USL Odds, June 27
Another weekend of Jagermeister Cup action!
A return of the Jagermeister Cup games marks our final weekend of June, and with the latter matches of the initial group stage playing out before us, many teams over the next day will learn their fates and likelihood on advancing to the knockouts in this competition. With the goals tiebreaker still in play for the group stage placement, let’s hope it encourages many teams to push for high-scoring games (and thus letting us hit on numerous over 2.5 goals wagers).
Check out Nicholas Murray’s article on the Jagermeister Cup weekend preview as well!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet. As with all Jagermeister Cup matches, these games are decided on penalties if the game is tied after 90’. My result selections below are within 90’ only. Also of note, wager options are typically fewer for this competition’s games than a regular season USLC match.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, June 27.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Detroit win or tie, Detroit to score the first goal (1.50), Rhode Island v Sacramento Under 2.5 goals (1.90), Charleston win or tie, BTTS (1.95), New Mexico v San Antonio BTTS (1.66), Monterey Bay v El Paso BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.00)
USL1: Spokane to win (1.95)
Parlays: North Carolina v Louisville, Charleston v Phoenix, New Mexico v San Antonio all BTTS (4.65),
Beyond USL: Jamaica and Panama ML (2.16), Reds at Cardinals no run in first inning (1.86), Rangers -1.5 spread at Pirates (1.95), Chase Elliott top ten finish (1.66), Chase Elliott to beat Tyler Reddick h2h (2.25),
Jagermeister Cup
Rhode Island v Portland
1.53 - 4.10 - 4.75
A New England derby gets us started for the weekend. Rhode Island won the initial first meeting of these two clubs in the Open Cup, a 2-1 victory away (a match that saw two red cards in it as well). But both teams seem much more different since that April Open Cup meeting. Since that defeat in April, Portland have seen their form pick up, with just two defeats in all competitions. Rhode Island meanwhile enter this match with four defeats in their previous six game splayed. The major statline surrounding Rhode Island lately has been their performance at home since moving to their new stadium. RIFC have been outscored 4-8 by opponents in their new home, across all competitions (just one of those matches has seen RIFC score the opening goal too).
All that being said, given the run of form Portland have been on as of late, I think Hearts of Pine pick up a result after 90’ played in this match and get the upset to avoid defeat.
Bet: Portland win or tie (2.25)
Loudoun v Charlotte
1.70 - 3.70 - 3.90
Very simple this wager for me, I had picked this match on Wednesday, after Loudoun’s loss to Louisville to already be over 2.5 goals and I’m sticking to it. Both of Charlotte’s previous two Jagermeister Cup games have seen the match go over 2.5 goals (which make up two of the nine total fixtures the Independence have played against USL opposition this year that has gone over 2.5 goals). Meanwhile Loudoun have seen six of their previous seven games go over 2.5 goals as well, but have lost consecutive matches for the first time since October 2024, so if there is a result to lean this weekend, pick Charlotte (and as Phil Baki would say, the “‘LADS’ protocol” may still be in full effect).
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.72)
Madison v Knoxville
2.30 - 3.10 - 2.80
This match kicks off a three game road trip for Knoxville, who ended a winless run of six games last week with a 3-0 victory over Tormenta. Madison however are looking to end their own winless run of 12 consecutive games against USL opposition, and looking to avoid losing four games in a row for the first time since September and October 2022. There have been 8 matches played between these two teams and 5 of them have ended in draws. It has been nearly a year to the day (June 29th, Knoxville winning 1-0) for the last time this series saw a non-draw.
I am leaning towards Knoxville getting the result in this one and probably should pick them to get a win here, but wouldn’t a draw after 90’ not only fit this series historically, but also fit this Madison team who have drawn 7 of their 14 games against USL opposition this season?
Bet: Draw (3.10)
Greenville v Miami
2.90 - 3.60 - 2.05
This might be one of the more trickier to predict matches of the weekend. On one hand, I have been fading Greenville a lot this season and Miami have looked much better than seasons’ past. But given their results last week, Greenville looking strong for their first win by multiple goals since March, and the fact that Triumph defeated Charleston in their most recent meeting against a USLC club, have I talked myself into a pick for Greenville? It’s a compelling case to be made but I am sticking with Miami, the group’s current leaders, who could really start to make their plans for the knockout stage with a result this weekend.
Bet: Miami win or tie (1.30)
Hartford v Detroit
2.25 - 3.30 - 2.70
A pair of clubs who picked up desperately needed victories last week. Hartford won just their second match in the league with a dominating 3-0 victory—it was Hartford’s highest margin of victory against another USL club since September 2024 in a 3-0 scoreline over Miami. Speaking of Miami, Detroit would pick up 2-0 win at home over Miami to halt a seven match winless run against USL opposition. With both clubs coming off confidence boosting results, can they carry that over into the Jagermeister?
Hartford shockingly find themselves in the midst of a good position to advance—helped by a schedule front-loaded with USL1 opposition—and a win in regulation this week would really help cement their place in the next round. A Detroit win in regulation would make this Group 4 advancement scenario very interesting. In their seven matches all-time, Detroit has won two games in Hartford, but none since 2023. Their last three meetings have all seen under 2.5 goals as well, each team getting a 1-0 win and a 1-1 draw in that time. Given their recent results this season though, I actually like this match to go over 2.5 goals—which has happened in 4 of the previous 5 Hartford games and 3 of the previous 5 Detroit games.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.95)
Indy Eleven v Birmingham
1.95 - 3.50 - 3.25
The Mark Briggs era at Birmingham has seen a mixed bag of results for the Alabama club, three wins in the ten games he has overseen, with just four of those games going over 2.5 goals. Indy Eleven as of late has seen much of their progress hit a wall, as they have lost back-to-back games and will look to avoid losing three in a row against USL clubs for the first time since April 2024. Both clubs have seemingly been frustrated for results as of late.
What’s strange in the history of this series, we have still yet to see a draw all-time, Birmingham leads the all-time series seven wins to six—but Birmingham has only one victory in the previous four meetings of this matchup. The Legion have not won a visit to Indianapolis since July 2021—or when Space Jam: A New Legacy (2021) was the number one movie in theaters. This match to me strikes it as being under 2.5 goals, but let’s play it safer and go off of history of not having another draw after 90’ played.
Bet: Indy Eleven or Birmingham win, under 2.5 goals (3.25)
Pittsburgh v Westchester
1.40 - 4.20 - 6.50
Westchester finally did it last week, the clubs’s first win since March, and ironically did it in the same manner they have found themselves on the losing end of far too often, winning from behind this time. In the 12 Westchester games played since their March victory, 9 of those games are over 2.5 goals. However, high-scoring games is not usually an outcome of games involving the Bob Lilley-coached Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
In spite of Pittsburgh’s over 2.5 goals win last week, against Tampa Bay 2-1, April 19th was the last time they had a game go over 2.5 goals against a USL opponent prior to last week. The win over Tampa Bay was the first time since August 2024 that Pittsburgh had a match at Highmark that went over 2.5 goals as well. Also of note, neither one of these teams have earned a point in this competition group stage thus far. Something has to give.
The opening goal I think is going to be crucial as if Westchester score first, it could really be challenging for Pittsburgh to get multiple goals. I think it’s worth two separate, albeit somewhat antagonizing, wagers on this match (I would say Pittsburgh win or ties the 90’ scoreline, but it’s hardly worth the odds).
Bet 1: Westchester to score first (3.60)
Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals (2.62)
Parlay both: 10.00
Richmond v Lexington
3.20 - 3.40 - 2.00
A pair of clubs who have picked up recent wins, desperately needed wins for both teams, that should help restore some belief into their side. In the midweek, Richmond went on the road to Omaha and walked away with a 4-3 win, their first win since April (also against Omaha)—and Richmond’s first time scoring four goals in a win since March. Lexington meanwhile seemingly are figuring things out in recent weeks, having picked up back-to-back wins for the first time since they joined USLC and first time since August 2023—or when Barbie (2023) was number one in theaters.
When these two teams faced off in USL1, it was an even split across the five games, each team taking two wins apiece with a draw. But Lexington never won any of their games in Richmond, and only scored one goal in City Stadium during their time in USL1 (in May 2023). This may be one match where it is rather hard to truly pick a “favorite” to win, so let’s go with this game having plenty of goals (as Lexington matches have seen their previous four games played go over 2.5 goals).
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.75)
Tormenta v Charleston
3.70 - 3.60 - 1.75
One great thing about this group stage expansion to the Jagermeister Cup this season, is that its produced some very different performances from teams’ league campaigns, and that is most evident in the Charleston Battery. One of the top teams in the USLC, currently finds themselves in last of Group 6 of the competition, needing a win to even get a still slim chance at advancing. What’s been most shocking is the two previous defeats Charleston have taken in this competition have come against USL1 opposition and have yet another USL1 opponent this weekend.
Tormenta earned their first win since April this midweek with a result over Naples (a team who has beaten Charleston in this competition). Four of the last five Tormenta matches have gone over 2.5 goals, but it seems like the blueprint to follow to have a USL1 team beating Charleston is to keep it low-scoring (as both of the Battery’s previous two losses in this competition were by 1-0 scorelines).
I really think this match, if you are to wager on it, needs to be determined by the line-up Charleston sets. If they go strong, thinking they still have a chance to advance with a win, then Charleston to win should be an easy wager. But if they rotate thinking this competition is over for their chances, you might find a better edge on the odds by picking Tormenta win or tie. For the long upset of the weekend, let’s pick Tormenta win or tie, even though Charleston should win this match on paper.
Bet: Tormenta win or tie (1.90)
Louisville v North Carolina
1.61 - 3.50 - 4.75
I had a post about it on Wednesday night after Louisville had beaten Loudoun 4-1, but every single victory Louisville has had this season has seen the club score over 1.5 goals. Wednesday night’s game was the sixth time this season that Louisville had covered a -1.5 spread in a match too.
But it was North Carolina who defeated Louisville 2-1 at home in NCFC’s last game played, which in turn ended Louisville’s unbeaten start in the league. I am always interested to see how teams make adjustments when they have to rematch against each other so soon after their initial meeting. Like in May, Pittsburgh and Rhode Island played each other consecutively and ended up splitting the two games, each side getting a 1-0 win.
All of that being said, I think Louisville win this one, they won’t let the same outcome happen twice against NCFC, and Louisville has not lost at home since Rhode Island beat them in November 2024 in the playoffs. Let’s follow the trends of Louisville games they win, to generate multiple goals in this match as well.
Bet: Louisville to win, over 2.5 goals (2.40)
Tulsa v Chattanooga
1.42 - 3.80 - 6.25
A battle of two clubs that are seemingly flying under the radar in their respective leagues for how quality their start to the seasons have been. Though both sides here desperately need a win to bolster their chances of advancing as the table is quickly widening a gap.
Last week, I had backed Chattanooga to get a result against a Greenville team who I have been fading for much of the season, and the Red Wolves thus saw their six match unbeaten run reach a conclusion. Tulsa themselves had a pretty routine draw on paper, but hammering 29 shots against Phoenix only to walk away with a point is Boca Juniors against Auckland City levels of unluckiness.
That number of shots is encouraging for me to see Tulsa get a result in this one, but I would be weary of this game going over 2.5 goals if Tulsa get the win.
Bet: Tulsa to win (1.42)
Texoma v Phoenix
3.70 - 3.60 - 1.75
After what had been a horrid start to the season on the pitch, Texoma has seemingly put together a competitive side in recent weeks, as they have gone unbeaten in their previous six games. Another notable statline from this Texoma team is how frequently they have been in high-scoring affairs—8 of their 13 games against USL opposition have gone over 2.5 goals. They welcome a Phoenix Rising team fresh off a 1-4 defeat against Charleston last week, ending their own six match unbeaten streak against USL clubs.
One hallmark I have noticed about this Phoenix team is that they too have the likelihood of getting dragged into high-scoring matches, as 10 of their 17 games played this year against USL clubs have gone over 2.5 goals. A win for either club could see their chances of advancing look a lot better after this weekend, and I would not be surprised to see this game made into a high-scoring contest. I lean the way of Phoenix getting the result, and with these odds, in 90’, but with how Texoma have been playing, let’s add on over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Phoenix win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (2.25)
New Mexico v Colorado Springs
2.00 - 3.30 - 3.10
New Mexico have not lost to Colorado Springs since April 2023, four matches unbeaten since that defeat. The start to the season for the USLC reigning champions has not fully gone to plan, as they find themselves tenth in the West, but their Jagermeister Cup games have been better and a win this weekend would put them right back in the mix for advancing. The Switchbacks had lost in the midweek to San Antonio, and will be looking to avoid losing three in a row for the first time since April 2024.
All that being said, I still really like what New Mexico have been doing this season and I think they get the result in this match and let’s go for over 2.5 goals (something that has hit in seven of the last eight New Mexico matches).
Bet: New Mexico win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.80)
San Antonio v Omaha
2.10 - 3.90 - 2.80
A rematch of an Open Cup third round match from earlier this season, which saw Omaha win 1-0 in a game largely possession-controlled by San Antonio. But this match heads to San Antonio hosting for the Jagermeister Cup and Omaha have looked rather ordinary this season, especially of late as in their previous six games played, they have lost two consecutive games, on two separate occasions. I think I am starting to locate my panic button on Omaha. San Antonio in the midweek gave a massive boost to their chances of advancing with a win over Colorado Springs, 2-0, to catapult them to the top of the Group 1 table. A win tomorrow night should make their likelihood of advancing to the knockouts all but certain.
I am backing the hosts to get a win in this match. Having yet to concede a goal in their Jagermeister Cup games thus far, and Omaha looking in rough form, I think San Antonio wins this one in regulation—and Omaha loses three games in a row for the first time since September 2020, or when Tenet (2020) was in theaters.
Bet: San Antonio to win (2.10)
Oakland v Monterey Bay
1.85 - 3.50 - 3.60
It was a first win of the Benny Feilhaber era for Oakland last week, as they snatched a 1-0 victory away at Birmingham. Monterey Bay meanwhile had a 1-2 defeat at home for their previous match, against El Paso. Derby games are really surefire ways for a manager to really endear themselves to a new fanbase, and if Feilhaber can engineer a victory against a fellow California club, it could go a long way to turning around this Roots season.
However, with Monterey Bay having won two Jagermeister Cup matches from two played—one of seven clubs to have done so thus far with one of the others, Sacramento, also in their group—they might be more keen to make the most of this opportunity to advance. Given these mismatched odds, I would have Monterey Bay winning this match in 90’.
Bet: Monterey Bay to win in 90’ (3.60)
Orange County v Sacramento
3.80 - 3.50 - 1.85
One of the more lopsided fixtures on paper of the weekend, as Group 1 leaders, Sacramento, make the trip to Orange County, one of only five clubs left in the group stage without a point. With Sacramento leading the group on six points, a win can all but clinch their spot in the knockouts. In what will be the 30th match of these 2 clubs’ stories history in meeting, it is an even split of 11 wins each and 7 draws.
But a trip to Orange County is not so straightforward for the Republic. Sacramento have only won one of their last seven games played at OC (April 2024 being the most recent). Orange County however, in spite of winning their most recent meeting in this ground on April 12th, have not won consecutive home games against Republic ever in the history of this series.
In spite of their previous four games played going under 2.5 goals for Sacramento, I think this fixture gets into another high-scoring affair, especially since Orange County’s previous five games played have all been over 2.5 goals. Though Orange County to win or tie at 1.83 odds is worth considering.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.70)
Las Vegas v Spokane
2.55 - 3.20 - 2.55
Spokane was many’s pre-tournament dark horse out of USL1 candidates, and yet, unless they get a win in regulation this weekend, their chances of advancing out of the group are looking increasingly slim. But, getting a match against a Las Vegas Lights team still figuring things out under an interim boss might be the fixture they need to jump start their group stage campaign.
But it’s been Las Vegas having earned not just back-to-back wins for the first time since since May, it’s all their first back-to-back clean sheets since then as well. Have the Lights figured this out since the manager change, or will the best team in USL1 this season get back into the hunt for advancing out of Group 1? Picking Spokane to win this one in regulation.
Bet: Spokane to win in 90’ (2.55)
USL1
AV Alta v Naples
2.45 - 3.20 - 2.75
Let’s not forget the lone league match being played this weekend as AV Alta hosts Naples. Naples midweek had a tough defeat against Tormenta, 1-2 away, in a game where they seemed to be in control of the outcome, until an own goal and then later a red card cost them three points on the road. AV Alta meanwhile has quietly not lost a match in any of their previous seven games played (but have only earned two wins). Four of those previous seven games have been over 2.5 goals, including both wins.
I am backing the hosts in this one to get a result as Naples enter this match with no wins away from home since April 5th (five road matches since then). To Naples’ credit, they have scored in each of those five road matches (and have not been shut out in any match since April 19th), so perhaps this game will have some goals to it, but let’s play things safe and go for the hosts to get a result.
Bet: AV Alta win or tie (1.40)
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Louisville, Tulsa ML (2.29)
New Mexico, Spokane ML (5.20)
San Antonio ML, Madison v Knoxville Draw (6.51)
Goals Parlay:
Loudoun v Charlotte and Louisville v North Carolina both over 2.5 goals (3.02)
Richmond v Lexington over 2.5 goals, Pittsburgh v Westchester under 2.5 goals (4.59)
Underdog Parlay:
Charlotte win or tie, Detroit win or tie, Monterey Bay win or tie (5.38)
Portland win or tie, Tormenta win or tie, Orange County win or tie (7.87)
Kaylor Hodges™ No-Draws After 90’ Parlay: 33.31
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
MLS:
Orlando v Cincinnati and San Jose v LA Galaxy each BTTS (2.14)
LAFC v Vancouver BTTS, NYCFC win or tie v Montreal (2.38)
Chicago v Charlotte: BTTS, over 2.5 goals, Cuypers goal or assist anytime (2.40)
San Diego ML v Dallas (2.10)
Gold Cup:
Mexico, Canada, USA ML (3.03)
Other Sports:
Friday MLB:
Rays ML v Orioles (1.74)
Ryan Pepiot (TB) over 6.5 strikeouts (2.28)
Twins at Tigers Over 8.5 runs (1.83)
Mariners at Rangers Under 7.0 runs (1.95)
Mets -1.5 at Pirates (2.20)
Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases (2.10)
Padres at Reds:
Padres ML, Elly de la Cruz 1+ batter strikeout (2.15)
Formula 1, Austrian Grand Prix:
Qualifying
Bortoleto to beat Hulkenberg h2h (1.83)
Norris to beat Piastri h2h (1.83)
Tsunoda to beat Hadjar h2h (2.00)
Stroll to win a group of himself, Bortoleto, Hulkenberg, and Lawson (3.75)
Race - picks made pre-qualifying
McLaren both cars podium finish (1.53)
Under 18.5 classified drivers (1.80)
Hadjar points finish (1.90)
Norris to win (2.87)
Also apparently the F1 (2025) movie is getting good reviews so I’m sure I will see that at some point.
NASCAR, Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart (yes, that’s the real name) - Echopark Speedway (previously Atlanta Speedway)
Super wide open race as NASCAR starts their run of races on TNT. It also marks the start of the NASCAR In-Season Challenge, a 32-driver head to head bracket culminating in a winner of $1 million. The lowest odds to win, as of right now, is Ryan Blaney at 9.00 (in fact the three Penske drivers are the top three favorites to win outright). Chase Elliott is also coming to his home track where he always tends to drive rather well here. This particular Atlanta race, the second one held of the season, has not been won by a Toyota since its return in 2021. This track races like a superspeedway despite its layout and configuration, so it’s one of the best races to watch on the calendar.
And it is Saturday night, under the lights and alongside all the Jagermeister Cup action!
Chase Elliott to finish top ten (1.80)
Christopher Bell to finish top ten (1.80)
William Byron to finish top five (3.50)
Chevrolet winning manufacturer (2.30) - Chevy has won three of the previous four runnings of this particular race.
Joey Logano top Ford driver (4.50)
Ross Chastain to beat Bubba Wallace h2h (1.83)
Kyle Larson to beat Brad Keselowski h2h (2.00)
And here is my NASCAR In-Season Challenge full bracket:
*Note, these are all head-to-head matchups each week, so it can be extremely volatile. I would not wagers futures on this tournament, and just take things week by week. This ESPN article helped break things down into percentage likelihood to advance to each round as well.
Final Thoughts
This article was shared with me earlier this morning, but it was an absolutely delightful read and of course, since it involves my first name of “Ryan”, I had to call attention to it: “Ryans, Rockies and a weird, wonderful world-record attempt". At a June 20th Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks game, there was an attempt at a world-record gathering of people named “Ryan” (as the Rockies have four players on their team this year named ‘Ryan’ and the Diamondbacks had one of their own). The entire read was very funny I wanted to share it with a wider audience. Perhaps this prompts a future USL article to find what club have the most players in their squad who all share the same first name.
I have been excitedly seeing the unveiling of each new feature and deep dive review for the new College Football 26 video game, set to release on July 10. Those features and reviews have been unveiled on the EA Sports College Football YouTube channel, as well as showing off the top rated teams for the game. If there would be interest, I can write an article detailing the best teams or save ideas to use in Dynasty mode this year!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.