USL Odds, March 6
We're back! Welcome to the 2026 USL Championship and League One seasons!
After the long wait since the November, we are back with the USL Championship and League One seasons this weekend! With the largest slate of USL1 teams in league history—and a true home-and-home schedule no less—alongside some new expansion teams in USLC with Brooklyn and Jacksonville, we should be in for an exciting season ahead! I am once again thrilled to be back writing my weekly USL Odds articles previewing the matchweek ahead through the scope of the best angles of odds for the weekend. Let’s make it a great season ahead of us with wagers! Best of luck!
Please note, as of writing this article, all USL Championship matches are scheduled to go ahead.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet. It’s early season USL, so these odds may vary wildly in the early weeks.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, March 6th.
Check out where we at the USL Show predicted the regular season table would finish for USLC East, West, and USL1 which I will reference quite a bit throughout this article.
USL Championship
Lexington v Louisville
3.50 - 3.25 - 2.00
Kicking off the season with a fun curtain rising match of the “Bluegrassico” derby of Lexington v Louisville. What a storyline we have for both teams entering this 2026 season. Louisville was last year’s runaway Players’ Shield winners with only one loss on the board, but it was a swift exit from the playoffs in the first round. The premier club in USLC are still looking for their first league title since 2018. Lexington meanwhile, determined to not let missing the playoffs last season define the club, have gone “all-in”, spent big this off-season to assemble this roster. Players such as former Louisville star Phillip Goodrum, along with Arturo Ordonez, Aaron Molloy, Jonathan Lewis and Javian Brown join the roster for Lexington this season.
All that being said, Louisville holds a perfect 3-0 record over Lexington in the history of this series, two of those wins coming last year—who could forget Jake Morris’ brace in stoppage time of 90’ to propel Louisville past Lexington in the Jagermeister Cup. Louisville will be keen to keep that 100% win rate against their in-state foes, but this is the best Lexington squad assembled to date, possibly even one of the best USL teams brought together. We are in for a treat to open the USLC season!
Pick: BTTS (1.83)
Charleston v Pittsburgh
1.90 - 3.00 - 4.00
At long last, Pittsburgh can add their name alongside their opponent this week, as a USL league champion having been in the league since 2011. Under Rob Vincent, Pittsburgh get set to defend their league title this season on the road at Ben Pirmann’s Charleston Battery. Having not conceded a goal in the entire playoff run, Pittsburgh’s route to a league title was remarkable, meanwhile Charleston followed Louisville’s example with an early playoff exit that stood as a blemish on an otherwise stellar regular season campaign. Both teams with a point to prove this season, gets us started at Patriots Point tomorrow.
It was a pair of 2-1 wins for the Battery last year when these two teams met, and Pittsburgh a has yet to win a game away at Charleston since 2021. Both sides are susceptible to a slow start on the season, each beginning the 2025 campaign with just one win in their first three games played. But I’m backing the Battery to get the result over the reigning league champions, while keeping Pittsburgh low-scoring.
Pick: Charleston ML, Pittsburgh under 1.5 team goals (2.00)
Jacksonville v Hartford
2.10 - 3.50 - 2.80
Welcome into USLC, Sporting Jacksonville! One of two expansion teams into the league this season, the Florida club plays host to a team who won silverware last year in your reigning USL Prinx Cup winners, Hartford Athletic. Last season was the year where it all seemingly clicked into place for Hartford, after years of strife, it finally resulted in a trophy for the club. Though they exited the playoffs in the first round, I would classify last year as a success for Hartford, and the team is largely running it back with the same squad.
Jacksonville was admittedly someone we at the USL Show were rather low on when we did our Eastern Conference preview, picking them last in the conference. But having watched a bit of their preseason matches, there is something chaotic about this Sporting JAX team that can work for me—they picked up a 2-1 preseason win over Charleston a few weeks ago. Weird results always happen in USLC and remember this was a Hartford team who opened last year with just one win in their first 11 games played in the league last year. Maybe sprinkle a bit on Jacksonville getting a random opening day win as a club, but let’s go for a high-scoring game.
Pick: BTTS/over 2.5 goals (2.20)
Birmingham v Tampa Bay
2.70 - 3.50 - 2.20
Trust in Dom Casciato to figure it out for Tampa Bay. That’s my advice as the Rowdies embark on their first full season under the leadership of the former Omaha manager—and what an off-season its been for the Rowdies in their signings. The likes of MD Myers, Austin Pack, Marco Micaletto, Evan Conway and Pedro Dolabella just to highlight a few names that stood out to me joining the locker room at Al Lang Stadium. It’s a sunrise for a new day of Rowdies soccer!
Birmingham Legion are similarly going through their own off-season upheaval as Mark Briggs left for MLS coaching, in comes Jay Heaps as manager. The former New England Revolution manager will be looking to deliver the Legion to their first playoff appearance since 2023. Just getting Birmingham to play consistent soccer would be a step in the right direction as the club has not won back to back games in the league since 2024.
Historically, this series has been one filled with goals—the two meetings from last season saw a combined nine goals scored across them—and to the credit of both Birmingham and Tampa Bay, neither team were shutout in more than a third of their games played in the league last season. I like Tampa Bay to get the result in this one, but for it to be a fun match for goals.
Pick: Tampa Bay win or tie, over 2.5 total goals (2.50)
San Antonio v Phoenix
2.35 - 3.10 - 2.70
Nothing separated these two former league champions in the table last season, they finished each with 40 points in the table (Phoenix just ahead on tiebreakers having won both meetings in the league last season). Similarly this season, we at the USL Show picked both these teams to be playoff sides but neither were picked to be a home playoff team. Starting with the hosts, San Antonio, a few seasons removed from their 2022 league title (which I still consider to be the best team USLC has ever seen), the results since that trophy campaign have been middling at best. But with the arrivals of Mikey Maldonado and the return of Cristian Parano, perhaps there is something about this San Antonio team that make them a difficult club to face. Phoenix meanwhile set out in season two of manager Pa-Modou Kah’s tenure, coming off a year where they picked up a season high 13 draws. Picking up points in any circumstance nearly carried this Phoenix Rising team to a home playoff game, converting these draws into wins could make this Phoenix team a real threat in the West.
In the league, Phoenix has scored the opening goal against San Antonio in each of the last three meetings, but Phoenix has won just two of their nine all-time visits to San Antonio (last season, and 2022). Only once, the aforementioned 2022 meeting, has San Antonio been shutout by Phoenix at home too. A tough match to call but going BTTS which hit in 50% of San Antonio games last year and 66% of Phoenix games last season with a slight hedge on the hosts.
Pick: San Antonio win or tie, BTTS (2.30)
El Paso v Colorado Springs
2.30 - 3.20 - 2.70
In a meeting of two playoff teams from last season for the West—both of which exited in the first round—El Paso plays host to a Colorado Springs team they have not beaten in any of their last five meetings (to be fair, Colorado Springs has only won two of those matches). While we at the USL Show had the Switchbacks barely sneaking into the playoffs, we cast concerns over this El Paso Locomotive defense for the year ahead—I even set their over/under of goals conceded at 59.5 for the season (for note, I said under…). 2022 was the last time El Paso kept a clean sheet over Colorado Springs and the Locomotive could only manage six clean sheets last season in 2025. This defense could be a problem for El Paso all season.
On just nine occasions last year did Colorado Springs score multiple goals in a match in the league last season (including a 2-2 draw over El Paso on opening day of last season nearly 365 days ago). Let’s test how porous this Locomotive defense might be and pick the Switchbacks to score multiple goals this weekend, likely en route to their first result of the season.
Pick: Colorado Springs win or tie, Colorado Springs over 1.5 team goals (2.90)
Monterey Bay v Oakland
2.10 - 3.25 - 3.00
It’s a new era for Oakland Roots as in comes former Loudoun United manager, Ryan Martin, to lead the club at the Coliseum. With the likes of Tommy McCabe, Florian Valot and Keegan Tingey joining the Roots with Martin, this promises to be a new direction for Oakland. From our season preview, we at the USL Show were all rather high on Oakland picking them into a home playoff game, so this could be an undervalued team all season. Monterey Bay just barely avoided a last place in the West finish last year but with the club still searching for their first playoff appearance in their history, I am not so sure their fortunes will change with this new season—we as a podcast picked them to finish bottom of the conference.
While they may be boosted by the arrival of former MLS player Sebastian Lletget, Monterey Bay still seem like a team that are a work in progress. Given how highly I think of this Oakland Roots team at the moment, these odds are too good to pass up. I’m picking the Roots to make it three wins in a row over Monterey Bay, and to get their first win in this stadium since 2023.
Pick: Oakland ML (3.00)
Orange County v Las Vegas
1.75 - 3.25 - 4.20
Two teams we picked as outside the Western Conference playoff picture during our season preview, Orange County and Las Vegas will both hope that our predictions were wrong entering the year (and to Orange County’s credit, they were in the Western Conference semifinals last season). Las Vegas last season in the league were just woeful, just one win in their final 15 games played to finish rock bottom of the conference. Orange County managed to string together enough results to make it into the playoffs last year.
Both of these teams both enter the year with a bit of unknowns about them and how the season should play out. One interesting aspect of this series is the fact that Las Vegas has lost just once to Orange County in each of their last five meetings, with three of these five meetings going over 2.5 goals too (all three being played with Orange County as the home team). 2020 was actually the last time we had a Orange County-Las Vegas game played in Southern California that was under 1.5 total goals. I trust Orange County more with this result.
Pick: Orange County win or tie, over 2.5 total goals (2.30)
Sacramento v Tulsa
1.95 - 3.20 - 3.60
What better way to open the USLC Western Conference season with a meeting of last season’s #1 and #2 from the regular season in matchday one? Tulsa made headlines all year with their first conference title in club history and were a penalty shootout from being league champions. Sacramento, in spite of their top regular season, suffered another early playoff exit as the club looks for their first season going past the first round of the playoffs since 2023 (and first league title as a club since 2014…).
Beating Sacramento was practically Tulsa’s “white whale” as a club as prior to last season—where they did the double over Republic no less—as Tulsa had not beaten Sacramento in any match. Now, Tulsa hold a two game win streak over Republic. In 10 of their 16 wins last year, Tulsa earned a win to nil result, including both wins over Sacramento. These odds are intriguing enough to sprinkle a bit on Tulsa ML (3.60) to open the year, but let’s play it a bit safer and just go Tulsa double chance and keeping the goals at bay.
Pick: Tulsa win or tie, under 3.5 total goals (1.90)
Brooklyn v Indy Eleven
1.85 - 3.50 - 3.40
We end our first weekend of USLC 2026 play with expansion side Brooklyn hosting Indy Eleven on Coney Island—home to the closest Taco Bell to a USLC stadium! It may have been late in the season preparations, but Brooklyn have got a squad assembled and ready for the year ahead, with the likes of JC Obregon, Jackson Lee, and even former Wilmington Hammerhead player Tommy McNamara in the midfield. Brooklyn will have a good measuring stick with Jacksonville, a fellow expansion team, entering the league at the same time. Just finish above Jacksonville should be goal #1 for the season. Indy Eleven last season was more of the same that we have seen from this club for the last five years, underwhelming as they finished two points outside of the playoffs. We have similarly picked the Indiana club to finish outside the playoff picture again this year as well.
With a club searching for an identity in Indy Eleven, going up against a side still trying to put the pieces together for their first season in this league, we may be looking at first “stoppable force vs movable object” match of the season. While just ten Indy Eleven games last season went under 2.5 goals, I’m just getting a feeling that this one would be a low-scoring contest. All over to how Brooklyn look and play in their first match in USLC. Hope it’s a good crowd on hand for the New York club.
Pick 1: Under 2.5 goals (1.95)
Pick 2: Brooklyn ML (1.85)
USL1
Naples v Fort Wayne
2.15 - 3.25 - 3.30
Welcome to USL1 Fort Wayne! The Indiana club has been building in USL2 for numerous seasons, growing the club until it has finally reached the professional ranks in time for the 2026 USL1 season! With the likes of DaMarcus Beasley in the ownership group, having kept manager Mike Avery from USL2 into the “promotion” to USL1, the eyes of the USL ecosystem will be on Fort Wayne this season as a blueprint to follow for other clubs looking to move up to USL1 and beyond. Naples meanwhile opened last year strong, unbeaten in their first six games, winning four of them. Naples would later go ten games unbeaten in the summer of that season, but it was a semifinal exit that ultimately ended their first season.
Hopes are very high for Fort Wayne this year, and the expectations for Naples are more of a mixed bag as the side has lost lots of their production from last season—Karsen Henderlong, Chris Heckenberg and Jake Dengler are all massive exits for the Florida club. I’m riding high on Fort Wayne to open the year and I’m going for the odds upset and picking the expansion side to get a win on matchday one.
Pick: Fort Wayne ML (3.30)
Westchester v Knoxville
3.30 - 3.60 - 1.85
To open up the 2026 season, we have a meeting of last season’s worst—Westchester—and first—Knoxville— placed teams from the prior year. Knoxville was able to cap off a Players’ Shield winning season with the USL1 league title as well in one of the best seasons in league history (it was the second best year all-time per my Elo ratings). Westchester meanwhile put together a year to forget in their maiden season in the league. The New York team was famous for getting their early leads only to find themselves settling for draws or dropping to losses entirely, all last season—it resulted in the club having a bottom ten year in league history per my Elo ratings. Furthermore, Westchester could not string together consecutive wins on the season, and waited until September before they could score a victory at home that was not a forfeit.
All that to say, Westchester enters the year with a hell of a lot of work to do—we as a USL Show picked them to be the wooden spoon recipients again—while Knoxville will be hoping to keep the results rolling on the season. In their two meetings last season, we saw a pair of 1-1 draws play out, and Westchester did score first only to drop points when the two clubs met last time in Mount Vernon. While it might be too soon to see if this Westchester team can grab early goals, I do think fading the club to start the year is the move.
Pick: Knoxville win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.37)
Sarasota v Boise
No odds as of writing
Having become a sort of tradition for USL1 recently, when two expansion teams enter the league in the same season, have those sides face each other in their first ever games (see Naples v Portland to open last year). Welcome to USL1, Sarasota Paradise and AC Boise! AC Boise has been amassing a remarkable squad under Nate Miller’s leadership as manager for their first season as a club—numerous players with plenty of USL experience to long time fans of the league. Sarasota—along with being the nearest USL1 club to a Taco Bell—headline their club with players such as Garrett McLaughlin, Chandler O’Dwyer and Aaron Walker.
Travel across the country is never easy in USL1, and as these two clubs situated in the far corners of the league will soon find out, no away day is easy. I think we see a match featuring growing pains for both clubs as each works to figure out what teams they have moving forward on the year. Where each team ends this season I believe won’t be anything like how they start this year. AC Boise are the better team of these two in my opinion, but I am picking a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline if we went that far, for this match.
Pick: Draw
Correct scoreline wager: 1-1
AV Alta v Richmond
2.20 - 3.40 - 2.62
Last season was simply not up to the standards that we come to expect from a Richmond Kickers team. The Virginia club had their worst ever USL1 campaign finishing eight points from a playoff spot, with their lowest ever Elo rating achieved. As Darren Sawatzky enters his eighth season at the helm, Richmond fans will be hoping he leads the club to their first playoff appearance since 2024. AV Alta meanwhile just barely missed out on the playoffs in their first season as a club last year—took it to the final day even only to fall short by just a point. However the story of AV Alta last season had to be their second half collapse as they ended the year with just one win in their final 15 games played (ironically coming against Richmond in the penultimate matchday).
These two clubs split the series last season, each picking up a win at their respective home grounds in games that saw the winning side score over 1.5 goals as a team. In a league where home field advantage is so crucial, Richmond not winning any of their games played on the road west of Omaha stands out to me. I’ll stay away from a results wager on this one since AV Alta’s own form to end last season was a concern. Rooting for a high-scoring affair to cap off the first USL1 weekend of the season.
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (1.80)
Parlays
ML/Double Chance Parlay:
Charleston, Orange County ML (3.32)
Oakland, Tampa Bay ML (6.60)
Fort Wayne ML, Knoxville win or tie (4.12)
Colorado Springs or tie, Tulsa or tie, Brooklyn or tie (3.18)
BTTS/Goals Parlay:
Lexington v Louisville, Jacksonville v Hartford, San Antonio v Phoenix all BTTS (5.70)
Birmingham v Tampa Bay, Orange County v Las Vegas, AV Alta v Richmond all over 2.5 total goals (6.06)
Underdog Parlay:
Oakland ML, Fort Wayne ML, Tulsa or tie (16.83)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 10.50
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
MLS
Charlotte ML (2.00)
Idan Toklomati (CLT) ATGS (2.60)
San Diego ML (1.80)
Columbus v Chicago BTTS/over 2.5 total goals (1.72)
Philadelphia v San Jose: Timo Werner (SJ) goal or assist anytime (2.37)
Colorado win or tie v LA Galaxy, BTTS (1.95)
NYRB ML, over 1.5 total goals (1.72)
MLS Next Pro:
Crown Legacy v Huntsville City over 2.5 total goals (1.61)
England/Scotland
Arsenal win to nil v Mansfield, over 2.5 Arsenal team goals (2.15)
Wrexham v Chelsea BTTS/over 2.5 total goals (1.90)
Manchester City to advance (1.57)
Fulham and Leeds to advance, Sunderland ML parlay (2.08)
Coventry ML (1.90)
Ipswich, Derby ML parlay (1.78)
Agyemang (DER) ATGS (1.95)
Swansea ML (1.90)
Cardiff v Lincoln BTTS, Cardiff win or tie (2.15)
Hearts ML (1.57), Rangers ML (1.69) - Parlay both (2.65)
Celtic v Motherwell BTTS (1.61)
Other European Games:
Dortmund ML (1.75)
RB Leipzig, Hoffenheim ML parlay (2.23)
St Pauli v Frankfurt BTTS (1.75)
Barcelona ML, over 2.5 total goals v Athletic Bilbao (2.10)
Lamine Yamal ATGS (2.25)
Como, Juventus ML parlay (2.00)
Other Sports:
College Baseball (Friday games only):
East Carolina at Coastal Carolina over 10.5 total runs (1.76)
Wake Forest -2.5 vs Stanford (1.83)
Louisiana-Lafayette ML at Dallas Baptist (1.66)
Oregon State, USC, Arizona ML parlay (2.44)
World Baseball Classic
USA vs Brazil
USA -10.5 spread (1.86)
Aaron Judge 1+ home run (3.00 bet boost)
Aaron Judge 2+ hits (1.86)
Logan Webb 5+ strikeouts (1.71)
NBA
Hornets, Rockets, Celtics ML parlay (2.12)
Heat at Hornets player props:
Ball and Knueppel (CLT) 3+ threes made each (1.80)
Herro (MIA) over 21.5 points (1.89)
Clippers at Spurs player props:
Wembanyama (SA) over 24.5 points (1.90)
Fox (SA) under 16.5 points (1.90)
NCAA Basketball (Friday games only)
Chattanooga -7 vs The Citadel (1.90)
VCU ML vs Dayton (2.10)
Texas State -1 vs Southern Miss (1.83)
NHL
Friday games:
Red Wings, Blackhawks ML parlay (2.74)
Avalanche at Stars over 6 total goals (1.90)
MacKinnon (COL) ATGS 2.05
Necas (COL) ATGS (2.80)
Saturday games:
Devils, Sabres ML parlay (2.39)
Blue Jackets ML (1.90)
Formula 1 - Australian Grand Prix
Note, all picks are made before qualifying.
George Russell race win (3.00)
Kimi Antonelli podium finish (2.10)
Mercedes both cars podium finish (2.75)
Ollie Bearman points finish (1.90)
Valtteri Bottas classified as last finisher (3.50)
Lance Stroll first driver to retire (2.50)
Aston Martin first constructor retirement (1.40)
NASCAR - Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway
Manufacturer winner: Ford (3.00)
Ryan Blaney top five finish (1.90)
Chris Buescher top ten finish (2.20)
Ross Chastain top ten finish (2.40)
Buescher wins h2h vs Zilisch (1.76)
Chastain wins h2h vs Hocevar (1.71)
Bell wins h2h vs Hamlin (2.00)
Josh Berry to win a group of himself, Zilisch, Hocevar and Cindric (3.00)
Final Thoughts
I am excited to be back writing these weekly odds posts for USL and I hope you enjoy reading these articles each week! Please let me know if you have any feedback or content you would like to see specifically covered in the article each week. Thank you for reading!
I ran a mile in 7’00” flat last night and did 4 miles this morning on an 8’00” pace. I’m just glad the weather has been really pleasant lately so that I can get back to running outside again—having done much of my miles run in 2026 thus far on a treadmill.
I need more theaters in my city to have showings of the new Peaky Blinders movie.
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.