USL Odds, October 19
The penultimate weekend of the regular season for USLC and USL1 is upon us.
The playoff picture is coming into better focus for both USLC and USL1 as we enter the penultimate weekend of the regular season. USL1 has just one playoff spot left to confirm—which is currently held by Richmond in 8th. Meanwhile in USLC, there are four Eastern Conference clubs entering this match each level on 42 points, however only two of them are currently above the playoff cutline, we are in for a wild finish to the regular season.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, October 18th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Detroit win or tie and under 2.5 goals (2.30), Hartford v North Carolina BTTS and over 2.5 goals (2.05), Louisville to win and BTTS (3.60), Phoenix to score first (1.83), Las Vegas to score first (2.25), Richmond win or tie and over 2.5 goals (3.40), Omaha to win and over 2.5 goals (2.05), Madison to win (1.44), Charlotte v Northern Colorado over 2.5 goals (1.70), Greenville win or tie and over 2.5 goals (2.37)
Detroit win or tie, Pittsburgh win or tie, Louisville win, New Mexico win (5.85) | Richmond win or tie, Omaha win, Madison win (3.75)
I got all of my USL1 picks correct last week.
Army -6.5 first quarter spread and -16 first half spread parlay vs UAB (2.25), Memphis -7 vs USF (1.90), Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma (1.90), Bears -1.5 vs Jaguars (1.90), Texans -7 vs Patriots (2.00), Maye (NE) over 0.5 interceptions (1.66), Commanders at Ravens over 52 points (1.90), Derrick Henry (BAL) anytime TD (1.40), Jayden Daniels (WSH) over 1.5 passing TDs (2.20), Parlay Henry anytime TD and Daniels over 1.5 passing TDs (3.00), Bills -2.5 (1.90), Chevrolet winning manufacturer (1.71), Hendrick Motorsports to be winning team (3.25), Chase Elliott top ten finish (1.57)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Detroit v Miami
1.09 - 8.00 - 26.00
Detroit were able to clinch the next playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, last week with a 0-0 draw at Indy Eleven. Another win this week against the Wooden Spoon winners, Miami, and Detroit will confirm the #3 seed in the East. Miami have gone the last 582’ without scoring a goal—or being able to watch 90% of all five of the Indiana Jones movies. Detroit are unbeaten in the last three games against Miami and should see just enough to get a win against Miami this weekend.
Bet: Detroit win to nil and under 3 goals (2.87)
Tulsa v Hartford
2.05 - 3.50 - 3.00
This match is virtually a playoff contention elimination match for both clubs, who each sit 10th and 11th in their respective conferences. Tulsa are six points from a playoff spot while Hartford are closer, just two points from a playoff spot. What this series has seen all-time is goals. All four meetings between these two teams have been BTTS and three of those games were over 4.5 goals! However results wise, it has been split two wins apiece. Hartford are with three wins in their last four while Tulsa have just one win in their last four. However, the one stat that sticks out to me is that Tulsa have not won a home match since July 20th, whereas Harford have just one loss in their last five road games. I lean towards Hartford to win, but the safer bet is on goals.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Loudoun v Pittsburgh
2.50 - 3.20 - 2.50
Two clubs level on 42 points, one club above the playoff line (Pittsburgh) and the other below (Loudoun). This might be the most important game of the weekend for the Eastern Conference playoff picture as the winner of this match will feel a lot more comfortable about their playoff chances after this match. However, this is a series that is not kind to Loudoun, as Pittsburgh have won 12 of the 14 all-time meetings. It was June 2021 to find the last time that Loudoun had defeated the Riverhounds in a match. Loudoun are also just one win in their last five games entering this match. Given the recent form, I am backing Pittsburgh to get a result in this one, but don’t expect Loudoun to make it easy.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, BTTS (1.90)
Indy Eleven v Birmingham
1.80 - 3.50 - 3.50
In what has been a crucial closing few weeks to the season, Birmingham have seen their form drop over the last five games, where Legion have won just one game in that time. Birmingham now sit perilously outside of the playoff picture for the first time in months. It was enough for my USL Show co-host Kaylor Hodges to publish this most recent Hammering Down podcast pondering about Birmingham. Indy Eleven enter this game with just one loss in their last eight games—since their Open Cup semifinal exit—and now could be back in play for a home playoff game. Given the recent troubles that Birmingham have had, I think Indy Eleven are in a stronger spot right now and should see out a result to become the next club to punch their Eastern Conference playoff ticket.
Bet: Indy Eleven to win (1.80), Indy Eleven to score first (1.53)
Charleston v Rhode Island
1.60 - 3.90 - 4.33
I will be very interested to see how Charleston approaches this match, the first of two final home games of the regular season, as the Battery gear up for the postseason. Rhode Island meanwhile are still chasing down a home playoff game, currently #5 in the East, just a point back of Indy Eleven in fourth. Seeing how Rhode Island might be more motivated for this one given their home playoff spot is still in play while Charleston have locked up the #2 seed, I could see the visitors getting a result here. However, Charleston have just one defeat at home this year so bet this match with caution.
Bet: Charleston win or tie, BTTS (1.95)
Tampa Bay v North Carolina*
2.15 - 3.60 - 2.80
*Note, this match was originally a home match for Tampa Bay, but has now moved to Cary, NC due to Hurricane Milton.
The change of venue would undoubtedly have an impact on this fixture as this was originally set to be a Tampa Bay home match, instead the Rowdies have to travel to a stadium where they have not won since September 2018. Tampa Bay have just one win in their last six games, while North Carolina have won their last three home games. Both of these teams have been involved in high-scoring fixtures as of late, but given the change of venue, I am not entirely sure how to call this match’s result. Going safe with just doing a goals pick.
Bet: BTTS (1.53)
San Antonio v Louisville
4.33 - 3.70 - 1.65
A rematch of the 2022 USL Championship final—one where San Antonio lifted the league title per my Elo ratings, as the greatest team USLC had ever seen—but now a match that sees San Antonio in a very different spot to that final. Louisville are making a strong case that they could claim the title of “greatest ever USLC team” if they win the league this year—this is already the best ever Louisville City team thus far—while San Antonio enter this match needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. San Antonio have kept just one clean sheet at home this year and are going against a Louisville side who are the league’s best road team (the new “mentality monsters”?). Louisville left it last week to make it three wins from their last four games and I expect this run of form to continue.
Bet: Louisville to win and Louisville to score over 1.5 goals (2.00)
El Paso v Sacramento
3.20 - 3.25 - 2.05
In their final home game of the year, El Paso will be looking to play spoiler for Sacramento’s chances at the #2 seed in the West before heading off into the offseason for some soul searching about the club. Sacramento have won the last three games against El Paso in a “win to nil” result—six of the nine all-time meetings have been “win to nil” results in this series. Republic enter this game with just one win in their last five games and need a good result to try and keep pace with Las Vegas who they are tangled in a battle with for the #2 seed in the West. El Paso will not want to end the year on a sour result, especially since they could still mathematically avoid finishing in last of the West if they can win each of their final two games.
Bet: Sacramento to win or tie, No for BTTS (2.75)
Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs
2.75 - 3.25 - 2.25
In spite of their stellar home form, Colorado Springs has the worst record away from home in the entire Western Conference this year, just three wins on the year. If Colorado Springs can host a playoff game this year—they are currently in fourth of the West—it should see them through to the next round, but if they have to travel away in the postseason this year, it might spell the end of their playoff run. There has never been a draw in any of the nine previous meetings of these two clubs and even more astonishing, the home team has won every match. It you are looking for a good upset pick, Monterey Bay to win might not be the worst call.
Bet: Monterey Bay to win (2.75)
Orange County v New Mexico
2.05 - 3.80 - 2.75
It took until last week but New Mexico has finally wrapped up the #1 seed in the Western Conference for this year’s playoffs—though my Elo ratings have them actually below Las Vegas and Sacramento at the moment as something to watch for the playoffs. Orange County meanwhile have made a late charge down the stretch and should very likely find themselves in the postseason this year—clinching it if they get a win this weekend. OC are unbeaten in their last six games and have kept a clean sheet in five of those games, with none of those games being over 2.5 goals. I think having already clinched the #1 seed, and their opponents needing a result for a playoff spot to be confirmed, New Mexico might field a weaker lineup. I am backing Orange County to get a result at minimum.
Bet: Orange County win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.25)
Las Vegas v Oakland
1.55 - 3.70 - 5.00
What’s amazing to me about this matchup is how each of these clubs since the end of August has seen their fortunes absolutely reverse. Oakland have not won a match since August 31st, while Las Vegas have gone unbeaten in games since August 17th. It has propelled the Lights into second in the Western Conference and clinching a playoff spot, while Oakland has dropped far enough down the table that they could risk missing the playoffs entirely. 11 of Las Vegas’ last 12 games have been BTTS and at home, Las Vegas have not lost since April. I expect the Lights to find another win this weekend as they march towards the #2 seed in the West.
Bet: Las Vegas win, BTTS (3.50)
Phoenix v Memphis
2.20 - 3.40 - 2.75
It was Memphis who became the latest Western Conference team to clinch a playoff spot last week, and Phoenix could soon join them with a result this weekend. In my opinion, the Western Conference at the moment is seeing five strong clubs—New Mexico, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Colorado Springs and Memphis—and the remaining three playoff spots left to claim will be by clubs who have lots of question marks. Still, Phoenix currently possess the #6 seed in the West and Rising have won their last two games entering this match. Historically, this fixture has been weirdly high-scoring, all games being over 3.5 goals.
Bet: Phoenix to win, over 1.5 goals (2.87)
USL1
Richmond v Chattanooga
No odds as of writing
Another matchup in USL1 this week with major playoff implications. Richmond are looking to return to the postseason for the first time since 2022 and crucially hold the final playoff spot in USL1. If Chattanooga cannot win this weekend, it is likely to safe their playoff chances will have reached a conclusion. Richmond are unbeaten in their last five games while Chattanooga have no wins in their last ten games, Richmond should prevail and make that crucial next step towards the postseason.
Bet: Richmond to win
Madison v Knoxville
1.90 - 3.10 - 3.75
Madison are still chasing Omaha for the regular season #1 seed and need a win and Omaha loss or tie to still have a chance at the top spot. Knoxville, currently fifth in the league, still hold an outside chance at grabbing a top four place for a home playoff game in the first round of the playoffs. Madison enter this match having not lost a game since July 27th, while Knoxville have just one defeat in their last five games. I will back Madison to pick up another win this weekend just from being the home team, where Madison has just one defeat at home all season in the league.
Bet: Madison to win (1.90)
Lexington v Charlotte
2.30 - 3.40 - 2.60
Lexington’s time in USL1 is reaching its conclusion after this season as the team gears up for their move into USLC for 2025. However, if the Kentucky club cannot get a win this weekend, or a draw with other results going their way, they will miss the playoffs this season (it is certainly a risk of Lexington even finishing the year with the USL1 wooden spoon too…). However, these are two clubs who desperately need results for this match. Between the two clubs, there is just one win in their combined last ten games. The last three meetings of these two clubs have been BTTS and over 2.5 goals, which seems like a safe bet this week.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.57)
Tormenta FC v Omaha
2.80 - 3.70 - 2.05
Omaha can clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs, and regular season players’ shield for USL1—which would be their third shield in four seasons—with a win this weekend. Tormenta meanwhile need a win or a draw and certainly need a Richmond loss either way, to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tormenta, like Chattanooga, are winless in their last ten games while Omaha are unbeaten in five (it’s weird how similar this matchup’s trends are to Richmond v Chattanooga). Knowing that the shield could be clinched with a win, I think Omaha sees it over the line.
Bet: Omaha to win (2.05)
Northern Colorado v Spokane
1.45 - 4.20 - 5.25
Spokane were able to end their four match goalless drought last week, but it was a fifth game without a win for Velocity. In spite of all of that, Spokane were able to clinch a playoff spot last week in their maiden USL1 season. Northern Colorado can clinch a home playoff game with a win this week and enter this match unbeaten in their last five games across all competitions. Hailstorm have just one defeat at home in their last nine games as well.
Bet: Northern Colorado to win, over 2.5 goals (2.00)
Fuego FC v Greenville
No odds as of writing
In this Sunday afternoon matchup, it has been Greenville who controls this series historically. You have to go back to April 2022 to find the last time that Fuego got a win over Greenville. In the seven all-time meetings between these two teams, it’s been over 3.5 goals just on just three occasions. However, Greenville enter this match having seen over 2.5 goals in their last six league games—and are unbeaten in their last four. Greenville will know what they have to do to ensure they can keep a home playoff game in reach after the results of Saturday, but I back them to win this one in another goal-filled game.
Bet: Greenville to win and over 2.5 goals
Parlays
Carolina Ascent and Fort Lauderdale United to win (3.45)
Lexington v Charlotte, Tormenta v Omaha, and Northern Colorado v Spokane all over 2.5 goals (3.85)
Madison, Omaha and Northern Colorado all to win (5.64)
Detroit v Miami under 2.5 goals, Tulsa v Hartford and Las Vegas v Oakland both over 2.5 goals (6.96)
Sacramento, Charleston, Las Vegas and Louisville all to win (8.65)
Phoenix, Pittsburgh and North Carolina all to win (14.02)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other soccer:
English Premier League: Tottenham v West Ham, Manchester United v Brentford, Ipswich v Everton each BTTS (3.83)
English Championship: Preston to beat Coventry (2.80)
English Championship: Burnley to beat Sheffield Wednesday (2.60)
La Liga: Real Madrid -1.5 vs Celta Vigo (2.425)
Scottish League One: Annan Athletic win or tie v Inverness Caley Thistle (2.00)
College Football:
Army -15 vs ECU (1.90)
UConn -1 vs Wake Forest (1.90)
Alabama vs Tennessee over 57.5 (1.90)
Charlotte +16.5 vs Navy (1.90)
Temple -2.5 vs Tulsa (1.86)
Texas -5 vs Georgia (1.90)
South Florida -13.5 vs UAB (1.86)
NFL:
Bengals -5.5 vs Browns (1.90)
Lions at Vikings over 50.5 points (1.90)
Eagles -3 vs Giants (1.83)
Chiefs +1.5 vs 49ers (1.90)
Steelers ML vs Jets (2.10)
Formula 1 at the United States Grand Prix:
Lando Norris to win (1.90)
Albon points finish (2.20)
Gasly to beat Ocon (2.10)
Sauber both cars to be classified - No (3.40)
NASCAR at Las Vegas:
Joey Logano to finish top five (3.50)
Kyle Busch to finish top ten (1.80)
Denny Hamlin highest finished Toyota driver (3.60)
Final Thoughts
One USL Super League observation on the season, 19 of the 27 total matches played thus far have been under 2.5 goals. That is a whooping 70% of games played this season hitting the under in goals. While not entirely guaranteed, if you can find good odds on a USL Super League match (which are now being offered on bet365), on “Under 2.5 goals” bets, it may be worth a bet.
Shout out to RBLRTom (@RBLRTom on Twitter) for posting an interesting chart of who each USL Championship clubs’ fans view as their rivals within the league. Who knew Tulsa had such a rivalry for Birmingham Legion!
The MLB playoffs this year have been quite fun and it may have honestly hit a peak moment for the season with last night’s Yankees at Guardians game three. Cleveland, already 2-0 down in the series, got a walk-off home run from David Fry to win it in the 10th inning. The highlights were something stellar to watch back again this morning.
Just checking back in on my running progress for 2024, I have ran 435.06 miles in the calendar year thus far. Off pace from my 2023 total distance but still fairly happy with how far I have run this year. The weather getting colder outside now has been a welcome addition to my running routine in recent weeks though.
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.