USL Odds, October 12
Louisville clinched the shield, more playoff spots were confirmed in both USLC and USL1. The playoff picture becomes more clear.
Lots of the USL Championship teams playing tomorrow were involved in some midweek matches that will no doubt play a role in fatigue for the weekend, so be sure to keep that in mind when evaluating your picks. Congratulations for Louisville City on clinching the Player’s Shield this previous week in what has been a truly stellar season from the Kentucky outfit.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, October 11th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Rhode Island v Tampa Bay BTTS and over 2.5 goals, Tulsa v El Paso under 2.5 goals (1.80), Madison win or tie and over 2.5 goals (2.62), Greenville v Lexington over 2.5 goals (1.61)
Arsenal win by 2 goals or more, Brentford to win and Manchester City to win (3.58), Brighton v Tottenham BTTS and over 3.5 goals (2.22), Celtic, Aberdeen and Rangers all to win (2.22), Indiana to cover -14.5 vs Northwestern (2.02), Tulane to cover -17.5 vs UAB (1.90), Army to cover -12.5 vs Tulsa (1.90), Commanders -3.5 vs Browns
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Note: If a team was bolded, they played a game midweek, just as something to keep in mind.
Detroit v Indy Eleven
2.15 - 3.40 - 3.00
The winner of this game will be looking to become the next Eastern Conference team to punch their ticket to the postseason with a result. Indy Eleven, who had to see their LIPAFC rivals Louisville lift the Players’ Shield in their home stadium last week, will hope to get a result at Keyworth for the first time since March 2023. Indy Eleven have scored against Detroit in their last four meetings, but it is the hosts this week who enter the match unbeaten in their last six matches, getting hot at just the right time. I think this is a match that Detroit gets a result in—note, only two of the previous six Detroit City matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Detroit win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.30)
Pittsburgh v Charleston
2.50 - 3.60 - 2.35
Admittedly looking at this fixture, three points would mean a lot more for Pittsburgh, than it would for Charleston. The Battery have confirmed the #2 seed in the East this year while Pittsburgh are still in the midst of hunting down a playoff spot. Highmark Stadium is a venue that has never been friendly to the Battery in recent visits, as Charleston have not won in any of their last five visits here—the Battery have been shutout in three of those games in that time. It was July 2018 when Charleston last won at Highmark Stadium—Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) had just hit theaters. I think Pittsburgh, motivated by their pursuit of a playoff spot, get a result in this one, but I believe we could see both teams score.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, BTTS (2.50)
Hartford v North Carolina
2.45 - 3.50 - 2.50
North Carolina, off the back of a 2-0 win over Tulsa, have quietly entered the weekend occupying the seventh seed in the East. Hartford last time out, saw their seven match unbeaten reach and end against Loudoun and cannot afford to lose this match, sitting five points behind the playoff cutline (and North Carolina) for this game. The three all-time meetings between these two teams have seen BTTS in each game and two of those games over 2.5 goals. With Hartford still pursuing a playoff spot, I expect them to be the more desperate of the two teams for a result, but North Carolina, with three wins in their last four, might have just enough momentum to see out a result.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.05)
Louisville v Tampa Bay
1.50 - 4.33 - 4.75
It was a draw in the LIPAFC last week, but it was enough to see Louisville clinch the Player’s Shield—shockingly for the first time in their history. But I would still declare the USL Cup is Louisville’s to lose, especially since the club will be looking to end their Cup drought since 2018 when the side last won the league. Tampa Bay enter this match having lost four of their last five games and have dropped back in the table to where there is a chance that they miss out on top four altogether. Louisville should win this one in another high-scoring contest.
Also, I wanted to give props to Louisville City for launching a community donation fundraiser for Tampa Bay in the wake of Hurricane Milton, ahead of this match. Up to $10,000 will be matched by Louisville City with donations through to Sunday.
Bet: Louisville to win, BTTS, over 3.5 goals (3.60)
Colorado Springs v San Antonio
1.72 - 3.75 - 4.00
Both of these sides enter this match knowing that they threw away points on the midweek. It was Colorado Springs who, after a red card, lost 2-0 to Orange County in a match that saw them clinch a playoff spot, but drop to fourth in the Western Conference. San Antonio meanwhile threw away a 2-0 lead against rivals El Paso, conceding two goals past the 80’, to draw 2-2, a result that now leaves San Antonio perilously four points from a playoff spot. In the history of this fixture, the road club has only won twice (both times by San Antonio and most recently in 2022). Only two matches this year has seen Colorado Springs shut out at home and they face the worst team in the Western Conference in road games this year.
Bet: Colorado Springs win, over 1.5 goals (2.10)
Memphis v Sacramento
2.50 - 3.30 - 2.50
This match will be Sacramento’s first ever visit to Memphis in the history of these two clubs facing each other, and it’s catching both teams entering the game with just one win in their last five matches. Memphis look poised to be the next Western Conference team to book their ticket to the postseason. Memphis have actually gone unbeaten in their last 12 home games—a streak dating back to April 20th. Sacramento however are the West’s best team away from home this season, but have actually lost their last five road games (each of which were BTTS and over 2.5 goals). This match should be a fun one between the two Western Conference teams with the highest goal differential currently.
Bet 1: Memphis win or tie, BTTS, over 2.5 goals (3.40)
Bet 2: Memphis over 0.5 first half goals (2.10)
In their last seven games in which they had scored, Memphis have found the back of the net in each of those games
Tulsa v New Mexico
3.25 - 3.90 - 1.90
Surely New Mexico, after having the champagne ready at home last week in anticipation for clinching the #1 seed in the West only to lose to Phoenix, cannot delay their eventual #1 seed confirmation much longer (a win this week would make things official). Tulsa enter this match with just one win in their last eight games, getting shut out in half of those matches. It has seen the Oklahoma club drop to five points back of a playoff spot and entering this match in a must not lose scenario. I think New Mexico however, experiencing their own uncharacteristic poor run of form themselves with just two wins from five, will be the more likely of the two teams to get a result here.
Bet: New Mexico to win, BTTS (3.75)
Oakland v Phoenix
2.55 - 3.40 - 2.40
And breathe Phoenix Rising fans, it was a massive three points midweek against rivals New Mexico that saw Phoenix earn a cushiony four gap just above the playoff cutline. Oakland, despite ending their goalless drought of 428’ last week—or being able to watch the first three Hunger Games movies in that span—are still winless in their last five games. It has seen the Roots drop from contention to host a first round playoff game, to now likely drawing one of Las Vegas, Sacramento or Colorado Springs away in the first round. Phoenix are unbeaten against Oakland in their last three meetings, but have not won away at Oakland since August 2021.
Bet: Phoenix win or tie, over 1.5 goals (1.83)
Bet 2: Phoenix to score first (1.83)
Rhode Island v Loudoun
1.65 - 4.10 - 4.10
A crucial match for both teams this weekend. Rhode Island sit just one point behind Indy Eleven for a home playoff spot and can take advantage of potentially dropped points by Indy and Tampa Bay this weekend, to pass them in the table. Loudoun however, need a win or else I think their playoff chances are on the rocks with games against Pittsburgh and Charleston looming after this one. The reverse fixture back in August was 0-0, but Rhode Island are riding a three match win streak entering this game (each game being BTTS and over 2.5 goals too), and I think RIFC continue that form and get all three points this weekend.
Bet 1: Rhode Island to win (1.65)
Bet 2: Rhode Island over 0.5 second half goals (1.50)
Birmingham v Las Vegas
2.15 - 3.50 - 2.90
The Las Vegas Lights are playoff bound. This was certainly a sentence I was not expecting to say at the start of the season, much less say that Las Vegas—unbeaten in their last seven games—are in contention to be the #2 seed in the West. That’s the Jose Bautista effect for you. Birmingham close out their regular season home games with this Sunday afternoon fixture, desperately needing a win to put some distance between themselves and those looking up at them below the playoff cutline. The Lights, chasing the #2 seed in the West, I think start out this match strong-they’ve scored a goal in the first half in two of their last three games—and get a result here.
Bet: Las Vegas win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (3.10)
Bet 2: Las Vegas to score first (2.25)
USL1
Tormenta v Richmond
1.85 - 3.50 - 3.50
This is almost a perfectly chaotic fixture for a Friday night to kick-off your USL1 weekend. Nine of the last ten meetings between these two clubs have been BTTS, six of those games ended in over 2.5 goals scored. In what is in essence a massive six-pointer as these two teams sit on either side of the playoff cutline, a win for Tormenta (a point back of Richmond) or the Kickers (currently in the last playoff spot) would go a major way towards determining this final playoff spot.
Bet: Richmond to win or tie, over 2.5 goals (3.40)
Omaha v Lexington
1.44 - 4.33 - 5.25
Omaha are in the form of their season right now, getting hot at the exact perfect time as they continue their march into the postseason and are looking to lock up the regular season #1 seed. Lexington meanwhile have just one win in their last five league games and have not beaten a team currently occupying a playoff spot since Richmond on July 27th. It’s hard to see Omaha dropping form against Lexington this weekend.
Bet: Omaha to win and over 2.5 goals (2.05)
Madison v Chattanooga
1.44 - 4.33 - 5.25
Madison has largely been in control of this series recently, as they have won the last three games played against the Red Wolves in this matchup. Chattanooga has been a mess over the last few months, having not won any of their last nine games across all competitions. It was July 27th to find the last time the Red Wolves won a game. It’s hard to pick against Madison in this match.
Bet: Madison to win (1.44)
Charlotte v Northern Colorado
4.00 - 3.60 - 1.72
This fixture has historically been one filled with goals, as seven of their eight all-time meetings have been BTTS—each of those seven games were over 2.5 goals as well (a further five were over 3.5 goals). Jagermeister Cup champions Northern Colorado are looking to clinch a home field playoff game while Charlotte has completely fallen out of form with no wins in their last five games across all competitions. A goals bet is usually a safe one for this match.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.70)
Spokane v Greenville
3.10 - 3.40 - 2.00
Spokane saw their third consecutive defeat midweek as they took a 0-1 loss to Central Valley Fuego. Greenville, off the back of adding Brazilian legend Ronaldinho to their ownership group this week (seriously, how have they managed this news? I could’ve been given 100 guesses at which former player has bought into the ownership group and would not have said Ronaldinho) enter this match unbeaten in their last three games and holding the final home playoff spot at the moment. While Spokane have not clinched yet, I think given their seven point gap to ninth place Tormenta, Velocity should find themselves in the postseason, but their form is not one to inspire confidence in a result this weekend.
Bet: Greenville win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.37)
Parlays
Detroit win or tie, Pittsburgh win or tie, Louisville win, New Mexico win (5.85)
Pittsburgh v Charleston, Hartford v North Carolina, Louisville v Tampa Bay all BTTS (4.68)
Memphis v Sacramento over 2.5 goals, Rhode Island v Loudoun over 2.5 goals, Birmingham v Las Vegas BTTS (5.22)
All USL1 picks from above (8.46)
Richmond win or tie, Omaha win, Madison win (3.75)
Non-USL Related Bets:
College Football:
Maryland to cover -11 vs Northwestern (1.90)
West Virginia over 27.5 points vs Iowa State (2.25)
Tennessee to cover -14 vs Florida (1.90)
Ohio State ML vs Oregon and game over 54 points (3.10)
Jeremiah Smith and TreVeyon Henderson both anytime TD (3.75)
Army -6.5 first quarter spread and -16 first half spread parlay vs UAB (2.25)
Memphis -7 vs USF (1.90)
Penn State -3.5 vs USC (1.90)
Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma (1.90)
NFL:
Bears -1.5 vs Jaguars (1.90)
Texans -7 vs Patriots (2.00)
Maye (NE) over 0.5 interceptions (1.66)
Falcons -6 vs Panthers (1.90)
Commanders at Ravens over 52 points (1.90)
Derrick Henry (BAL) anytime TD (1.40)
Jayden Daniels (WSH) over 1.5 passing TDs (2.20)
Parlay Henry anytime TD and Daniels over 1.5 passing TDs (3.00)
Bills -2.5 vs Jets (1.90)
NASCAR at the Charlotte Roval:
Chevrolet winning manufacturer (1.71)
Hendrick Motorsports (3.25) or Joe Gibbs Racing (5.50) to be winning team
Tyler Reddick top five finish (2.50)
Chase Elliott top ten finish (1.57)
Kyle Busch top ten finish (2.00)
This is a very tempting offer, but Shane Van Gisbergen at 6.00 to win at the Roval is interesting, alongside AJ Allmendinger at 9.00.
Final Thoughts
East Carolina football continues to disappoint me with every passing week (but they won’t this week with our bye week lol!). I wrote an article earlier this week discussing why it is time—well, very much past time—to fire our current head coach, Mike Houston. I was hoping a change would have been made this week but given that we have reached Friday with no word from the program, I guess he will be staying onboard at least until we are confirmed to not reach a bowl game this year.
It was announced yesterday that Football Manager 25, will now be delayed until March 2025. I have to say, while I figured the behind the scenes development of the game has been calamitous for Sports Interactive, I am very disappointed to see the game delayed—particularly since they offered out pre-orders for the game only to turn around ten days later and delay the game. Jack, aka “WorkTheSpace”, had an excellent video that has summarized my feelings on the situation as well. The delay is the right decision, but it seems like Sports Interactive has burned through any goodwill they had with the Football Manager community that this game now needs to be perfect upon release. I guess in the meantime, I will keep playing FM24, or College Football 25, or even getting back into Out of the Park Baseball as well (which is quickly becoming one of my favorite sports simulation/management games).
The MLB postseason has been very fun as well. Both New York teams reached their league’s Championship Series this past week with the Dodgers-Padres (tonight!) and Guardians-Tigers series each going to a crucial game five. I would honestly be very excited to have another Subway Series World Series as well. But these playoffs have been quite exciting to watch this year.
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.