April 27th, USL Odds
A dawn of a new cup competition for USL1, along with 12 USL Championship matches on the weekend.
The league is off to a flying start as reach the final weekend of April. This weekend also features the beginning of the USL Jagermeister Cup in USL1 too. An intriguing slate of games—Pittsburgh v Detroit, Orange County v Monterey Bay and a rivalry renewed in Birmingham v Memphis—all highlight the weekend. This week’s article also has some fun options at parlays included in it as well! Read on below!
Make any bets at your own risk and do not wager any amount of money you are not comfortable to lose. Like usual, these bets should be seen as options for the weekend, not ironclad guarantees.
Odds are as of Friday, 26 April 2024 from Bet365
Previous Week Recap:
The bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Charleston to win and score over 2 goals (3.75), Monterey Bay to win (3.40), Detroit/Charleston/Louisville all to win (6.74)
Elo Ratings for USL Championship and USL1
*Note, I will not factor in Jagermeister Cup matches into the Elo ratings calculations you see on a weekly basis, as to accurately depict a club’s regular season results only. Perhaps in subsequent seasons I will have a cup adjusted Elo rating, but for a first year of the tournament, I want to see how teams approach the competition first.
USL Championship
Rhode Island v Phoenix Rising
2.45 - 3.20 - 2.50
Rhode Island picked up their first win in club history as they traveled to Las Vegas last week and left with a 2-1 win. RIFC have been a tricky side to beat this year, evident by their four draws in six games to open the season. However, Phoenix seem like the inverse of RIFC, having picked up just one draw to open the season. I expect both teams to find the back of the net in this match, enough so that the match avoids a tie.
Bet: Rhode Island or Phoenix to win double chance, BTTS (2.50)
Charleston v Las Vegas
1.53 - 4.00 - 4.75
Charleston have not lost a regular season home match to a Western Conference opponent since August 2023—a 0-1 loss to Oakland. Patriots Point is a fortress to come into as a visiting team, and I think Saturday afternoon’s match will be another display of that home field advantage for the Battery. Charleston have been scoring goals for fun this season as the league’s leading scorers, averaging 2.25 goals per match.
Bet: Charleston to win, over 2 total goals scored in the match (2.25)
Indy Eleven v North Carolina FC
2.00 - 3.40 - 3.10
Both of these teams are conceding copious amount of goals this year—Indy Eleven having given up the most goals in the league thus far (16). North Carolina has kept one clean sheet all season, at home against Charleston, but have conceded double digit goals through seven games already. This match could be one filled with mistakes by both sides and the ball in the back of the net on multiple times because of it.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.90)
Miami FC v San Antonio FC
4.00 - 3.80 - 1.65
This Miami team is bad. Last week’s defeat to Birmingham was the fourth consecutive defeat in the league, and their sixth match without a win. Though the side had scored in four of those six winless games, I just cannot see Miami putting the pieces together against San Antonio.
Bet: San Antonio to win 2-0 (8.50)
Pittsburgh v Detroit City
2.05 - 3.50 - 3.00
Detroit returns to the sight of their triumph in the first round of last season’s USL playoffs. Detroit has been the hottest team in the Eastern Conference to start the year, with five consecutive wins and multiple goals scored in four of those matches. Pittsburgh shook off a lot of early season fear as they won 3-1 against the reigning league champions last week. I expect this match to be a rather close affair at Highmark, though I lean Detroit to win or tie double chance, but certainly a low-scoring match.
Bet: Detroit to win or tie double change, over 2 total goals (4.33)
Birmingham v Memphis 901
2.15 - 3.50 - 2.70
On 15 all-time meetings of the Southern Harm Derby, there have been 8 games that featured over 2.5 goals scored. Birmingham are on a run of five matches unbeaten against Memphis all-time in this series, but only two shutouts in that time. I worry where the goals are going to come from with Memphis—having scored just 0.83 on average per match this year. Yet, rivalry games are prone to different mentalities than other matches.
Bet: Birmingham to win, BTTS (4.50)
Louisville v Hartford
1.53 - 4.00 - 5.00
In this matchup historically, Louisville are unbeaten against Hartford all-time, five wins and two draws. However, the 2023 season saw Louisville drop points against Hartford for the first time ever, with a pair of two aforementioned draws. That being said, this Louisville is still a different level versus where they were last season, having won by two or more goals on three occasions this season.
Bet: Louisville to win by 2 or more goals (2.25)
Tampa Bay v New Mexico
1.60 - 3.75 - 4.50
This might be one of the underrated matches of the weekend. New Mexico just capped off a massive road win over North Carolina last week with a Sergio Rivas winner at 90+1’ on top of a Greg Hurst brace. Tampa Bay meanwhile remains one of the last four unbeaten teams left in the league, scoring multiple goals in three of their five games played this season. Also of note, the last four games for both clubs saw over 5 corners combined in those games.
Bet: New Mexico to win or tie double chance, BTTS, over 3 total goals in the match (6.50)
El Paso v Tulsa
1.90- 3.40 - 3.40
Let the record show that El Paso Locomotive has never lost to FC Tulsa. While this could be jinxing the side, I want to believe that their morale boosting 1-1 draw against Tampa Bay last week will spur on this team to jumpstart their season. Particularly against an FC Tulsa side conceded on average, 2 goals a match this season. Dating back to last season, FC Tulsa has not kept a clean sheet in their last 9 games. Not to mention, of the six all-time meetings of these two teams, five of those games saw over 2.5 goals scored—and El Paso has yet to be held under 2 goals in this series in those matches all-time.
Bet: El Paso to win, at least 2 total goals scored (3.00)
Oakland v Colorado Springs
2.05 - 3.30 - 3.10
Colorado Springs finally stopped the bleeding of their campaign’s start, getting a draw on a snowy match highlighted by a red card to the Switchbacks, last time out. Oakland meanwhile has been struggling for form themselves, with just one win in the league in their last six matches. Oddly, Colorado Springs have won every meeting between these teams when played in Oakland, but this match could see both sides cancelling each other out.
Bet: Draw (3.30)
Orange County v Monterey Bay
2.05 - 3.20 - 3.10
I was actually surprised to see Monterey Bay with the odds that they were given. Underdogs was likely a given with them away from home, but I find these odds—3.20 to win—quite enticing for a team who has won three in a row against an Orange County side who is averaging just two shots on target per game over their last three games.
Bet: Monterey Bay to win (3.20)
Sacramento v Loudoun
1.33 - 4.20 - 7.50
In the previous two meetings of Sacramento and Loudoun, it has been dominating wins for the Republic. A 3-1 win in 2023 and a 4-0 thrashing in 2022 both going the way of Sacramento. While I like what Loudoun are doing this season, Sacramento are still one of the perennial Western Conference favorites, it is hard to see Loudoun getting a result.
Bet: Sacramento to score over 2 goals and win to nil (4.20)
USL1 - USL Jagermeister Cup
Not every match had odds published at the time of writing this article. Please take my bolded selection below as the team I have picked to win (remember, these Cup matches will go to a penalty shootout if drawn at 90’).
Spokane v Central Valley Fuego
1.80 - 3.60 - 3.60
Bet: Spokane halftime-fulltime result (2.75)
Greenville v Richmond
South Georgia Tormenta v Charlotte
Chattanooga v One Knoxville
2.55 - 3.50 - 2.30
Lexington v Madison
Parlays
Special Birmingham Parlay:
Birmingham City and Birmingham Legion both to win this weekend (6.88)
Straight three leg options:
Charleston, San Antonio and Louisville all to win (3.87)
Sacramento and Monterey Bay to win, Oakland v Colorado Springs draw (13.64)
Birmingham, New Mexico and El Paso all to win (18.47)
Indy Eleven v North Carolina, Pittsburgh v Detroit, Orange County v Monterey Bay all to draw (38.08)
Four leg round robin bet x2:
Charleston v Las Vegas, Louisville v Hartford, Tampa Bay v New Mexico, Miami v San Antonio all over 2.5 goals (bet $6 to win maximum of $16.49)
Indy Eleven v North Carolina, Pittsburgh v Detroit, Birmingham v Memphis, Orange County v Monterey Bay all over 2.5 goals (bet $6 to win $23.79)
Five leg or more long shot parlay:
Charleston, San Antonio, Birmingham, Louisville, Sacramento all to win (11.12)
Detroit, Louisville, Tampa Bay, El Paso, Sacramento all to win (18.73)
Sacramento v Loudoun, Orange County v Monterey Bay, Louisville v Hartford, Indy Eleven v North Carolina, Charleston v Las Vegas, Tampa Bay v New Mexico all over 2.5 goals (30.66)
Non-USL Bets for the Weekend
Bet 1: Tottenham v Arsenal: Over 2 total goals, BTTS, Arsenal to win or tie, Tottenham over 6.5 shots, over 8 total corners (3.00)
Bet 2: Weekend Premier League parlay | Liverpool over West Ham, Manchester United over Burnley, Newcastle over Sheffield United, Aston Villa over Chelsea, Manchester City over Nottingham Forest (7.57)
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