USL Odds, July 4
Past the halfway point of the season.
Three USL competitions on the schedule this weekend as we tick past the halfway mark of the season! With games tonight, tomorrow and Sunday, it is a full weekend of USL action! Having reached this point of the season, many trends and reliable wagers have already started to emerge and have been solid returns for us in previous weeks. Best of luck on your bets this weekend!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, July 4th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Jagermeister Cup/USL1: Miami win or tie (1.30), Hartford v Detroit Over 2.5 goals (1.95), Pittsburgh v Westchester Under 2.5 goals (2.62), Richmond v Lexington Over 2.5 goals (1.75), Tormenta win or tie (1.90), Tulsa to win (1.42), Phoenix win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (2.25), New Mexico win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.80), San Antonio to win (2.10), AV Alta win or tie (1.40)
Parlays: Louisville, Tulsa ML (2.29), Richmond v Lexington over 2.5 goals and Pittsburgh v Westchester under 2.5 goals (4.59),
Beyond USL: Chicago v Charlotte: BTTS, over 2.5 goals, Cuypers goal or assist anytime (2.40), Orlando v Cincinnati and San Jose v LA Galaxy each BTTS (2.14), San Diego ML v Dallas (2.10), Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases (2.10), Bortoleto to beat Hulkenberg h2h (1.83), Norris to beat Piastri h2h (1.83), McLaren both cars podium finish (1.53), Under 18.5 classified drivers (1.80), Norris to win (2.87), Chase Elliott to finish top ten (1.80), Chevrolet winning manufacturer (2.30),
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Pittsburgh v New Mexico
1.75 - 3.30 - 4.33
CBS Golazo gets us started tonight, as the Western Conference leading, New Mexico United, make the trip to Highmark Stadium to play Bob Lilley’s Pittsburgh Riverhounds. In three all-time meetings, it’s been split evenly with a draw and win apiece. New Mexico are entering this match with their last nine games played being over 2.5 goals (with their previous five games played being BTTS). But this is Highmark we are talking about, high-scoring games are a rarity (meaning perhaps there are decent odds to be had their…). Just once in the previous 11 games at Highmark, dating back to last season, has it gone over 2.5 goals (coincidentally, the most recent Riverhounds league game was that match).
Scoring the opening goal of this match will be crucial, thus I think the side that scores first will at minimum, walk away here with a point. I am backing a draw on this match, but keeping it low-scoring is always a reliable play for Riverhounds home games.
Bet 1: Draw (3.30)
Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals (1.61)
Colorado Springs v Louisville
2.80 - 3.10 - 2.30
For what it’s worth, each of Louisville’s defeats against USL opposition this year have come away from home, but as we have seen in previous weeks, Louisville ML and over 1.5 total goals in the match has typically been very reliable for our wagers. While Colorado Springs is never an easy place to enter (three all-time meetings between these teams and only once has Louisville won in Colorado Springs, but they are unbeaten all-time against the Switchbacks), the defending champions look incredibly different to the title winning side of last year.
Let’s continue to ride with Louisville ML bets until they start becoming unreliable for us. A stray thought crosses my mind about the venue playing a factor in this one, but I like Louisville to win and let’s add on the goals leg as well.
Bet: Louisville to win, over 1.5 total goals (3.00)
El Paso v San Antonio
2.00 - 3.10 - 3.40
A matchup of two teams in the top four of the Western Conference, and a nearly even historical series to boot. San Antonio holds the slim lead over El Paso, five wins versus four draws and four defeats in the all-time matchup. SAFC are looking to make it three wins in a row for the first time since March while want to get a home victory for the first time since May.
The last three El Paso wins have seen BTTS, while San Antonio’s last three wins have each been “win to nil” games. If this game gets into a high-scoring contest, I back El Paso to get a result, but if it is kept low-scoring, San Antonio may have the advantage.
Bet: El Paso win or tie, BTTS (2.20)
Las Vegas v Sacramento
3.20 - 3.25 - 2.05
Sacramento have certainly not been kind to Las Vegas in previous meetings this season, putting four goals and five goals past them in two matches played in 2025 already. But those Lights teams were under the previous management and this new team under interim manager, Giovanni Troise, have won three in a row with Las Vegas for the first time since May, each game being a “win to nil” no less. The Lights have not conceded a goal in 299’ played, or nearly five hours, or enough time to watch the first two movies of the Matrix franchise in their entirety.
Sacramento will surely remember their previous meetings against Las Vegas when approaching this game, but the Republic have not won in Las Vegas since July 2023, and with one win in their previous five games played (each game going under 2.5 goals), perhaps this is the Lights’ chance to right some wrongs of previous meetings.
Bet: Las Vegas win or tie (1.61)
Phoenix v Lexington
1.80 - 3.10 - 4.10
Phoenix played out the match of the Jagermeister Cup thus far, this past weekend, as we saw Rising winning a nine-goal thriller against Texoma with a 90+6’ winning goal to seal the 5-4 victory. Phoenix games have become most-watch viewings for me as it is worth tuning to see the high-scoring and highest-conceding team in the Western Conference play (Ange-ball, to reference a former Spurs manager, anyone?). Lexington though have figured things out seemingly, three wins in a row and a dominating showing against Richmond, 3-0, last week in the cup was the highest winning margin since October 2024.
Lexington have the results of recent memory on their side, but I think Phoenix pull them into a shootout of a match. I have backed Rising to win in our USL Show weekly pick’em, but add on a separate parlay to this match of BTTS/over 2.5 goals (or just Phoenix to win and BTTS if you wanted to back the hosts like me).
Bet: Phoenix win, BTTS (4.33)
or for a safer option: BTTS/over 2.5 goals (2.50)
Miami v Tulsa
2.60 - 3.30 - 2.35
More people, myself included, need to be taking notice of FC Tulsa. The Oklahoma club has the best defense in league play and are unbeaten in their last five league matches played. Part of that league’s best defense also comes along with a low-scoring offense as well, only Las Vegas and Oakland have scored fewer in the West, leading to plenty of their games going under 2.5 goals. Miami enter this game off the back of two straight defeats and will want to avoid three losses in a row for the first time since the end of their dreadful campaign from last season.
I think this match will be one of bad memories for Miami, as they lose three in a row, with Tulsa grabbing the opening goal. But given these odds, I think keeping them separate for two wagers is enticing enough, but a parlay is quite intriguing.
Bet 1: Tulsa to win (2.35)
Bet 2: Tulsa to score first (1.83)
Parlay: 2.62
Rhode Island v Birmingham
1.57 - 4.10 - 4.20
Across three all-time meetings, Rhode Island are undefeated against Birmingham, three wins that outscored the Legion 6-1 in that time. Entering this match, Rhode Island have won two of their last three games played for the first time since May, and will look to get back-to-back wins at home for the first time since September 2024. Birmingham was able to hold on for a 0-0 draw with Charleston midweek on Wednesday, but have just one win in their previous six games played (and no wins away from home since May).
I see this as a match that could push us really close to the over/under 2.5 goals line at the moment, while Birmingham games have usually been kept rather low-scoring as of late (just one of their previous six games played have gone over 2.5 goals and just two were BTTS), Rhode Island games have seen more goals to them as three of their last four played have been over 2.5 goals (with RIFC winning two of those three games). Leaning towards the hosts on this one and let’s add that Birmingham does not make it high-scoring.
Bet: Rhode Island win or tie, Birmingham under 0.5 team goals (2.50)
Indy Eleven v Monterey Bay
1.61 - 3.70 - 4.50
Monterey Bay had began the year as what many reacted to, a surprise package in the West. But recent weeks has seen MBFC slide back down the table, towards expectations from preseason, as the side have not lost three in a row, and will want to avoid four consecutive defeats for the first time since August 2023. Similarly, Indy Eleven have gone cold as well, no wins in any of their previous three played as they currently sit outside the playoff picture looking in.
With three previous meetings between these clubs, on two occasions, we have seen this game hit over 4.5 goals, but only once has the hosting team won the match. But, in the league, Indy Eleven has just one win at home, while Monterey Bay has one victory on the road. Something has to give, and I lean the way of hosts to get a result, but BTTS seems to be the simpler wager.
Bet: BTTS (1.80)
Oakland v Detroit
3.10 - 3.25 - 2.05
Oakland made it back-to-back wins under new manager Benny Feilhaber last week with a derby victory over Monterey Bay. The Roots hadn’t won two games in a row since August 2024, and if they can beat Detroit this weekend, they will have won three in a row for the first time since June 2024. Last time out for Detroit, they won on penalties in a Jagermeister Cup match against Hartford 2-2, a Matthew Sheldon brace with the tying goal at 90’ to rescue the result for them. In the league however, a loss this weekend for Detroit would mean they would have lost three consecutive games in the league on the road for first time since July 2023.
Oakland have yet to beat Detroit all-time, DCFC going three wins and two draws against the Roots (even including their NISA days together). A result is tough for me to predict on this game, so I will lean towards Oakland win or tie, with a goal likely coming in the first half.
Bet: Oakland win or tie, over 0.5 total goals in the first half (2.50)
Charleston v North Carolina
1.61- 3.75 - 4.33
One last match of the weekend to finish off the USLC schedule, and it’s a Carolina Derby between Charleston and North Carolina. The Battery drew Birmingham on Wednesday to make it two consecutive draws in games for the first time since June of last year, North Carolina meanwhile has lost two of their previous three games played, despite winning four in a row entering that stretch. NCFC does have bragging rights over the Battery at the moment, having beaten Charleston in March at the start of the season, but NCFC has still yet to win in Charleston since they made the move into the USL ecosystem.
I am backing the hosts in this one to get the win, but I do believe both teams find goals in this match.
Bet: Charleston to win, BTTS (3.75)
USL1
Chattanooga v Knoxville
2.87 - 3.30 - 2.20
A Tennessee derby highlights a weekend of USL1 action, and it’s a derby that has been quite one-sided in recent years. Knoxville impressively went unbeaten through 2024 against their in-state rivals as Chattanooga has not beaten Knoxville since July 2023—when Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One (2023) was in theaters. But, Knoxville has just one victory away at Chattanooga all-time and those games played at Chattanooga, three all-time, has only seen over 2.5 goals once.
The Red Wolves are looking to avoid three consecutive defeats across all competitions for the first time since October 2024, while Knoxville has just one win in their previous eight games played. The unbeaten run Knoxville has against Chattanooga, currently on four, has quite noteworthy, but this Red Wolves team this season feels more frustrating to play against than they have ever been to feel overly confident in picking a result against them.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.75)
Texoma v Madison
3.40 - 3.50 - 1.90
Texoma has gotten it figured out in recent weeks, a statement I have been repeating a bit in previous articles, but it is true. I have been impressed with how well this team has gotten things turned around on the season, continued by the fact that they earned a hard-fought draw with Spokane on Wednesday. Of Texoma’s last seven games played, five of them have gone over 2.5 goals. Meanwhile for Madison, they finally picked up their first win since March last week, with a 1-0 result over Knoxville in the Jagermeister Cup. One thing that is holding me back from saying this would be a slam dunk over 2.5 goals pick is the fact that Madison have not scored multiple goals in a game since March (their aforementioned last win before last week). Though two of their previous three games have gone over 2.5 goals, it was in losing efforts of 1-2 scorelines.
I think in writing that, I may have talked myself into another match going over 2.5 goals for Texoma, in a match I think the hosts get a result at minimum, and probably should walk away with all three points.
Bet: Texoma win or tie, over 2.5 goals (4.20)
AV Alta v Omaha
2.25 - 3.25 - 2.80
AV Alta might be USL1’s hottest team at the moment as they have gone unbeaten in their last nine games played, and are coming into this match off the back of 2-0 win on one of the longest road trips in the league, over Portland away. AV Alta return home where they have not lost a match at since April. Omaha should probably be finding the panic button here as they have now lost three in a row across all competitions, for the first time since September 2020. In completely uncharted difficulties for the club, Omaha really need a match to get things turned around in.
I am not sure I see it happening for the visitors in this match, so I will be backing AV Alta to win this one and extend their unbeaten run to ten games.
Bet: AV Alta to win (2.25)
Portland v Tormenta
No odds as of writing
The last USL1 match of the weekend features Portland and Tormenta. Both sides enter this match with just one victory in their last five games played and with each currently outside the playoff picture at the moment (and will still be after full time on Sunday), a win could be what a team is needing to get back into their season. One thing that jumps out to me with these odds will be the goals line. The last four Tormenta games and five of the last six Portland games have all gone over 2.5 goals and leads me to thinking this match could follow a similar pattern.
In trying to find another wager to pair with over 2.5 goals to make it more enticing, the last three league games played by Portland has seen their opponents score the opening goal, with three of the last four league games played by Tormenta seeing their opponents score first. I would go over 2.5 goals in this match, and then pick either team you think will score first. I lean towards Portland.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals, Portland to score first goal
Jagermeister Cup
Naples v Tampa Bay
3.60 - 3.25 - 1.95
A wild Jagermeister Cup match appears, the lone game of the competition this weekend, and it is a Floridian Derby between Naples and Tampa Bay. These two clubs already met in the USOC earlier this season, which saw Tampa Bay advancing on penalties. Tampa Bay makes a return to Naples this weekend off the back of better than the start to the season, but inconsistent form, as the Rowdies have alternated wins and losses for their last five games (they won last time out…). Naples meanwhile has seen their form gone cold, with no wins in their previous five games (dating back to May 25th to find their last win). However Naples have scored in their previous nine games, with the Rowdies have scored in their previous six played.
I think both teams finding the back of the net seems like and I lean towards this game going over 2.5 goals as that line has hit in each of the Rowdies previous five games played, and in seven of Naples’ previous eight games played.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (2.15)
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Louisville, Phoenix, Charleston ML (6.68)
Rhode Island, Tulsa ML (3.69)
Goals/BTTS Parlay:
Phoenix v Lexington and Indy Eleven v Monterey Bay each BTTS (3.30)
Pittsburgh v New Mexico and Chattanooga v Knoxville each under 2.5 goals (2.82)
Underdog Parlay:
New Mexico win or tie, Las Vegas win or tie, Oakland win or tie (4.98)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 8.87 (extremely low odds for this parlay)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
MLS:
Charlotte v Orlando BTTS, over 2.5 goals (1.72)
Minnesota win or tie, Vancouver win or tie (2.40)
Cincinnati v Chicago BTTS, over 2.5 goals, Cuypers to score or assist anytime
Gold Cup final:
Mexico to lift trophy, BTTS (3.50)
Other Sports:
Friday MLB:
Yankees at Mets over 9.5 runs
Juan Soto 2+ total bases (2.35)
Tigers to beat the Guardians (1.76)
Brewers at Marlins over 8 runs (1.86)
Formula 1, British Grand Prix at Silverstone:
Qualiyfing
Lando Norris on pole (2.37)
Race
Nationality of Winner: British (1.66)
Carlos Sainz not to be classified (5.50)
Lewis Hamilton podium finish (1.72)
Lando Norris to win (2.37)
NASCAR, Grant Park 165, Chicago Street Circuit:
Shane Van Gisbergen top five finish (1.20)
Christopher Bell top Toyota driver (2.30)
Chris Buescher to beat Will Brown (1.66)
Shane Van Gisbergen to win pole in qualifying (2.00)
Chevrolet winning manufacturer (1.44)
Final Thoughts
A huge thank you to Atletico Dallas on sending me their home kit this past week! The wolf and snake logo is one of the best crests not just within USL, but in U.S. Soccer as a whole. I quite like the ‘Dallas’ across the front of the shirt as well. Plus, I have more stickers to add to my U.S. Soccer sticker map as well.
The F1 (2025) movie was pretty good. Fun Summer film, seeing the racing scenes on the big screen made it worth the price of admission for me. It falls middle of the road on my brand new, ‘Favorite Car Racing Movies’ rankings on Letterboxd, but I enjoyed it.
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.