May 4th, USL Odds
May the Fourth be with you and your bets.
Hello There! General Kenobi. USL Championship had a wild matchweek filled with goals as nine of the games last week saw over 2.5 goals scored in them and not a single draw among them. Meanwhile, USL1 returns to league play as the Jagermeister Cup matches of last week had a resounding start to the competition, with some shock results such as Fuego picking up a win on penalties over Spokane and a nine-man Lexington team beating Madison at the last minute.
It’s Star Wars Day this weekend and in the lead up to the USL matches in the evening, a day spent binge-watching the movies is a day well-spent. Here is my watch order of the best Disney era Star Wars movie, then the Original Trilogy and Prequels:
Rogue One, A New Hope (IV), Empire Strikes Back (V), The Phantom Menace (I), Attack of the Clones (II), Revenge of the Sith (III), Revenge of the Sith (III), Revenge of the Sith (III), Return of the Jedi (VI)
(There was no typo in that watch order).
As always, make all bets at your own risk. Do not wager any amount of money that you cannot afford to lose. All bets listed below are possible options to bet on and should be considered at your own judgement.
All odds are as of Bet365 on Friday, May 3rd, 2024.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Rhode Island v Phoenix to win double chance and BTTS (2.50), Charleston to win, over 2 total goals in match (2.25), Over 2.5 goals for Indy Eleven v North Carolina FC (1.90), Louisville to win by 2 or more goals (2.25), and my Tottenham v Arsenal parlay (3.00) featured in my non-USL bets for the weekend.
Elo Ratings for USL Championship and USL1
USL Championship
Memphis v Tampa Bay
2.75 - 3.40 - 2.20
Both sides picked up 3-0 victories last week, Memphis maybe more surprisingly so than Tampa Bay. 901 FC had not scored three goals in match since October 2023. These two clubs were involved in a pair of exciting matches last season, which saw Memphis win both, 3-2 at home (September 6th) and 4-2 away (September 23rd). That match on September 23rd was actually the last time the Rowdies lost a match away from home, as Tampa Bay are one of two unbeaten teams left in the East.
Bet: Tampa Bay to score in the both halves (3.25)
Charleston v Hartford
1.25 - 5.50 - 9.00
Charleston are off the back of a 6-0 drubbing against Las Vegas, while Hartford was on the unwanted end of a 0-6 loss against Louisville last week. A match against an in form Charleston team cannot come for a less ideal time for Hartford, who seem likely to be dragged into another goals heavy match.
Bet: Battery to win, over 2 total goals scored, Charleston to lead at halftime and fulltime (2.10)
Loudoun v Detroit
2.40 - 3.60 - 2.50
Despite their loss last weekend at the hands of a rejuvenated Riverhounds team, I still believe in this Detroit City project this season and think they are a very talented squad. Detroit, in their five meetings all-time versus Loudoun, has never lost to them, posting a four wins and one draw record in that time. Detroit’s last two visits to Loudoun were 3-0 (2023) and 4-0 (2022) victories.
Bet: Detroit to win, over 1 total goal scored (3.40)
North Carolina v Rhode Island
1.90 - 3.25 - 3.50
We have seen five nil-nil results in the league thus far this season, and these two clubs have been involved in three of them. With both teams rooted at the bottom of the Eastern Conference right now, finding a win for this match would be a massive step forward for either team. Only Birmingham and Pittsburgh have scored fewer goals than these two sides at the moment that this could be a very low-scoring affair.
Bet: Draw, Under 3 goals (4.50)
Special bet for NCFC v RIFC: 0-0 final score is 10.00
Pittsburgh v Miami FC
1.44 - 4.33 - 5.25
Last week saw wins for both of these teams—and I was only surprised about one of those results. Pittsburgh, in a return to form result, defeated Detroit City at home while Miami manufactured a shock win over San Antonio. However, I feel like Pittsburgh, after a slow start, has begun to find its footing on the year—unbeaten in their last four games with three shutouts in that time—and should get the result at Highmark this weekend.
Bet: Pittsburgh win to nil (2.25)
Birmingham v Tulsa
1.85 - 3.60 - 3.30
Birmingham and Tulsa have had starts to the season that represent the perfect highs and lows of being midtable clubs. Each side have notched wins over sides they should be beating—Birmingham over Miami and Tulsa over El Paso—while also being handed some tough losses—Birmingham losing to Louisville 0-5 and Tulsa losing 1-4 to Charleston. As both teams gear up for an Open Cup match next week, this match might be as close to a toss up to predict as any game this weekend.
Bet: BTTS (1.61)
San Antonio v Oakland
1.57 - 3.60 - 5.00
The story of this matchup occurred earlier this week as Oakland made the decision to part ways with manager and technical director Noah Delgado, with assistant coach Gavin Glinton taking over as boss in the interim. Oakland obviously had a less than ideal start to the season, winning just two of their first eight games, and are currently tied for the worst goal differential in the West.
There was four clubs last season who either sacked or had agreed to a mutual separation to their manager in season—Orange County, New Mexico, Miami FC and Hartford (not counting Tampa Bay here who saw Neill Collins move to Barnsley FC in July). In the two games that followed that managerial change for each club, none of them were able to find a win in that time. This is to illustrate that a new manager bounce may give enticing odds to bet, it did not work out immediately last season. San Antonio’s form has been up and down—just two wins in their last five—but should still see off a result here.
Bet: San Antonio to win or tie double chance, BTTS (2.00)
Colorado Springs v El Paso
1.80 - 3.60 - 3.60
Colorado Spring’s win last week has left this match that I was going dub “El Crapico” with just one team winless in it, rather than two. El Paso enters this match against a fellow cellar dweller in basically, must win territory. Luckily for Locomotive, they have 7 wins all-time against Colorado Springs in 15 matches (with the Switchbacks only having 2 wins in the series) and are 7 matches unbeaten away at Colorado Springs. An El Paso result is likely if Saturday’s match follows historical trends. The last three games played in Colorado Springs have seen both teams find the back of the net, on a combined 15 goals scored.
Bet: Over 2 goals, BTTS (2.37)
Monterey Bay v Indy Eleven
1.95 - 3.50 - 3.10
I’ve sensed a trend this week in teams that I had been previously quite high on, suffering a defeat in the matchweek, and Monterey Bay was no exception as they took a loss against Orange County. Indy Eleven, off the back of an extremely stressful news week for the club, had a very spirited display winning at home against North Carolina. Both of the previous two games between these clubs, oddly, had five goals scored in it (a 3-2 win for Monterey in 2023 and a 5-0 win for Monterey in 2022). Since joining USL, Indy Eleven have not won a match further west than El Paso (sorry Phil), and given that Indy are conceding on average, 2.12 goals a match this year, it’s hard to see them succeeding in this match.
Bet: Monterey Bay to win, scoring in both halves(3.60)
Las Vegas v New Mexico
2.70 - 3.60 - 2.20
Both sides look to regain their form after uncharacteristically bad losses relative to my expectations for the club. New Mexico’s 0-3 defeat to Tampa Bay last week ended a run of three wins in the league that the club was on and was the second time this season they were held scoreless. Las Vegas meanwhile gave up six goals in a match for the first time since September 2022. Both games last season were chaotic scoring draws, 2-2 in July and 3-3 in August. I believe we have another goals fest on our hands for this weekend’s match.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.80)
Phoenix v Sacramento
3.00 - 3.20 - 2.15
A rematch of last season’s Western Conference final that saw Phoenix emerge victorious en-route to their eventual league title. Sacramento are the last unbeaten team in the Western Conference, but have not won a match in Phoenix since 2018 (three draws and three losses in that time). This is a tough place to go into for Republic to get a result, and while they have only conceded 0.62 goals on average per match this year, Phoenix to win or tie might be a trendy upset pick.
Bet: Phoenix to win or tie double chance, over 2 total goals (3.50)
USL1
Some matches did not have odds published as of the time of publishing this article.
Richmond v One Knoxville
2.75 - 3.25 - 2.25
Both of these games ended 2-2 last season. In all competitive matches, the Kickers have only kept one clean sheet all season, in the US Open Cup v Loudoun. With One Knoxville producing goals in six of their seven matches played this season across all competitions. Each team picked up results in the first Jagermeister Cup games last weekend too.
Bet: One Knoxville to tie or win, over 3 goals (4.00)
Central Valley Fuego v Charlotte
3.50 - 3.25 - 1.90
Charlotte has won every visit they have made to Central Valley Fuego since 2022. Fuego, while picking up a penalties victory against Spokane in the cup last weekend, are still without a win in regulation since March 9th.
Bet: Charlotte to win 2-1 (10.00)
Madison v Greenville
Madison might still be in unbeaten to start the USL1 league season, but that was a real weird performance from the Flamingos in the cup last week, losing to a Lexington side down to nine players conceding the goal on 90+4’. Madison will get a chance to rebound at home against Greenville, a team who has not won at Madison since 2019. These games have historically been cagey affairs—three of the first four meetings of this series were 0-0 results—as we have seen eight of the games feature a clean sheet.
Bet: Draw
Omaha v South Georgia Tormenta
Union Omaha has had Tormenta’s number in this series. Omaha are an unbeaten seven wins and three draws against Tormenta all-time, and have won the last three meetings. When playing at home against Tormenta, Omaha have scored first on each occasion. Omaha on a double matchweek may have them with some tired legs, but I still expect the hosts on Saturday to start the match out hot.
Bet: Omaha to win or tie, over 2 goals total
Parlays
Straight three leg options:
Early Bird parlay: Tampa Bay, Charleston and Detroit all to win (6.87)
Mid-Evening parlay: Pittsburgh, San Antonio, Colorado Springs all to win (4.08)
Late Evening Visitors parlay: Indy Eleven, New Mexico United, Sacramento all to win (14.66)
Four leg round robin bet x2:
Tampa Bay, Charleston, Detroit, Pittsburgh all to win (bet $6 to win $19.95)
All matches over 2.5 goals, Memphis v Tampa Bay, Charleston v Hartford, San Antonio v Oakland, Monterey Bay v Indy Eleven (bet $6 to win $16.17)
Four leg parlay:
Pittsburgh, Charleston, Tampa Bay, San Antonio all to win (6.24)
All visitors parlay: Sacramento, New Mexico, Detroit, Tampa Bay all to win (26.01)
Five leg or more parlay:
Eastern Conference: Birmingham, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Charleston, Tampa Bay all to win (18.37)
San Antonio, Colorado Springs, Monterey Bay, New Mexico, Sacramento all to win (26.08)
All ten of those teams above winning (479.30)
Non-USL Bets for the Weekend
Bet 1: Hull City to beat Plymouth Argyle, BTTS (3.40)
Bet 2: Six Leg Premier League parlay: Arsenal, Newcastle, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool all to win (14.35)
Bet 3: Liverpool v Tottenham: Liverpool win to nil, Liverpool to score in both halves, over 8 total corners, Salah to score anytime, over 16.5 shots for Liverpool (12.00)
Long term bets: Newcastle to finish top five (21.00), Burnley to avoid relegation (5.50)
Find me on Twitter @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.