made before qualifying. Qualifying could of course change things.
If able, bet that there will be a red flag. The race is forecasted to have lots of rain and with a grid that has six rookies and Lance Stroll, there could be an incident that red flags the race.
McLaren double podium (2.75)
Lewis Hamilton podium (3.00)
Carlos Sainz to beat Alex Albon (1.44)
Isack Hadjar points finish (3.40) - worth a risk on a rookie to score points in his first race in a rather surprising RB car.
Finally, Carlos Sainz has looked fast in practice thus far, his odds to finish top six is 2.75
NASCAR Race at Las Vegas, Pennzoil 400
Kyle Busch to finish top ten (1.83)
Chevy winning manufacturer (2.15)
Brad Keselowski to beat Chase Briscoe (1.80)
Kyle Larson to finish top five (2.10)
This last pick is more of a punt so I probably would not do this one, but Christopher Bell has won three races in a row and his odds on making it four race wins in a row has been boosted to 5.00 on bet365. Perhaps worth a sprinkle.
Final Thoughts
I had spoken about it at the end of this week’s USL Show, but I am excited for the start of a new Formula One season, with this weekend’s Australian Grand Prix. Starting at 12:00am Eastern time, it is the perfect end to a night of USL action. With six rookies on the grid this year, drivers on new teams—most notably Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari—the season looks incredibly wide open for the first time in years. My support of Williams and VCARB will be very interesting as Carlos Sainz seems to be adjusting well to his new team, and I look forward to see how the partnership of Tsunoda and Hadjar do at VCARB.
March Madness’ NCAA tournament is just around the corner and my East Carolina Pirates have just had their best season in program history in over a decade (and our best conference season in over 50 years). Tonight, we take on #3 seed UAB in the AAC tournament quarterfinals. While this may be the end of the road for this Pirates team (as UAB are -5.5 favorites), I wanted to express my appreciation for how well this team has played this season, one of the best in recent memory for ECU. Here’s hoping for tonight and if not, hopefully the CBI or CIT share a tournament invite for the Pirates.
Out of the Park Baseball 26 released today, MLB: The Show 25 releases on Tuesday. Tough decision for me on which baseball video game to purchase this year.
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theuslshow.bsky.social.