USL Odds, June 13
A USL Super League champion will be crowned this weekend!
It’s a full slate of USL this weekend, as the highlight match has to be the first ever final for the USL Super League. After a long season, we have reached its pinnacle game of its inaugural season, a Florida derby final between Tampa Bay Sun and Fort Lauderdale United! On top of that match, we have plenty of USLC and USL1 matches on offer for wagers! Best of luck in your bets for the weekend!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, June 13
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Pittsburgh win or tie, under 2.5 goals (1.83), Louisville win, over 1.5 total goals (1.95), Louisville win, BTTS (3.60), Monterey Bay win or tie, Over 1.5 goals (1.80), El Paso win or tie (1.36), Phoenix v Orange County BTTS, over 3.5 goals (3.75),
USL1: Knoxville win or tie (1.44), Westchester to score first, Knoxville win or tie (5.00), Charlotte to win (2.75)
Parlays: Loudoun v Charleston, Phoenix v Orange County both BTTS (3.05), Charlotte ML and Naples win or tie (3.97)
Beyond USL: DC v Chicago BTTS and over 2.5 goals (1.95), Portland ML and match over 1.5 goals (1.90), Coastal Carolina at Auburn over 10.5 runs (1.83), Louisville and Oregon State ML (2.53), Mets -1.5 spread at Rockies (1.54), Florida to win game two (1.86), Over 2.5 Ford drivers in the top ten, Denny Hamlin top five finish (1.90), Kyle Larson to beat Tyler Reddick h2h (1.66), Ryan Preece to win Group F - Preece v Jones, Suarez, Dillon (2.50)
Elo Ratings
USL Super League Final
Tampa Bay Sun v Fort Lauderdale United
90’ outcome: 1.80 - 3.60 - 3.60
To lift trophy: 1.44 - 2.62
It all comes down to this! A Floridian Derby for the final for the inaugural USL Super League season! Tampa Bay Sun prevailed last week after a come from behind victory over Dallas Trinity, while Fort Lauderdale United defeated the #1 seed, Carolina Ascent in extra on a, controversially close to offsides, 120’ winning goals. This was a match that finished in a draw three times this season with Tampa Bay winning the fourth meeting (and most recent, from April 5th). The three draws were also each BTTS as well. Each team has split time in scoring the opening goal as well, twice each. With both sides unbeaten in their last five games entering this match, this should be an incredibly fun fixture to decide the league title.
All of this taken into account, I am backing the hosts to ultimately lift the trophy at the end of the match, and have been liking this game to be BTTS to complete the parlay.
Bet: Tampa Bay to win in 90’, BTTS (4.75)
Score prediction: Tampa Bay 2-1 Fort Lauderdale (9.50)
USL Championship
Loudoun v Detroit
2.00 - 3.25 - 3.50
Over recent weeks, Loudoun was able to end a long winless run against Louisville and pick up a result against Charleston, but this week, the Virginia team faces an opponent they have yet to defeat in a match, Detroit City. But it is a Detroit team with no wins in their last six matches played versus USL opposition. In those six games, Detroit has been outscored 6-13, but has picked up three draws away from home as well.
Loudoun’s form since the start of May has been baffling to say the least. They’ve had aforementioned results against Louisville and Charleston to boost their performances (alongside a 5-1 demolition of Lexington), but also have defeats against Miami and Las Vegas (who recently sacked their manager, more on that later). In their six all-time meetings, Loudoun have not scored multiple goals against Detroit since May 2022, and have not scored a goal at home against Detroit in that time as well. The result of this match might be tougher to predict, so let’s go for under 2.5 goals. But any outcome at even or better odds is surely worth a wager.
Bet 1: Under 2.5 goals (1.75)
Bet 2: Draw (3.25)
(A 1-1 draw is odds of 6.50)
Hartford v Charleston
4.20 - 3.75 - 1.70
This one fixture in recent memory has been nothing short of must-watch matches. The highlights of these games have been filled with goals, as in the last seven games of this series, six of these games have been BTTS, each one going over 3.5 goals (with a further five of them going over 4.5 goals)! In a series largely dominated by Charleston (who have gone unbeaten in the last five meetings), lots of goals has been a long-standing promise.
With both of these teams entering this match with just one defeat in their last five games played, let’s pick another really fun match for this series with plenty of goals.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.05)
(I’d lean Charleston to get a result if you want to add on a double chance).
Indy Eleven v Pittsburgh
2.35 - 3.25 - 3.00
This series is on a strange streak at the moment, the home side has not won any of the last five matchups between these teams, and to take it a step further, Indy Eleven have not beaten Pittsburgh at home since August 2020 (four home matches versus the Riverhounds ago). Which side you believe can pick up the result in this match, I think will dictate the number of goals scored in this fixture. In the six fixtures in the league where Pittsburgh won or tied, all of them were under 2.5 goals. However, in seven of Indy Eleven’s ten matches played in the league this year, that match went over 2.5 goals.
In weird symmetry, Indy Eleven have scored double the amount of goals in the league as Pittsburgh and have conceded double the amount of goals in the league as well. I am going to back the visitors to pick up another result in this series, and Pittsburgh to keep this match under 2.5 goals.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.30)
Lexington v New Mexico
2.60 - 3.40 - 2.50
I do not like looking at a fixture within USL and saying immediately, one side has no chance at winning, as anything can happen on a matchday in this league, but it is really tough for me to see New Mexico losing this match. To Lexington’s credit, they have been scoring more in recent matches, getting a goal in three consecutive games for the first time since March. But Lexington are still looking for their first win since March as well, and welcoming the Western Conference leaders to town this weekend is not the advantageous matchup.
New Mexico’s last two road matches in the league were 3-0 results as well, as NMU are tied for the second best road record in league play at the moment. New Mexico to win is an immediate wager for me, especially at those odds! If you want to go a step further, New Mexico to cover -1.5.
Bet 1: New Mexico to win (2.50)
Bet 2: New Mexico to cover -1.5 (5.25)
Rhode Island v North Carolina
2.30 - 3.40 - 2.75
It was a 2-1 defeat midweek against Louisville last time out for Rhode Island. RIFC had not lost back to back matches since September 2024, and will want to avoid making it three consecutive defeats for the first time ever in club history when they take on a North Carolina FC team who have won four matches in a row for the first time since April 2023 (first time since they rejoined USLC). Outside of one high-scoring 4-2 win over Oakland, NCFC has put together a trio of 1-0 results in these previous four wins. Entering this road fixture, NCFC have also won three in a row away from home.
Having since moved into their new home stadium, Rhode Island fans still have yet to see their team lead in match at home, and no wins yet to show for it. 150’ have elapsed in the amount of time RIFC has trailed at their new home stadium this year—or enough time to watch The Avengers (2012) in its entirety. The wager will mostly depend on do you think Rhode Island can finally take a lead in a match at home, or will North Carolina score first. I will offer to options of wagers for this match.
Bet 1: North Carolina to score first (2.25)
Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals (1.66)
Parlay both: 4.00
Tampa Bay v Miami
1.72 - 3.90 - 3.80
In the other Florida derby taking place in the Tampa Bay region tomorrow, the Rowdies play host to The Miami FC. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have resulted in matches going BTTS and over 2.5 goals. But this Rowdies team has not beaten a USLC opponent since the last time they faced Miami, back in March of this year. Miami meanwhile could win back-to-back games against USLC opposition for the first time since October 2023.
I am going to have this match being one of our other games with goals in it, and lean towards the hosts getting a result, maybe against better judgement.
Bet: Tampa Bay win or tie, BTTS (1.86)
Louisville v Birmingham
1.61 - 3.90 - 4.50
In the most recent edition of the USL’s The Rondo email newsletter, it postulated the question of how much further can Louisville City take their current unbeaten run. It was a standard 2-1 win for Louisville midweek against Rhode Island, on Wednesday to make it 12 matches unbeaten in the league. With tomorrow’s match, Louisville can make it three wins in a row at home for the first time since November 2024, but they welcome a Birmingham Legion team who has historically been somewhat of a thorn in the side of Louisville. In the history of this series, Birmingham has won four of the 14 total matches played, including two of the last five.
It seems like under Mark Briggs, Birmingham have still been working to figure out themselves as a club. For two solid wins back-to-back, against Miami and Tulsa to close out May, the 1-0 defeat at home to Indy Eleven where they dominated total shots, sticks out as a worry.
All eight wins by Louisville this season has gone over 1.5 goals, with four of those wins being BTTS. Nine matches against USL opposition this year for Birmingham have been BTTS as well. While Birmingham may very well find the back of the net in this match, let’s do the Louisville classic: a ML win and over 1.5 goals.
Bet: Louisville to win, Over 1.5 total goals (1.90)
Tulsa v Phoenix
1.85 - 3.70 - 3.50
This is a series that always seems to throw in a random high-scoring fixture to buck the trend of games that hit under 2.5 goals. Save for a chaotic 3-3 draw from last season, five of the last six games of this series have gone under 2.5 goals, with four of those games not being BTTS. Phoenix however has been riding rather good form entering this match, unbeaten in their last five games played, while Tulsa have just one defeat in their last five games.
Both of these team have scored in each of those five games played, but one thing that jumps out to me is Tulsa boasts the West’s best defense in the league with just 8 goals conceded. But Phoenix has the conference’s best scoring record on 22 goals scored. This is a very underrated match to watch this weekend, the unstoppable force (Phoenix’s attack) is meeting the immovable object (Tulsa’s defense). I think we see a BTTS, but it is hard to make sense of which way this result could fall (Phoenix prevailed on penalties, 1-1 in the USOC earlier this season).
Bet: BTTS (1.72)
Colorado Springs v Oakland
1.70 - 3.90 - 4.20
The first match of the Benny Feilhaber era for Oakland ended up being a tough fought 0-0 draw against El Paso last week, but next up for his second game in charge of the club are the reigning league champions, Colorado Springs on the road. The Switchbacks managed to hold onto a draw off of just 35% possession against New Mexico last week for their first back-to-back unbeaten run when scoring a goal since March.
Oakland has gone goalless on their last two trips to Colorado Springs and have not won (or scored) here since June 2023, which was also the last time Colorado Springs were shutout against Oakland. I think this Roots team is still working to get things figured out and give that they have never visited this stadium and scored multiple goals, I have the Switchbacks getting a result and holding Oakland under 1.5 goals.
Bet: Colorado Springs win, Oakland under 1.5 team goals (1.86)
El Paso v Orange County
1.90 - 3.60 - 3.50
If results go their way, El Paso could be back atop of the Western Conference after this weekend. The current top six of the West has seemingly provided a gap to the rest of the conference, something Orange County currently sits at the top of this next group of clubs behind this gap. Orange County have lost four of their last five, but saw their last four games go over 2.5 goals. El Paso by comparison only has one defeat in their last five games and three of those games have been under 2.5 goals.
In this series history, the last five games between these clubs have not had BTTS, with the record being an even split of two wins apiece and a draw in that time. I lean El Paso to get a result in this match and let’s play over 2.5 goals.
Bet: El Paso win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Las Vegas v Monterey Bay
2.35 - 3.25 - 2.80
The major news out of the clubs involved in this fixture will be Las Vegas Lights’ sacking Antonio Nocerino earlier this week, just five months into the job. As someone who was critical of how this Lights team had played all season up until now, the decision to part ways with the manager does not come as a surprise ultimately. What’s going to be key to wagering this match however is how well you think Monterey Bay can adjust to an opponent who might be quite differently set up to how they’ve been playing in recent weeks. Is this match the start of a new season ahead for Las Vegas or does Monterey Bay put those hopes on delay for another matchweek.
While I still believe this could develop into a better Las Vegas team, and backing them to score a goal this week might be worth it for a somewhat new manager bounce, it is hard to overlook a Lights team who have entered this match losing five in a row. Especially since Monterey Bay have not lost to Las Vegas in each of their last four meetings against them, dating back to September 2022. Off the back of three wins in a row for MBFC for the first time since March of this year, I like the visitors to walk away with three points here (particularly as underdogs), but perhaps adding on Las Vegas to end their goalless woes might offer some enhanced odds.
Bet: Monterey Bay to win (2.80)
Adding on BTTS to the above would provide 4.33 odds.
Sacramento v San Antonio
2.15 - 3.40 - 3.00
In the history of this series, you’d have to go back to September 2021—or when Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) was the number one movie in theaters—to find the last time the visiting team won this match (San Antonio 1-0 in that fixture). That’s seven consecutive games of this series that the home team got a result. Both of these teams’ most recent win came against Las Vegas (who have aforementioned, sacked their manager now). Sacramento have not lost back-to-back home games vs USL opposition since September 2021 (that San Antonio win from above being the first of those two fixtures).
I am going to go rather safe in this wager to close out the USLC slate and just pick Sacramento pick a result.
Bet: Sacramento win or tie (1.36)
USL1
Knoxville v Richmond
1.90 - 3.40 - 3.50
The weekend’s slate of USL matches gets us started with Knoxville v Richmond tonight, an all-time series that sees the hosts still searching for their first ever win against the Kickers (three draws and one Richmond win all-time). Both teams enter this game on frustrating winless runs however, Knoxville with no wins in their last six, Richmond no wins in their last nine. It’s felt like each of these teams have had results slip away from them in recent weeks, which makes this match tonight tougher to predict. I am going to lean towards Knoxville to get a result from this match and to better our odds, let’s go with us seeing under 2.5 goals as well (which has hit in four of the last five Knoxville games, and three of the last five Richmond games).
Bet: Knoxville win or tie, under 2.5 goals (1.95)
Naples v Chattanooga
2.00 - 3.30 - 3.10
After the rather comical display of a pitch the last time these two teams met (which saw Chattanooga win 3-1 on a soggy pitch on a Wednesday afternoon), Naples will be eager for payback this weekend as the host the Red Wolves. Chattanooga enter this match having gone unbeaten through their last five games, a streak they have not done against USL1 opposition since August 2022. Naples however, have weirdly gone through a cold patch of form themselves, with just one win in their last five games (but they have scored in each of those matches).
Having moved away from the tricky to play at CHI Memorial Stadium, Chattanooga are back on the road where they have just one victory away from home on the season. I have to think Naples is able to get a draw at minimum from this match, along with scoring the opening goal (which they have done in three of their last five games, and in four of their seven home games this season).
Bet: Naples win or tie, Naples to score first (1.75)
Texoma v Tormenta
3.00 - 3.50 - 2.05
Texoma are now winners of three in a row! After a team who started the season almost unanimously picked to be in the basement of USL1, the side has climbed into the heart of the playoff race now, looking to make it four wins in a row! Tormenta on the other side has seen their fortunes fall apart in recent weeks, having lost four matches in a row entering this game. It’s the first time since May 2021 that Tormenta have lost four games in a row, and the side has not lost five matches in a row in club history.
Given their recent form, if Texoma can score multiple goals, I believe they will have enough to see out the result in this match as Tormenta have not scored multiple goals in any of their last four games played. But, it certainly feels like both of these teams can see a reversal of their form in an instance. Let’s be safe and just pick goals in this match.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.80)
Spokane v Madison
2.00 - 3.20 - 3.30
Madison were able to halt their run of five consecutive draws with their match against Omaha last time out, it was just a defeat that ended that run. Madison still have not won a match since March 29th, a 2-1 win over Richmond (also the last time Madison scored multiple goals in a match). In eight of the last nine Madison games against USL opposition, the goals margin has been under 2.5 goals (quite often, a 1-1 scoreline). League leaders Spokane Velocity has seemingly run into a small patch of bad form, as the club has not won any of their last three games (and their last five games have gone under 2.5 goals).
I believe we should be in for a low-scoring affair, leaning towards the hosts though.
Bet: Spokane win or tie, Under 2.5 goals (2.00)
Portland v Omaha
No odds as of writing
Last night, Omaha were able to pick up their first back-to-back wins since they lifted the USL1 title last season, with a 1-0 win over Greenville. It was the first time since October 2024 that Omaha back-to-back clean sheets as well. For our reigning champions, I do believe they are starting to re-gather their form after what had been a bumpy start to the season. Portland however are still looking for their second win in league play, but has scored a goal in each of the last six matches played (with four of those games going over 2.5 goals).
In two of the last three home games for Portland, they scored the opening goal (versus one of the last three road games for Omaha saw them scoring first). Omaha has won just one match this season when the game goes over 2.5 goals. If you believe this will be a low-scoring contest, back Omaha to get the result, and vice versa for Portland if you think this game goes over 2.5 goals. I fancy the goals to continue to Portland as they get at minimum a result out of this game.
Bet: Portland win or tie, over 2.5 goals
Charlotte v Greenville
No odds as of writing
I keep sounding the alarm on Greenville that I am worried for this team’s performances. Outside of the Jagermeister Cup win over Charleston, this Triumph team has not won any of their last seven games in the league. That said, Greenville’s last win in the league did come against Charlotte, in a 1-0 result on April 5th—69 days ago (nice). I have been rather high on this Independence team as of late, as they have scored a goal in their last 11 games against USL opposition (though it was Greenville who were the last team to keep a clean sheet against Charlotte).
It might be over-complicating things to add on a goals leg to the parlay, so I am simply backing Charlotte to get a win over Greenville (however eight of the last eleven Charlotte games have been over 2.5 goals).
Bet: Charlotte to win
Westchester v AV Alta
No odds as of writing
It happened again last week (and helped us cash a wager of 5.00 odds too), but Westchester scored the opening goal of the match, but had to settle for a draw (at least it was not a defeat this week). As AV Alta, unbeaten in their last five games—though with just one win in 90’ in that span—make the trip across the country, is this finally the week Westchester can score first and win, or will it be the visitors getting the result? AV Alta won the first meeting of these two clubs, 2-0, back in April, it was the last time that Westchester had been shutout in a match.
Something has to give for Westchester sooner or later after scoring first, right? Let’s back the same usual wager for Westchester once more though.
Bet: Westchester to score first, AV Alta win or tie
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Charleston, Louisville, Colorado Springs: 4.66
El Paso and Sacramento: 4.08
New Mexico and Naples: 5.00
BTTS or Goals Over/Under Parlay:
Hartford v Charleston, Tampa Bay v Miami, Tulsa v Phoenix all BTTS: 4.65
Louisville v Birmingham and El Paso v Orange County all BTTS: 2.61
Loudoun v Detroit and Indy Eleven v Pittsburgh both under 2.5 goals (2.88)
Texoma v Tormenta over 2.5 goals and Spokane v Madison under 2.5 goals (2.97)
Underdog Parlay:
Monterey Bay ML, Pittsburgh win or tie: 4.40
North Carolina and Phoenix win or tie: 2.82
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 17.85
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
MLS
Portland win or tie, BTTS and over 2.5 goals vs San Jose (2.20)
Chicago v Nashville: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (1.72)
Philadelphia v Charlotte: Philadelphia win or tie, BTTS (1.86)
Vancouver double chance v Columbus (1.90)
St Louis City v LA Galaxy BTTS, Orlando win or tie (2.09)
Gold Cup
Would it not be in recent form for the USMNT to not get a win against Trinidad & Tobago. T&T are 5.50 win or tie on Sunday. I think the USA win, but it would be in recent form to not get three points in the opening group stage match.
Mexico, Costa Rica, Jamaica ML parlay (3.49)
Other Sports:
Friday MLB
Tigers ML vs the Reds (1.76)
Yankees at Red Sox over 8.5 runs (1.90)
Blue Jays ML at Phillies (2.00)
Padres at Diamondbacks over 9.5 runs (1.95)
Player prop parlay:
Ohtani (LAD) and Judge (NYY) 1+ hit, De La Cruz (CIN) 1+ strikeout (2.40)
College Baseball
Oregon State ML and over 9.5 runs vs Louisville (2.80)
UCLA -2.5 run line vs Murray State (1.95)
LSU vs Arkansas over 9 runs (1.86)
NBA Finals Game Four
This series might go the distance now after Indiana won game three. The odds are not worth an OKC ML (1.43), but the Thunder need a massive bounce back performance tonight.
Indiana +6
Gilgeous-Alexander under 33.5 points (1.86)
Haliburton over 18.5 points (2.00)
Stanley Cup Finals Game Five
Edmonton to win game five (1.83)
It’s boosted by the parlay of both teams over 2.5 goals and the game ending in OT is 8.50 and is tempting.
Formula 1, Canadian Gran Prix from Montreal
McLaren winning car in qualifying: 1.44
Verstappen podium finish: 1.61
Williams both cars points finish: 1.72
Isack Hadjar points finish: 2.37
NASCAR Cup Mexico City
I’d wait to make any wagers until post-qualifying but here is what I am seeing pre-qualifying. Many drivers are inexperienced at this circuit.
Shane Van Gisbergen top five finish 1.50
SVG to finish as the top Chevrolet driver is 3.20, but there might be better odds on Byron (6.50), Larson (8.00) or Allmendinger (10.00)
Toyota winning manufacturer at 4.00 is tempting (Chevrolet is 1.40)
Christopher Bell top Toyota driver (2.15)
McDowell to beat Suarez head to head (2.20)
Cindric to beat Gibbs head to head (2.40)
Final Thoughts
I noticed it this previous weekend, but depending on your sportsbook of choice (I use bet365), you might be able to wager on USL League Two matches. With the regular season at the halfway mark, one month left until the playoffs, we have a decent collection of data and form to go off of for match bets. Please take into account that these games could be extremely volatile in the shift in odds given how few, I imagine, wagers might be placed on them globally. Furthermore, the results of these games can be incredibly frustrating to predict, for ourselves and the sportsbook setting the odds. Be very cautioned before placing a wager on these USL2 games if you have the opportunity. I can plan on making a Bluesky post on the odds I like for USL2, tomorrow.
On Hulu, but the latest entry into the Predator franchise, Predator: Killer of Killers (2025), was a surprisingly good watch for me earlier this week. The animation was stellar and the fight sequences really well-choreographed. I would recommend a watch as I enjoyed it, especially for someone not fully familiar with the franchise.
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.