USL Odds, June 6
With the European leagues having reached a conclusion last week, the Biggest League in the World™ takes center stage...
The Jagermeister Cup matches of last week seemed to produce some unexpected scorelines, but plenty of entertaining games. But it made for some tough wagers from our picks last week. Still there were plenty of results that did break our way, lots of wagers that cashed for us beyond USL. We return to the somewhat more predictable league play (well, one would hope for their wagers), as we enter into the month of June. The days of Summer are fast approaching, let’s make it a good weekend. Many of the matches this week are at plus odds for all ML results…
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, June 6th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USL: Westchester to score first (2.50), Hartford win or tie and over 2.5 goals (2.37), Charlotte win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.50), Miami v Naples over 2.5 goals (1.50), Sacramento to win and Sacramento score first goal (1.86), AV Alta win or tie (1.44)
Parlays: Westchester v Hartford, Phoenix v New Mexico both over 2.5 goals (3.14)
Beyond USL: Ousmane Dembele (PSG) score or assist (1.95), Charlotte win or tie v Toronto, over 1.5 total goals (1.70), Miami v Columbus BTTS, over 2.5 goals, Suarez score anytime (2.62), Mets -1.5 spread v Rockies (1.66), Yankees at Dodgers over 9 runs (1.95), Yankees at Dodgers Run in first inning - Yes (1.76), Ohtani and Judge each 1+ hit (1.90), Pacers ML, Over 211.5 total points (2.15), Tyrese Haliburton over 20.5 points (1.83), Three leg parlay of Pegula, Gauff and Keys ML (2.41) - Saturday matches, Oscar Piastri to win (2.37), Fernando Alonso points finish (1.50), Isack Hadjar points finish (1.72), Oliver Bearman to beat Esteban Ocon in qualifying (1.72), Kyle Busch to beat Ty Gibbs H2H (1.83), Joey Logano to beat Brad Keselowski (1.80), Denny Hamlin top five finish (1.90)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Hartford v North Carolina
2.70 - 3.40 - 2.30
As of late, Hartford has found themselves in some chaotic fixtures. They had the 4-4 draw with Indy Eleven midweek in the league last week, followed up by a 3-2 win over Westchester in the Jagermeister Cup last weekend (in come from behind fashion no less). This is the first time since September of last year that Hartford has gone unbeaten in four consecutive games against USL clubs. North Carolina meanwhile has won their last four games against USL sides, three of which has been win to nil matches. If the NCFC defense can show up, I like the visitors to get a result. That being said, the visiting team has never won a match of this series, and each of their four previous meetings have been BTTS (with three going over 2.5 goals).
Bet: North Carolina win or tie, BTTS (2.15)
Loudoun v Charleston
2.70 - 3.60 - 2.25
The winners of seven league matches in a row, the “hottest team in the league” I dubbed last week, Charleston ended up losing 1-0 to Greenville in the Jagermeister Cup, putting a serious dent in their likelihood of advancing (the Battery have lost their last three “cup” games in fact). Loudoun meanwhile pulled off a shocking 2-1 win over Louisville last week in the cup—Nicholas Murray had a great article to mark the occasion—to earn their first win over Louisville since July 2019 (or when Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) was still in theaters). What I had originally thought would be an easy advantage for Charleston, now becomes a more interesting match in this light.
That said, Loudoun has not beaten Charleston in a game since October 2019 (Loudoun seemed busy that fall for major victories). However, eight of the all-time twelve meetings have been BTTS, including the last three. For both clubs, over half of their league matches this year has been BTTS as well. I lean more towards Charleston to get a result in this match.
Bet: BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Honestly, Charleston at plus odds to win is too tempting to pass up as well (2.25)
Pittsburgh v Detroit
1.95 - 3.10 - 3.90
This match on its surface just strikes me as being under 2.5 goals, especially with this being played at Highmark. In fact, in the eight all-time meetings between these two sides, all of them have been under 2.5 goals, and the last six meetings have not seen a BTTS. Only once, October 2023, has the visiting team won the match as well (Detroit 1-0 over Pittsburgh). Detroit has quietly gone their last five games against USL opposition without a win, as their hot start to the season as slowed. At home, and given its history in this series, I have Pittsburgh getting another low-scoring result on the board.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, under 2.5 goals (1.83)
Rhode Island v Miami
1.38 - 4.75 - 6.25
The last time Miami faced Rhode Island was on the final day of the regular season of last year, and Rhode Island scored 8 goals to hand the Florida club one of their worst ever defeats in club history. But we almost certainly won’t see that same scoreline this time around. This is a very different Miami team this season, but that has not stopped them from conceding goals, they have had BTTS in each of their last six games played. Rhode Island has not had BTTS in each of their last four games, and at home this season, have yet to see a game over 2.5 goals v USL opposition. The simplest wager on this for me is BTTS, this outcome could really end in the points being shared but I don’t want to predict that far.
Bet: BTTS (2.00)
Louisville v Tampa Bay
1.57 - 3.60 - 5.75
This is one of the premier fixtures of the Eastern Conference over the past decade. These two teams have been about as even historically as can be (Louisville holds a slight lead over Tampa Bay in this series 8 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats). But this year is a completely different story. Louisville in the league seem to be their usual selves, still unbeaten on the season, while Tampa Bay have been stuck in the bottom of the Eastern Conference for some time now. And yet, I still have some small part of me saying that the Rowdies could play up for this match. Over the last five meetings, they have each been BTTS, over 2.5 goals, with Tampa Bay winning three of those meetings. But I just don’t see this Tampa Bay team getting a win against Louisville. The Kentucky club makes it another professional performance to bounce back from their defeat against Loudoun. I offer two possible wagers:
Bet 1: Louisville win, over 1.5 total goals (1.95)
Bet 2: Louisville win, BTTS (3.60)
New Mexico v Colorado Springs
2.10 - 3.30 - 3.20
This matchup is shockingly one of the most one-sided affairs in USLC at the moment. In 17 all-time meetings, New Mexico has won 12, including the last three (the Switchbacks’ last win came in April 2023). Colorado Springs has still yet to pick up a victory away at New Mexico as well. Quietly, NMU has now found themselves back with a familiar spot in the Elo ratings, atop the conference (as they are atop the table as well), as the falter in form Dennis Sanchez’s side had at the start of May has seemingly subsided (their loss on penalties in the Jagermeister Cup notwithstanding though).
Colorado Springs have won two of their last three games (each by 1-0 scorelines), but I think this New Mexico side is still quite good while Colorado Springs still needs to find a consistent goalscoring form again (they have not scored over 1.5 goals in a match since April 23, and none in a win since April 16).
Bet 1: New Mexico to win, Colorado Springs under 1.5 goals (2.30)
Bet 2: New Mexico to score in both halves (3.40)
San Antonio v Las Vegas
1.66 - 3.70 - 4.50
In a series that started out with some high-scoring classics (the first four games were BTTS/over 2.5 goals, three of which were over 3.5 goals), the recent history however has seen this matchup give way to more low-scoring games as only one of the last seven games have been over 2.5 goals (though four of those seven games have been BTTS). However, Las Vegas is in total free fall at the moment. The Lights have seemingly dimmed, having lost their last four games being outscored 12-1 in that time. If the defense is not working, this Lights team does not have the attack that instills me with confidence of them getting a result (they still have yet to have a USLC match this year where they have scored multiple goals and got a point at minimum from it).
San Antonio by comparison did not have an amazing month of May, no wins in that time, but they did pick up two draws against Rhode Island and Tulsa, but a loss to Oakland at home certainly stands out as a bad scoreline. I don’t see Las Vegas winning this game, and the odds on this match will really lie with how many goals you think this game has. Given how leaky the Lights defense has been in recent weeks, I could see a match where SAFC puts a few goals past them, but let’s follow the series history and go under for goals again.
Bet: San Antonio win or tie, Under 2.5 goals (2.00)
Monterey Bay v Lexington
2.20 - 3.50 - 2.87
Over the last two weeks, Lexington has seen their losing streak reach an end with two consecutive draws (of BTTS no less), but the side is still winless since March. In one of their furthest road trips of the season, Lexington make the trip to Monterey Bay, a team with back-to-back Jagermeister Cup wins last week against Spokane and Orange County, putting the club in a favorable position to advance out of their group. It was also the first time since March that MBFC had won back to back games. Those two performances has restored a lot of faith in Monterey Bay for myself that I just can’t see Lexington getting a result in this match. This fixture was 0-0 when these two teams met in April, with Lexington having more of the shots on the night, but I think the hosts have the advantage in this match.
Bet 1: Monterey Bay win or tie, Over 1.5 goals (1.80)
Bet 2: Monterey Bay to score first (1.72)
Oakland v El Paso
3.00 - 3.60 - 2.10
One match to keep an eye on this weekend is this Oakland v El Paso game. Historically, the Roots have dominated this series (5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss versus Locomotive all-time). But all of that falls aside given that Oakland enter this match with a new manager. Having parted ways with Gavin Glinton earlier this week, with the former Sporting Kansas City player and USMNT national, Benny Feilhaber, has taken the helm at the Coliseum for the Roots.
El Paso saw their unbeaten run of six games against USL opposition in the league or Jagermeister, reach an end last week against Colorado Springs. But I have been still very impressed with how well Wilmer Cabrera’s team has turned things around this season versus their performance of last year. A new manager bounce may be on the cards to offer an enticing upset wager for the Roots, but I think El Paso at minimum, get a result on the road.
Bet: El Paso win or tie (1.36)
Phoenix v Orange County
2.15 - 3.40 - 3.00
These two teams have played each other a whopping 34 times since having become fellow USL clubs together. In that span, Phoenix have won 15 times, to Orange County’s 10 victories (and 9 draws). Dating back to 2022, only two of the previous seven meetings have ended in draws as well. But one hallmark of both of these teams (in this series and this year), have been goals. Just three games for Orange County and four games for Phoenix this year, have ended under 2.5 goals. These two teams seem to enjoy scoring plenty of goals, with porous defense that let them down (both teams are in the bottom half of the West in goals allowed). We could be in for a fun match this weekend and let’s root for pushing the total goals a bit.
Bet: BTTS, over 3.5 goals (3.75)
Sacramento v Tulsa
1.57 - 3.75 - 5.25
Maybe we should not overreact to Sacramento beating Las Vegas back-to-back in 5-0 and 4-0 performances, but I do believe being unbeaten in their last six games against USL opposition has classified the Republic as being “back.” But, their opponents this weekend are a side who got their first ever win against Sacramento back in March, a Tulsa team with only one win in their last six games played as well. The opening goal of this match is going to massive, as both teams have still yet to lose when scoring first in a match this season. Last time, I went against the history of this series and picked Tulsa to get their first ever win over Sacramento back in March, but I think Republic have re-found their form once more and won’t let Tulsa do the double on them in the league this year. Just a simple results bet on this one.
Bet: Sacramento to win (1.57)
USL1
Chattanooga v Portland
2.70 - 3.30 - 2.30
That win, off the back of a stellar goalkeeping performance by Kashope Oladapo, by Portland Hearts of Pine over Detroit in the Jagermeister Cup last week felt like the performance we have been waiting for out of this team. It was a 4-2 victory for the Maine club. Chattanooga in their Jagermeister Cup match won on penalties against Madison at home after a 1-1 scoreline at 90’. The Chattanooga “Burnley FC” Red Wolves have gone unbeaten for their last four matches against USL1 opposition, their longest streak since August 2022. It would be such a peak Chattanooga performance to have their opponent entering into the match riding a high, only to been drawn into a tightly-contested, low scoring match. I’m taking the hosts to make it five in a row unbeaten in a low scoring contest.
Bet: Chattanooga win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.37)
Greenville v Naples
2.45 - 3.40 - 2.45
The first ever meeting of the “We Beat Charleston in the Jagermeister Cup Derby” (still workshopping the name lol), takes place this weekend. Greenville pulled out a massive aforementioned win over Charleston in the cup last week, 1-0 away to get their first win since April 5th, ending a six match winless run. Naples last time out lost to nearby opponents, Miami FC, after having led 2-1 in the second half, only to lose 3-2 in the end. I think this is a match where Naples get back on track and the Triumph return to making me question who this team is again, this season. With the last four Naples games having gone over 2.5 goals, I like the visitors to get a result with the goals.
Bet: Naples win or tie, over 2.5 goals (3.20)
Richmond v Texoma
1.53 - 4.50 - 4.20
Having sat idle last weekend, Texoma enters this match on two week’s rest, and are meeting a Richmond team who have gone eight matches without a win (none since April 9th) and could use a bounce back result. But has Texoma started to find their form and could the expansion side push things to make it three wins on the bounce? Surely not, right? I have to back Richmond to come into this match ready to play and put an end to this run of bad form, and pick up all three points in this match.
Bet: Richmond to win (1.53)
Westchester v Knoxville
2.45 - 3.30 - 2.50
Oh Westchester, that’s now five consecutive matches across all competitions that they have scored the opening goal, but could not see their way to three points in the end. It’s now happened six times on the season already, as Westchester are still searching for their first win since March. Knoxville themselves has been looking for their first win in 90’ since April 19th, as they sat idle last weekend of the Jagermeister Cup. I almost tempted to do another parlay of Westchester to score first and to not win, so I will offer that as one of the wagers of the weekend, but I do think Knoxville getting a result is the most likely outcome this weekend.
Bet 1: Knoxville win or tie (1.44)
Bet 2: Westchester to score first, Knoxville win or tie (5.00)
Tormenta v Charlotte
2.20 - 3.30 - 2.75
It seemed to have gone rather unnoticed, but Tormenta has now slipped to the bottom of the USL1 Elo ratings table in recent weeks, off the back of three losses in a row in the league for the first time since August 2022. Charlotte meanwhile continues to score goals for fun and have brought about many of the results to back up the attack, having gone unbeaten for six of their last seven games played. It’s carried the Independence to within touching distance of first in the league. The last nine meetings of these two clubs have seen BTTS, with five of those games going over 2.5 goals.
These two sides met back in April in a 3-2 Charlotte victory, and I think Charlotte get a repeat performance of another high-scoring match that ends with the Independence taking all three points.
Bet: Charlotte win, over 2.5 goals (4.00)
Charlotte to win at plus odds (underdog odds no less) might even be the easier move to make (2.75)
Madison v Omaha
3.00 - 3.25 - 2.15
Perhaps the weekend off for Omaha has let the club sort out their slow start to the season, as the reigning champions did not participate in the Jagermeister Cup matches of last weekend. Madison meanwhile has made it an astounding seven consecutive matches against USL1 clubs that have ended in a draw. Seemingly, a draw (and likely under 2.5 goals) should be our wager for this match, right?
Bet: Draw, under 2.5 goals (4.00)
Bet: 1-1 scoreline is odds of 6.50
AV Alta v Spokane
3.00 - 3.30 - 2.10
I will admit, I was probably too confident in Spokane last week to call them getting a win over Monterey Bay in the Jagermeister Cup, as they fell 1-0 to the USLC side. One match I did however call last week was AV Alta to get a result against Oakland, which the USL1 side ended up achieving on penalties. AV Alta enter this match unbeaten in their last four games, but the story will be how well do you think Spokane can regain their form in USL1 play. This is my pick for the match of the weekend for USL1, a bit of USL1 After Dark for us East Coast USL fans, so picking Spokane to win this match to close out the weekend.
Bet: Spokane to win (2.10)
USL Super League Playoffs:
After an exciting first season of the USL Super League, we have reached the two semifinals of the playoffs. Carolina Ascent practically controlled the league #1 seed all through the Spring had the spot wrapped up with a few weeks to spare. Tampa Bay Sun have been ever consistent all year at the #2 seed, while #3 Dallas and #4 Fort Lauderdale confirmed their spots last week on the final matchday. Will we see any potential upsets in these two games or will the favorites prevail? Check out the betting odds for those two semifinals below, and my parlay pick!
Carolina v Fort Lauderdale
No odds as of writing
Tampa Bay v Dallas
1.72 - 3.70 - 3.90
Parlay: Carolina and Tampa Bay to qualify
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Louisville, Sacramento, Rhode Island ML (3.40)
Charleston, Monterey Bay ML (4.95)
Richmond, Spokane (3.22)
BTTS/Goals Parlay:
Loudoun v Charleston, Phoenix v Orange County both BTTS (3.05)
Pittsburgh v Detroit, San Antonio v Las Vegas both under 2.5 goals (2.62)
Chattanooga v Portland and Madison v Omaha both under 2.5 goals (3.02)
Richmond v Texoma and Tormenta v Charlotte both over 2.5 goals (2.72)
Underdog Parlay:
Charlotte ML, Naples win or tie (3.97)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 14.59
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
MLS:
DC v Chicago BTTS and over 2.5 goals (1.95)
LAFC ML and Vancouver v Seattle BTTS (2.52)
Portland ML and match over 1.5 goals (1.90)
Other Sports:
Friday MLB/College Baseball
Coastal Carolina at Auburn over 10.5 runs (1.83)
Louisville and Oregon State ML (2.53)
Mets -1.5 spread at Rockies (1.54)
Royals and Diamondbacks ML (3.05)
Phillies ML v Pirates (1.71)
NBA Finals
Indiana +11 spread (1.90)
Stanley Cup Finals Game Two:
Both teams to score 3 goals or more (2.70)
Florida to win game two (1.86)
NASCAR at Michigan - FireKeepers Casino 400
Over 2.5 Ford drivers in the top ten
William Byron top ten finish (1.44)
Denny Hamlin top five finish (1.90)
Kyle Larson to beat Tyler Reddick h2h (1.66)
Christopher Bell to beat Chase Elliott h2h (1.76)
Ryan Preece to win Group F - Preece v Jones, Suarez, Dillon (2.50)
Final Thoughts
It’s happening next Wednesday, but I feel the need to call attention to it now, the Durham Bulls of Triple-A baseball, are doing a promotion called “Whisker Wednesday” at their home game on June 11th. At this game, fans will be able to bring their pet Cats to the game (on a leash or in a carrier). This will be a glorious mess that I cannot wait to see the highlights of. I am asking any USL club to test out this promotion for a match this season. Please.
Well, after two and a half weeks of speculation since Tottenham Hotspur’s triumph in the Europa League final, the club today announced the departure of Ange Postecoglou as manager. The official statement ended up being a stadium exterior shot. I will certainly miss Ange as manager, he gave me arguably the best memory of my Tottenham Hotspur supporting lifetime with the Europa League title in Bilbao, ending our trophy drought. But the league form was horrid and really tough to overlook. Ange’s legacy at Spurs is a complicated one, and perhaps I will write an article over the next few days to put into words fully, my feelings over the change.
I saw the first John Wick (2014) movie earlier this week. I had somehow never seen any of the films of the franchise and frankly, I enjoyed the first one. This will be quite fun to watch-through over the next few weeks, mixed in with my watch-through of the Alien and Predator franchises. Really excited to check out Predator: Killer of Killers (2025) on Hulu soon as well.
Finally, I recently eclipsed the 200 mile mark for my total miles run in 2025. Here’s to more runs to come!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.