USL Odds, October 5
We've crowned a Jagermeister Champion last week, but now we turn our attention to the numerous playoff positions still up for grabs in the USLC and USL1.
Congratulations to Northern Colorado Hailstorm on their Jagermeister Cup triumph last Saturday to award the first silverware of this USL1 season. It was a thrilling final decided on penalties and leads us into a thrilling final few weeks of the 2024 regular seasons for both USL1 and USLC. The USL Super League have a full slate of games on Sunday—and just unveiled their Spring 2025 schedules as well!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, October 4.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Indy Eleven to win and match over 2.5 goals (1.72), Louisville to win BTTS (3.20), Rhode Island to win or tie and over 1.5 goals (1.72), Detroit win to nil (4.33), Las Vegas over 0.5 goals and match over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Louisville v Memphis, Colorado Springs v Loudoun, Phoenix v Las Vegas all BTTS (5.50), El Paso v North Carolina and Pittsburgh v Birmingham both under 2.5 goals, Indy Eleven v Miami over 2.5 goals (5.29)
Newcastle win or tie v Manchester City (2.30), Marshall to cover -4 (1.90), Eastern Michigan to cover -14 (1.90), Bengals to cover -4.5 (1.90), Marvin Harrison Jr anytime TD (2.05), David Montgomery anytime TD (1.90)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Phoenix v Monterey Bay
1.61 - 4.33 - 3.80
Last week, I had stated that Monterey Bay had seen their goalless run reach 1% of Ninth President’s William Henry Harrison entire presidency. Entering this week, Monterey Bay have now gone six games without a goal, 11 games without a win. It’s been 9 hours and 2 minutes since Monterey Bay last scored—1.2% of Harrison’s presidency, or enough time for the International Space Station to circumnavigate the globe 6 times. Phoenix on the other hand enter this match with just one win from four games played. From an earlier USL Show episode, I recall having picked Phoenix to be a playoff team this year, likely no higher than 7th, and with Monterey Bay still a mess, I am just backing Phoenix to win.
Bet: Phoenix to win (1.61)
(Phoenix win to nil is 2.62)
Charleston v Detroit
1.48 - 3.90 - 5.75
Detroit will look extend their current unbeaten run to a season high six games if they can pick up a result against a Charleston team still chasing Louisville for the top spot in the East. Detroit can take a crucial step towards confirming that Keyworth is hosting a home playoff game with a victory this weekend in South Carolina. This has actually been a series largely controlled by Detroit historically, who have posted a record of 3-1-1 against the Battery. Charleston have only scored one goal in this fixture’s history as quite frequently this series ends in matches of “win to nil” and not having BTTS. Detroit’s defense has been stellar in recent weeks but Charleston has seen their offense come alive in the last month. Should make for a fascinating contest.
Bet: Charleston to win, Detroit under 1.5 goals scored (1.57)
Hartford v Loudoun
2.25 - 3.70 - 2.50
Is this the most intriguing fixture of the weekend? A heated Eastern Conference battle between the side currently holding the 8th and final playoff spot, Loudoun, and the hosts, Hartford, who enter this match unbeaten in their last seven games and just one defeat in their last eleven played. Hartford is getting hot at just the right time as they continue their hunt towards the playoffs. Hartford have gone the last 7 hours and 9 minutes since they last conceded a goal. With a playoff spot very much in play, I expect the hosts will be up for extending their unbeaten run with this match.
Also, the goal differences of these two teams is hilarious for how close they are in the table (Loudoun at +7, Hartford at -12).
Bet: Hartford to win, over 1.5 goals (2.87)
Indy Eleven v Louisville
3.40 - 3.50 - 1.90
It is the LIPAFC matchday! Both teams are off the back of a routine win over Miami in their last match—Indy Elven 4-0 and Louisville 3-0. Louisville have won the last three meetings of this rivalry, outscoring Indy Eleven 8-3 in that time. Louisville can just about clinch the East #1 seed and players shield with a win in this match, and I think with that on the line, it’s hard to bet against Louisville in this one. Indy Eleven will put up a fight given that they are still pursuing a home playoff game, but Louisville prevails.
Bet: Louisville win and over 2.5 total goals (2.87)
Miami v Pittsburgh
9.50 - 4.33 - 1.28
Weirdly, this series has been closer than one would anticipate it to be. Pittsburgh leads the all-time series 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. They are unbeaten in their last three trips to South Beach as well. It has been 492’ since Miami last scored a goal during the span of a five match winless run in that time. That was 8 hours and 12 minutes ago—or the length of time to listen to 70% of the Beatles entire discography. Pittsburgh should prevail but this likely is one match that has just one or two goals in it.
Bet: Pittsburgh to win and under 2.5 goals (3.25)
Rhode Island v Tampa Bay
2.10 - 4.10 - 2.55
Tampa Bay had their match against Hartford postponed last week due to Hurricane Helene. The Rowdies have now gone 14 days tomorrow since their last match played, off the back of three defeats in their four most recent games played. A trip to Rhode Island with a match away at Louisville looming, represents a tricky two game slate for Tampa Bay. Rhode Island meanwhile are looking to string together three consecutive wins for just the second time in the league this season. Both clubs have conceded goals in their last four games, with each team having their fair share of those games go over 2.5 goals as well.
Bet: BTTS and over 2.5 goals (2.05)
Memphis v Oakland
1.50 - 3.90 - 5.00
Both of these sides took defeats last week, which saw each drop further back in the race for hosting a home playoff game in the West. Oakland enter this match on the league’s second to worst form over the previous five games, one win and four defeats. It’s been 374’ since the Roots last scored—you could watch my three favorite Harrison Ford performances of Empire Strikes Back (1980), Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981), and Blade Runner (1982) in 356’, also what a three year run Ford was on for those movies all back to back to back. Memphis are off the back of a 2-0 goal lead blown to lose 4-2 against Louisville from last week. In this fixture, the home team has never lost this match and we’ve seen each of the three previous games all end BTTS.
Bet: Memphis to win and Memphis to score over 1.5 goals (1.83)
San Antonio v Sacramento
3.25 - 3.30 - 1.95
Now that was a Sacramento performance we had been waiting on, as the Republic last week beat the Western Conference leaders 4-0 at home, reigniting their case for the #2 seed in the conference. Sacramento had not scored four goals in a home match since the Open Cup this year and their 4-3 win over San Jose, in USLC play, it was July 26th, 2023 against Phoenix. San Antonio have lost two in a row entering this game and were outscored 7-1 in that time. Sacramento are in better form and should win this one.
Bet: Sacramento to win, over 2.5 goals (3.60)
Tulsa v El Paso
2.05 - 3.75 - 2.75
El Paso, not technically eliminated just yet, have gone unbeaten in five of their last six games and picked up just their second home victory of the year last week. Locomotive face their penultimate road game of the regular season this week with a chance to play spoiler for Tulsa’s playoff chances. Tulsa picked up a massive 1-0 road victory away at Oakland last week to move just one point behind the playoff cutline—it was their first win in over a month. Tulsa have four of their final matches at home, starting with this game, but with El Paso finding their form as of late, a win is not as straightforward for the Oklahoma club.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.80)
Las Vegas v Orange County
2.48 - 4.50 - 4.75
A late Saturday night fixture to close out the day in a match that has never been short on goals—the last four have seen not only BTTS, but three were over 3.5 goals. Las Vegas have not lost at home since May 4th, a run of 10 consecutive games unbeaten at Cashman Field. It’s brought Las Vegas up to fourth in the table and the crucial final home playoff spot in the West, just one point behind second place Sacramento mind you. Orange County has put together a nice three match unbeaten run over the previous three weeks, having gone 273’ since they last conceded a goal. It’s a contest that’s always had goals in it and usually both teams find the back of net—four of Las Vegas’ last five games have seen BTTS.
Bet: Las Vegas win or tie, BTTS, Over 2 goals (2.62)
Birmingham v North Carolina
2.30 - 4.00 - 2.30
The lone Sunday afternoon match of the weekend. North Carolina has played six matches this year outside of Saturday and have only lost once (a 5-2 defeat against Charleston on a Friday). Birmingham embark on these final two regular season home games over the next two weeks—the middle of a stretch of four consecutive home games not held on a Saturday, Legion have already won their previous two home games. We should have a better playoff picture for current seventh place Legion come Sunday—particularly after the Hartford v Loudoun match—but I think Birmingham win this match and remain in the picture for possibly hosting a home playoff game.
Bet: Birmingham to win (2.30)
USL1
Charlotte v Madison
3.00 - 3.20 - 2.20
A rematch of one of the Jagermeister Cup semifinals kicks off this weekend’s USL1 action. Madison have actually gone unbeaten for the last three games against Charlotte, over a third of the all-time meetings between these two clubs. Charlotte have actually faltered a bit in recent weeks, winning none of their last four games, meanwhile Madison have gone unbeaten for their last ten games entering this match, having scored in their last six games. I’m backing Madison to get a result out of this one, but Charlotte will make it challenging.
Bet: Madison win or tie double chance, over 2.5 goals (2.62)
Greenville v Lexington
1.60 - 3.80 - 4.50
Both of these teams enter this match with just one win across their last five matches in all competitions. Greenville are in the heart of the playoff picture while Lexington are on the outside looking in at the moment, but both teams are involved in crowded contests. The last three Greenville matches has seen over 3.5 goals, while two of the last four Lexington games have seen the same feat.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.61)
Richmond v Omaha
3.25 - 3.50 - 1.90
Omaha are playoff bound once again, it’s become routine for the Nebraska outfit as the side is hunting down their third USL1 Player’s Shield in four seasons, but Omaha have crucially been waiting since 2021 for their last league title. This week, Omaha face the one club that prevented them from winning three consecutive Players’ Shields in Richmond. Omaha are unbeaten in their last four games against Richmond, but the last three games have been at home. At City Stadium, Omaha have yet to win and with the Kickers chasing down a playoff spot, I think this is a match where Richmond could get a result from it.
Bet: Richmond or Omaha win double chance, over 2.5 goals (1.90)
Chattanooga v Knoxville
3.50 - 3.60 - 1.83
It’s a Tennessee derby day and Knoxville have gone unbeaten in the last three editions of this matchup, and a win in this game would see Knoxville clinch a finish above their Chattanooga rivals. After an 11 match unbeaten run, Knoxville has taken a bit of a wobble in recent weeks, dropping points to a pair of admittedly tough teams in Omaha and Madison. But I believe Knoxville gets back on track this week and continues their pursuit of a home playoff game, with a win.
Bet: Knoxville to win (1.83)
Northern Colorado v Tormenta
No odds as of writing
Off the high of last week’s Jagermeister Cup final, Northern Colorado are back to their league schedule to refocus their efforts on clinching a home playoff game for the postseason, meanwhile their opponents Tormenta are currently level on points with Richmond for the last playoff spot and will be looking to take advantage of a possible dropped points results from the Kickers this week. Four of the seven all-time meetings of these two teams have been over 2.5 goals, but for each club in this match, only one of their previous five games have been hitting the over.
Bet: Northern Colorado to win or tie, under 2.5 goals
Parlays
Hartford v Loudoun, Rhode Island v Tampa Bay, Las Vegas v Orange County all BTTS (5.27)
Charlotte v Madison, Greenville v Lexington, and Richmond v Omaha all over 2.5 goals (5.37)
Phoenix, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Sacramento all to win (7.69)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
Premier League:
Arsenal to win by 2 goals or more, Brentford and Manchester City to win (3.58)
Everton v Newcastle BTTS and over 2.5 goals (1.90)
Aston Villa to win against Manchester United (2.20)
Brighton v Tottenham BTTS and over 3.5 goals (2.00)
Scotland Sunday: Celtic, Aberdeen and Rangers all to win (2.22)
Bundesliga parlay: Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund to win (2.34)
NASCAR at Talladega, YellaWood 500:
Denny Hamlin top five finish (3.50)
Ryan Blaney top Ford driver (5.00)
Winning Manufacturer: Ford (2.45)
*Note, Talladega is an extremely unpredictable race due to the amount of large wrecks and randomness that can happen at this track, producing chaotic and wild finishes.
College Football:
Indiana to cover -14.5 vs Northwestern (2.02)
Tulane to cover -17.5 vs UAB (1.90)
Army to cover -12.5 vs Tulsa (1.90)
NC State to cover -5.5 vs Wake Forest (1.98)
UConn to cover -17.0 vs Temple (1.90)
Duke to cover +9.5 vs Georgia Tech (1.090)
UCF vs Florida over 62 points (1.90)
NFL:
Ravens over 24.5 points, Derrick Henry anytime TD and Ravens cover -2.5 vs Bengals (3.00)
Commanders -3.5 vs the Browns (1.83)
Panthers at Bears under 41.0 points (1.90)
Steelers ML vs Cowboys (1.71)
Final Thoughts
I am a tad worried about Football Manager 25 this year. Sports Interactive released their timeline of features to be unveiled and a short trailer this week—in addition to screenshots of the new game being found on Steam. While the game has some features and upgrades that I am excited for (adding in the Women’s Leagues, the switch to the Unity graphics engine), there has been some news that has me worried for the game (removing international management and touchline shouts, while also not having a beta for pre-ordering the game). Here is hoping the the features shown over the next month will calm my worries.
MLB playoffs have been exciting and it has set up three very tantalizing Divisional Series in this next round. Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians in a Battle of Lake Erie, San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers in an NL West clash, and quite possibly the most toxic, unhinged series of the round, between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies (we also have Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees). Going to be fun to follow.
Just a collection of random college football uniforms that have been released lately that I found pretty great:
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.