We move into the summer. Many congratulations to the Tampa Bay Sun on their inaugural USL Super League title from this previous weekend! They defeated Floridian foes, Fort Lauderdale United 1-0 after extra time in the final—and its led to a rather fun announcement from this week of a new planned stadium for the club in Ybor Harbor and a boat parade as well! Back into the USLC and USL1, we roll on into the heart of the league fixtures as the clubs’ continue to face the challenges of a long season. We have plenty of matches this weekend with all positive odds being offered on ML wagers options. Best of luck to your wagers on the weekend ahead!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, June 20.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Hartford v Charleston BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.05), Tampa Bay win or tie, BTTS (1.86), Louisville to win, Over 1.5 total goals (1.90), Tulsa v Phoenix BTTS (1.72), Colorado Springs win, Oakland under 1.5 team goals (1.86)
USL1: Naples win or tie, Naples to score first (1.75), Texoma v Tormenta Over 2.5 goals (1.80), Westchester to score first, AV Alta win or tie, Portland win or tie, over 2.5 goals, Charlotte to win
Parlays: Charleston, Louisville, Colorado Springs ML each (4.66), Hartford v Charleston, Tampa Bay v Miami, Tulsa v Phoenix all BTTS (4.65),
Beyond USL: Philadelphia v Charlotte: Philadelphia win or tie, BTTS (1.86), St Louis City v LA Galaxy BTTS, Orlando win or tie (2.09), Tigers ML vs the Reds (1.76), Verstappen podium finish (1.61), Shane Van Gisbergen top five finish (1.50), Christopher Bell top Toyota driver (2.15), McDowell to beat Suarez h2h (2.20)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Lexington v Colorado Springs
2.20 - 3.10 - 3.10
I will be the first one to admit, I was wrong about their match last week. When Lexington was set to face Western Conference leaders New Mexico, I thought having New Mexico at plus odds was madness and they would clearly cruise. But I was wrong and want to extend my congratulations to Lexington in getting a much needed win, their first since March 8th in the league. It has actually seen them climb level on points with Oakland in the conference as well. Speaking of Oakland, that was the side who Colorado Springs beat in the previous week, 1-0, to make it unbeaten in four of their last five games played. In six of the previous seven games played for Colorado Springs, they have gone under 2.5 goals and got a result in that match.
But do you believe Lexington, a team who has scored in each of their four previous games played and have gone over 2.5 goals in their last three, are turning a corner, or was their victory over New Mexico merely a good result among a challenging season? I think much similar to a game you will see in the USL1 previews, the number of goals scored in this match will be dependent on the team you think will be the more likely of the two to get the result. I lean towards the hosts.
Bet: Lexington win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.50)
Hartford v Loudoun
3.00 - 3.90 - 2.10
Hartford, for a brief period to end the month of May, looked like they were getting things figured out. They went unbeaten in four consecutive games for the first time since September of last year, had draws against Detroit and Louisville, and chaotic high-scoring affairs against Indy Eleven and Westchester. But their start to June has seen back-to-back defeats against Carolina clubs, and after the loss to Charleston last week, it seems like the year after year struggles of Hartford Athletic are starting to wear on the fanbase. A bad result against a club who used to find themselves in the same spot in the table as Hartford in those years, but have since become the story of the season this year in their turnaround, might really sour the mood in Connecticut.
Loudoun United, the Eastern Conference story of the season in my book, picked up a massive 3-2 win over Detroit last week, to make it unbeaten in four of their last five games played, with those last five games having been BTTS and four of which were over 2.5 goals. One weird stat of note in those five games played, Loudoun has scored the opening goal in only one of those fixtures. This series started out dominantly for Hartford, but has since seen the pendulum swing back towards Loudoun in recent history. Loudoun have won their last four games against Hartford, including three consecutive win to nil results (July 2023 was the last time Hartford scored a goal against Loudoun). With Loudoun flying high this year and Hartford in a familiar spot in the table once more, I am backing the hosts in this game.
Bet: Loudoun to win, Over 1.5 total goals (2.50)
North Carolina v Louisville
2.87 - 3.50 - 2.15
How much further can Louisville continue their unbeaten run to open the league campaign? It’s 13 games in a row without a defeat to open the year as Louisville are already starting to create a healthy gap between themselves and everyone else in the Players’ Shield race. In 12 of their 13 games played in the league this year, Louisville has seen over 1.5 goals scored as one of the most reliable bet hits on the season (8 of those games have been BTTS). North Carolina meanwhile saw their four match winning streak end last week away at Rhode Island, 2-1.
This series historically has brought us some high-scoring fixtures as six of the eight meetings all-time have been BTTS and over 2.5 goals (with four of these games going over 3.5 goals). But it is a series dominated by Louisville, who have won six of these eight matches all-time. Back Louisville to continue their unbeaten run this week, but North Carolina to score at least once.
Bet: Louisville to win, BTTS (4.00)
Detroit v Miami
1.65 - 3.80 - 4.33
Amazingly, Miami is on two wins out of their three previous league games and will be looking to win back-to-back games in the league for the first time since April. For as many jokes as last season’s Miami team received, to their credit, they have no doubt figured things out this season and look drastically better. Detroit on the other hand have been going through a now very significant wobble in form. We spoke about it on this week’s USL Show, but it seems like many teams who start off the season strongly—like Detroit did with just one defeat in their first 10 games—end up having a period of difficulties in June. And those difficulties reached a notable point as they lost 2-3 to Loudoun last week. Over the course of their previous four games played, Detroit have been outscored by a combined 12-3.
All of that being said, facing Miami back at Keyworth after a three match road trip might be the perfect opportunity for DCFC to get back on track. Detroit have not allowed a goal versus Miami since September 2023, and have not lost to Miami since October 2022. In the history of this series, four of the seven meetings went under 2.5 goals, but with three of the previous four games for Detroit seeing high-scoring affairs, perhaps avoiding a total goals wager might be smart. I will say, in each of the home games for Detroit this season across all competitions, they have scored the opening goal and I have to imagine being back at home will give DCFC enough confidence to see out a result.
Bet: Detroit win or tie, Detroit to score the first goal (1.50)
Indy Eleven v Las Vegas
1.80 - 3.75 - 3.75
New manager bounce? Las Vegas parted ways with Antonio Nocerino last week and subsequently won first match without him, 2-0 over Monterey Bay. This week, the Lights make the trip East to face an Indy Eleven team unbeaten in their last four games and have recorded three shutouts in that time (and one weird 4-4 match against Hartford). In their previous six games played, Indy Eleven have scored first in five of those games and they have not lost a match in which they had scored first in since March 29th (2-3 defeat against Colorado Springs).
I think it’s worth it to wager on Indy Eleven to quell any thoughts of a new manager bounce for Las Vegas and get all three points while keeping a clean sheet.
Bet: Indy Eleven to win to nil (3.25)
Pittsburgh v Tampa Bay
1.90 - 3.40 - 3.60
The Rowdies made it twice the number of victories for teams from the Tampa Bay region, over teams from South Florida last weekend, as they picked up a 2-1 win over Miami, having now defeated them twice in the league this season. Pittsburgh meanwhile were shutout against a USL club for the seventh time this season last weekend against Indy Eleven, in a 0-1 defeat. This series has been exactly even in their previous 17 matches, six wins apiece and five draws, but Tampa Bay have not scored a goal at Highmark Stadium since June 25, 2022 from a 5-2 thriller of a game (1,091 days ago, or 12.39 orbits around the sun for Mercury).
Check out John Morrissey’s latest article talking about Lilley-ball as well!
Given that history, I am not sure if Tampa Bay’s current run of BTTS in each of their last four games played is going to get extended against Pittsburgh. But I am more inclined to pick this game to finish under 2.5 goals, which has happened in the previous eight games against USL opposition, involving Pittsburgh.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.80)
Rhode Island v Sacramento
2.37 - 3.60 - 2.55
Sacramento’s four game road trip continues with a trip up to New England to face Rhode Island FC, who earned their first ever victory in their new home stadium last week out against North Carolina. Republic meanwhile are coming off a midweek defeat against Birmingham, and their previous manager. Neill Collins’ Sacramento will be looking to avoid consecutive defeats in the league for the first time since October 2024. In the lone meeting of these two clubs last season, it was a 2-2 draw with a Jonathan Ricketts’ goal at 90+3’ to rescue a point for Sacramento.
One stat I am looking at is that RIFC have not had three consecutive games each go over 2.5 goals since the Eastern Conference playoffs at the end of last season, while Sacramento in the league this season, has seen 7 of their 12 games go under 2.5 goals as well. I favor the hosts in getting a point at minimum, with a draw being a very likely outcome, but I do believe under 2.5 goals is a safe wager. A few options of bets for your liking.
Bet 1: Under 2.5 goals (1.90)
Bet 2: Draw (3.60)
Charleston v Phoenix
1.61 - 4.00 - 4.33
In a massive midweek upset, particularly for the odds, Charleston took a shock defeat in South Beach, as they lost 0-1 to The Miami FC (it’s the Battery’s second 0-1 loss to a Floridian club this season as they lost 0-1 to FC Naples earlier this season). Though only three points out of first place, the longer Louisville’s unbeaten run continues, the more these dropped points for Charleston early is going to hurt later on in the season. But perhaps a rematch of the 2023 USL Cup final might turn around fortunes for Charleston—and get an opposite outcome of that final this weekend?
Phoenix however have been one of the in-form teams of the league as of late, with no defeats in their previous six games with two shutouts in that time. Rising have outscored opponents 12-6 in that time, sharing the scoring efforts as there have been nine different goalscorers across those six games. The trips across the country are always challenging, as Phoenix has not beaten an Eastern Conference opponent away from home since August 2024 (1-0 away at Loudoun), while the Battery’s lone home loss on the year has come against Louisville. Leaning towards Charleston to find their way back on track at home this weekend, but Phoenix will certainly make it challenging for the hosts.
Bet: Charleston win or tie, BTTS (1.95)
Birmingham v Oakland
2.00 - 3.60 - 3.20
In the midweek, Mark Briggs engineered a 1-0 victory for Birmingham Legion, over his former club, Sacramento. A Sebastian Tregarthen goal at 90+4’ confirmed Birmingham’s first shutout victory since October 26, 2024, which was a 5-0 result against tomorrow’s opponents, the Oakland Roots. It’s safe to say the Benny Feilhaber campaign has been off to a very rocky start, as Oakland are still looking for their first goal under Feilhaber, having lost 0-1 to Colorado Springs last week.
All-time, Mark Briggs is 5 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats against Oakland, a little over a year to the day the last time Briggs lost to Oakland—a 2-3 defeat for Republic on June 16, 2024. I still think fading Oakland is the move until there comes a match where Feilhaber and co. can prove me otherwise. I have Birmingham to make it back-to-back wins in the league for the first time since June 2024, and Oakland to still struggle to score.
Bet: Birmingham to win, Oakland under 1.5 goals (2.25)
Though Birmingham to win might be enough on its own.
New Mexico v San Antonio
2.00 - 3.60 - 3.10
It was a shocking result as I had mentioned above, but I have no reason to believe still that New Mexico’s defeat against Lexington (where they dominated possession), is indicative of any long term difficulties for the team this season. However, I do have the lingering thought that a defeat like that might cause a small “hangover” for NMU, as it reminds me of their loss to El Paso 3-0 in the league back in May, was followed up with a 1-2 loss to Phoenix the next week.
That being said, are San Antonio are the club to extend the hangover for New Mexico this week? Outside of their win against Las Vegas on June 7th, SAFC have not won any of their other previous six games played (though a pair of draws against Tulsa and Sacramento are noteworthy). but San Antonio have quietly moved into third in the West and if results go their way, could be sitting atop the conference with a win in this match.
A result in this match strikes me as rather tough to predict, so let’s keep it simple and back BTTS (something that has happened in four of the last five games of this series, and in New Mexico’s last three games played this season).
Bet: BTTS (1.66)
Monterey Bay v El Paso
2.70 - 3.50 - 2.30
El Paso has been in the midst of a mid-season wobble, as they have not scored in any of their previous three matches, 296’ or nearly five hours ago (or enough time to watch the first two and a half Mission: Impossible movies), and it was a 0-3 defeat against Orange County last week. It was El Paso’s heaviest defeat in a game since June 26, 2024. Monterey Bay meanwhile saw their three match winning streak meet a surprising end as they lost 2-0 on the road to new manager bouncing Las Vegas Lights.
When looking at this series, it has been an even three wins apiece and three draws in their previous nine meetings, but both teams enter this game wanting a victory to help their fortunes, as a win for either club would see them inside the top four of the conference after this weekend. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have been under 2.5 goals, but both sides have seen their fair share of multi-goal games recently. Let’s back this one to be our goals game of the week.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.00)
USL1
Greenville v Chattanooga
1.75 - 3.75 - 3.60
In spite of the Jagermeister Cup win over Charleston to end May, Greenville are still looking for their first win back in the league since April 5th. The Triumph had a two matches last week, suffering back-to-back 0-1 results in those games. Greenville currently have not scored a goal in 233’—or enough time to watch John Wick (2014) and John Wick 2 (2017) which I have done this month of June. Chattanooga have quietly been on an unbeaten run of six consecutive games entering this game, with each of their last five games being BTTS, four of which have gone over 2.5 goals. The Red Wolves are an extremely frustrating team to play against as we have spoken to on the USL Show, and have not lost in three of their last four meetings against Greenville.
With Naples having an idle week this weekend, Chattanooga could be third in the league with a win in this match. It does seem like I keep waiting on this Greenville team to have a match that should alleviate my worries, but it has not seemed to come each time of asking. Chattanooga should pick up a result in this one at minimum.
Bet: Chattanooga win or tie (1.90)
Knoxville v Tormenta
1.80 - 3.40 - 3.70
Knoxville last week suffered from an unfortunate rain delay that ultimately led to the postponement of their match against Richmond. Tormenta meanwhile while had a busy first half of their match v Texoma, 2-2 the scoreline was at halftime (and remained until the final whistle). With Knoxville inadvertently having a day off, its led to the club being more rested entering this match against Tormenta than their opponents—but both sides are bringing long winless runs into this fixture as Knoxville and Tormenta have not won any of their previous six and five games respectively. In four of those previous six games of this run, Knoxville has been involved in games that went under 2.5 goals, while Tormenta has seen three of their last five games go over 2.5 goals.
When looking historically, Knoxville have won the last three games played against Tormenta, all by scores of 1-0 strangely (in fact the last four matchups of this series have been by scores of 1-0). This feels like one of those games that the club you think get the result, will determine the over/under on goals scored. I am backing Knoxville to get the result, and keep things under 2.5 goals.
Bet: Knoxville win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.20)
Richmond v Spokane
3.30 - 3.40 - 1.95
Much like Knoxville above, Richmond did not play a full 90’ last week out, but the lack of a finished game means the club’s winless run since April 9th, continued at no victories in their last nine games played. USL1 leaders Spokane halted a three game winless run of their own to pick up three points against Madison last time out. Against USL opposition, when Spokane have scored, they have yet to lose a game this season, and it was a little over a month ago when these two teams last played each other, which saw the Washington club win 1-0 on May 18th (having played a player down for most of the match no less).
These two teams have scored the same number of goals in the league this season, but it is Spokane who have conceded 12 fewer goals in the identical number of games played. A wager to consider would be for this match to go over 2.5 goals, but I think the better odds lie with picking Spokane to outright win.
Bet: Spokane to win (1.95)
Texoma v Charlotte
3.70 - 3.60 - 1.80
Who can forget the last time these two teams played each other, it was a chaotic 4-3 win for Charlotte, a Luis Alvarez penalty at 90+5’ to clinch all three points, on May 3rd. But both of these teams are very different than they were since that fixture. Alvarez is now with Tampa Bay, and Texoma have not lost a match since that defeat against the Independence (three wins and two draws in that time). Three of those five matches for Texoma have been over 2.5 goals, while Charlotte had previously had a run of seven games in a row going over 2.5 goals, has seen their last three games played going under 2.5 goals.
Charlotte are still the better team in my eyes, as Texoma still has quite a ways to continue to climb moving forward (they still have a -8 goal differential in the league). But this unbeaten run they now find themselves on has done quite a bit to revive the image of Texoma as a competitive team this year in my eyes. I’d lean Charlotte to still get a result in this match, but a Texoma result would not shock me.
Bet: Charlotte win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (2.10)
AV Alta v Portland
2.10 - 3.40 - 2.87
It’s taken a while to get going it has felt, but Portland Hearts of Pine have gone through a brilliant month of May and start to June. Unbeaten in six of their last seven games played, having scored in each of those games (five of their last six games have gone over 2.5 goals). While still outside the playoff spots at the moment, this Portland team are playing with lots of belief and confidence. However, Hearts of Pine are running into an AV Alta team who have an unbeaten in 90’ streak going for themselves, with no losses in 90’ versus USL opposition since April 30. After a massive comeback win to against, 5-2 (after starting with Westchester 2-0 up only to not win for the seventh game in a row…).
In nine of the 14 league and cup matches against USL opposition, AV Alta has seen their games go over 2.5 goals and with how free scoring Portland matches have been lately, I am inclined to think this match has a similar number of goals scored. One thing to note is that Portland are still looking for their first ever victory away from home as a club, so there could be great value in their odds to win this match.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.90)
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Loudoun, Louisville, Birmingham ML (9.24)
Charleston, Indy Eleven, Detroit ML (4.79)
Knoxville, Spokane, Charlotte ML (6.31)
BTTS, Goals Over/Under Parlay:
North Carolina v Louisville, Charleston v Phoenix, New Mexico v San Antonio all BTTS (4.65)
Lexington v Colorado Springs, Detroit v Miami, Pittsburgh v Tampa Bay all under 2.5 goals (7.56)
Knoxville v Tormenta under 2.5 goals, Texoma v Charlotte and AV Alta v Portland both over 2.5 goals (5.85)
Underdog Parlay:
Chattanooga or tie, Monterey Bay or tie (3.00)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 10.99
Might be our lowest odds on the very unlikely above parlay that I have seen this year.
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
MLS:
Cincinnati ML v Montreal (2.25)
Minnesota v Houston BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.20)
Charlotte win or tie v Sporting Kansas City, over 1.5 goals (1.72)
NY Red Bulls and Orlando both ML parlay (5.34)
Colorado v LA Galaxy and Columbus v Atlanta each BTTS (2.40)
Gold Cup:
Jamaica and Panama ML (2.16)
Canada, Saudi Arabia, USA ML (2.16)
Other Sports:
Friday MLB
Rangers -1.5 spread at Pirates (1.95)
Blue Jays -1.5 spread vs White Sox (2.05)
Reds at Cardinals over 9 runs (2.00)
Run in the first inning - no (1.86)
Giants ML vs Red Sox and Devers over 0.5 hits (2.35)
Twins, Padres ML (2.70)
Guardians at Athletics run in first inning - no (2.05)
College World Series
#13 Coastal Carolina vs #6 LSU
Of note, Coastal Carolina are on an astounding 27-game winning streak entering the championship round of the College World Series. Can the Chanticleers make it two national titles from two trips to Omaha all-time (their first title since 2016), or will LSU make it two national titles in the previous three seasons (and their 8th overall title)?
Game One Wagers:
Over 8.5 runs (1.90)
A run scored in the first inning - Yes (1.83)
Futures Wagers:
Over 2.5 games (1.86)
LSU wins the series 2-1 (3.25)
NBA Finals Game Seven
Our first game seven in the NBA Finals since 2016! Will the Seattle SuperSonics OKC Thunder close it out or will the Indiana Pacers pull off the improbable upset?
OKC Thunder is -7.5 (1.90) against Indiana. OKC are also 1.32 ML to Indiana’s 3.50.
OKC ML, Indiana covers +7.5 (4.75)
Chet Holmgren under 10.5 rebounds (1.68)
Jalen Williams (OKC) and Pascal Siakim (IND) both 20+ points (2.30)
NASCAR Cup Series - The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway
Quite often, races at Pocono turn into long-stretches of green flag racing with lots of pit stop and fuel strategy at play. The last four races averaged 8 cautions, with on average, 32 of the 160 total laps being run under caution. The last four races has seen each of the three manufacturers win at the circuit as well, with Toyota having the plurality with two wins (both from Joe Gibbs Racing). Chase Elliott is a very good driver at this circuit, having finished inside the top ten in the three previous races here (with one win), so he could be a trendy pick to win this weekend. Hendrick as a team in general is very good here as each of their drivers have decent average finishes here since 2022.
Chase Elliott top ten finish (1.66)
Christopher Bell top five finish (2.60)
Chase Elliott to beat Tyler Reddick h2h (2.25)
Bubba Wallace to beat Ross Chastain h2h (1.71)
Joey Logano to be top Ford driver (5.50)
NASCAR Xfinity Series - Explore Pocono Mountains 250 at Pocono Raceway:
Chase Elliott to win the Xfinity race on Saturday is 4.50 odds
Final Thoughts
I mentioned it during our closing thoughts of the USL Show this week, but the British comedy show, Taskmaster, has been in the midst of their 19th series lately. I am admittedly late to the scene on this show but it has been absolutely chaotic and very hilarious to watch (here is the link to their 7th episode of the series and full playlist). I have been binge-watching these episodes and seeing each task and the reactions of the comedians to their completion has been simply hilarious. Would definitely recommend a watch!
Thank you for reading!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.