USL Odds, June 29
How is 2024 already half over?
Euros reaching the knockout rounds this weekend, Copa America completing their group stage—and the US Men’s National Team finishing off their tournament in two group stage games oof—the Jagermeiester Cup hosting another weekend of play, and more action from the USL Championship. The most important competitions in the world happening this weekend as we close out the month of June.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, June 28th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Tampa Bay to win (1.83), North Carolina win or tie and under 3 goals scored (2.37), Greenville to win (2.70), Chattanooga v Tormenta over 2.5 goals (1.50), a parlay of Greenville/Northern Colorado to win and Chattanooga v Tormenta over 2.5 goals (8.91), USA to win to nil and Christian Pulisic to score (3.40), Tennessee to win the College World Series 2-1 in games (3.50)
Elo Ratings
*Of note, Jagermeister Cup matches are not factored into Elo rating calculations.
USL Championship
Charleston v North Carolina
1.65 - 3.60 - 4.20
It’s been four consecutive matches without a goal for Charleston, and winless in their last five. 363’ since their last goal, a little over 6 hours—or the equivalent watch time of both Spider-Man 1 and Spider-Man 2 of the Raimi trilogy, and the first half of Spider-Man 3. Something has to change for the Battery and quick, the club is reaching a goalless drought typically unheard for their history. Meanwhile, North Carolina have kept six clean sheets on the year, and already a 0-0 draw vs Charleston to start the season.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.85)
Memphis v Phoenix
1.85 - 3.40 - 3.70
Despite only two all-time meetings, when these teams face off, goals are plentiful. Phoenix beat Memphis 6-0 nearly one year ago to the day, while Memphis won the match 3-1 when hosting Phoenix in 2022. Memphis at home is the third best team in the West and are unbeaten in their last five home games. Phoenix meanwhile has just one win away from home this season, winless in their last four road games.
Bet: Memphis to win, over 1 total goal scored (2.30)
Miami v Detroit
4.33 - 3.30 - 1.72
Detroit took their first defeat at home on the season in midweek as Birmingham picked up a come from behind win at Keyworth. However, it cannot be overstated just how bad Miami FC is as a team this year. Their Elo rating is already at risk of dropping below 1000 and we’re not even at the halfway mark of the season. Detroit in spite of winning their last road game, went their previous four road games without a win. If you can find good value in it, bet Detroit to win this weekend, maybe even BTTS.
Bet: Detroit to win, BTTS (3.75)
Birmingham v Louisville
3.20 - 3.50 - 1.95
Birmingham had a huge performance over the weekend to win at a ground who’s hosts were unbeaten at all season, as the Alabama club turns their attention to the league leaders coming to town. In this series all-time, Birmingham have played out tough games hosting Louisville historically. In the five all-time meetings played in Birmingham, Louisville have won two of them but none since 2021. What Louisville is good at though, is keeping Birmingham from scoring. After their first meeting from 2019, Birmingham have failed to score more more than two goals against Louisville in games. Louisville is still scoring for fun, but a trip to Birmingham is going to be a tricky one.
Bet: BTTS (1.72)
Loudoun v Tampa Bay
3.60 - 3.60 - 1.80
Tampa Bay absolutely controls this series against Loudoun, having won eight games all-time against the Virginia club—versus just one Loudoun victory against Tampa Bay, back in 2019. The Rowdies have won four of their last five, outscoring opponents 6-3 in that time. Loudoun are on a good run of form themselves, unbeaten in their last four games, keeping two clean sheets in that time.
Bet: BTTS, over 2 goals (2.05)
Colorado Springs v Monterey Bay
1.57 - 3.90 - 4.50
Oddly, there have been no draws in the all-time meetings of these two teams, four wins each across its history. Further weirdly, the home team has won every one of those matches. Colorado Springs have kept a clean sheet in each of their four wins against Monterey Bay—including three 1-0 results. Playing at home has always been one of the Switchback strengths, so let’s see if history can continue in form this weekend.
Bet: Colorado Springs win to nil (2.75)
San Antonio v New Mexico
2.00 - 3.30 - 3.20
San Antonio are going through a bit of crisis of moment, as the club finds itself 11th in the Western Conference, having lost their last four games. New Mexico has been flying high atop the West, led by our mid-season pick for Manager of the Year, Eric Quill. However, despite their first place standing, New Mexico’s form has been up and down in their last five games, losing two—both of which were on the road. New Mexico did beat San Antonio back in May 2-1, but have not won a road game against San Antonio since 2021.
Bet: New Mexico to win, over 1 goal (4.33)
Orange County v Oakland
2.10 - 3.30 - 3.00
The major news surrounding this game is that Orange County’s manager, Morten Karlsen is moving back to Denmark and joining Danish Superliga side, Lyngby, effective as of Tuesday, June 25th. Leaving Orange County on short notice for an interim manager, Paul Hardyman, the job at preparing to face Oakland. While Hardyman has been with Orange County since 2021, their title winning year, Oakland seem to be in a better spot right now to approach this game and walk away with three points. One hesitation is that Oakland has never won a match away at Orange County.
Bet: Oakland win or tie, BTTS (2.62)
Las Vegas v Pittsburgh
2.55 - 3.30 - 2.40
This will be the third ever match between the Lights and Riverhounds. Last time these two teams met in Las Vegas, it was a 1-0 victory for the Lights. Quietly, Las Vegas has gone unbeaten in their last five games, four of which were draws though, a feat they have not accomplished ever in their club history. Pittsburgh meanwhile have been in a rut, no wins in the last two months, eight matches. While they’ve kept two clean sheets in that time, including their last match, scoring has been an issue for the Riverhounds, as their have only been four goals in that span. Genuinely, this might be a sneaky good upset pick of the week for Las Vegas.
Bet: Las Vegas to win (2.55)
Sacramento v Hartford
1.45 - 3.90 - 6.00
Sacramento are still unbeaten at home this year, four wins and four draws. Hartford has just one win on the road this year, against El Paso. The long trek across the country for one of the furthest east teams of the league is always a question mark for how they will perform and I just have to back Sacramento to continue their unbeaten form at home.
Bet: Sacramento to win 2-0 (7.50)
USL1
*Jagermesiter Cup matches this week so games will be decided by penalties if drawn after 90’.
Charlotte v Richmond
2.20 - 3.40 - 2.75
The winner of this match will undoubtedly find themselves in the better spot for second in the group after this game. Charlotte won 1-0 against Richmond back on June 8th when these clubs met in the cup then too. Richmond as of late have had issues scoring, just one goal in their last three games. While Charlotte has looked better, last match being their first goalless game in six matches, it is a side I am not yet fully onboard with trusting.
Bet: Draw after 90’ played (3.40)
Greenville v Lexington
1.50 - 4.10 - 5.00
While Lexington are scoring goals, just one match in their last seven where they did not find the back of the net, Greenville are just another level better than the Kentucky club this year, especially in league play. Jagermesiter Cup matches have been kinder to Lexington, who have more Jagermeister wins than USL1 regular season wins, but I still expect Greenville to be the better side in this match.
Bet: Greenville to win, over 3 goals (3.40)
Knoxville v Madison
3.00 - 3.60 - 2.00
Madison’s defense this year has been phenomenal, and their win last week against Omaha might have been one of the club’s best all-around performances to date. Madison enter this match with three consecutive clean sheets and no goals allowed in the last 304’—or over five and a half hours of playing. You could watch all of Star Trek (2009), Star Trek Into Darkness and the first half of Star Trek Beyond in the amount of time since Madison last conceded a goal.
Bet: Madison win to 2-0 (9.00)
Northern Colorado v Spokane
2.10 - 3.30 - 3.00
Despite the sweltering temperatures hitting the nation right now, it is the team with “Hailstorm” in their name that is USL1’s hottest team right now. Northern Colorado have won their last four games across all competitions and are unbeaten in their last eight. They’ve taken advantage of their Jagermeister Cup games to sit atop the West division on nine points. While Spokane can frustrate teams, just one win away from home against USL1 opposition is cause for concern for the Velocity.
Bet: Northern Colorado to win (2.10)
Central Valley Fuego v Tormenta
3.10 - 3.75 - 1.90
A match that starts at 11pm Eastern Time? Check. A match where BTTS has hit in the last three meetings of these teams? Check. Each side rock bottom of their Jagermeister Cup group with no wins in this competition? Check. Something will have to give in this match as someone will pick up their first win of the cup. A result might be tough to pick, but goals should be promised in USL1 After Dark.
Bet: Over 3 goals (2.30)
Parlays
Three Legs:
Birmingham v Louisville, Loudoun v Tampa Bay, San Antonio v New Mexico all over 2.5 goals (5.75)
Detroit, Louisville, Tampa Bay all to win (6.06)
Greenville, Madison and Northern Colorado all to win in 90’ (6.30)
Colorado Springs, Oakland, New Mexico all to win (10.56)
Four or more Legs:
Las Vegas or tie, Oakland or tie, New Mexico or tie, Louisville or tie (2.75)
Charlotte v Richmond, Greenville v Lexington, Northern Colorado v Spokane, Fuego v Tormenta all over 2.5 goals (7.74)
Detroit, Louisville, Tampa Bay, Sacramento all to win (8.79)
Las Vegas, New Mexico, Oakland, Colorado Springs all to win (38.46)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Bet 1: Germany and Switzerland to qualify for quarterfinals (2.82)
Bet 2: Hendrick Motorsports to win the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway (2.30)
Long term Euro bets for Knockouts:
Portugal to win (7.50)
Germany to reach semifinals (2.25)
Austria to reach semifinals (3.25)
England to be eliminated in the quarterfinals (3.25)
Other Random Thoughts:
The Bear season three just debuted on Hulu and I have watched the first three episodes of the season and have quite enjoyed it thus far. Particularly, it’s premiere episode was a good character study episode divided up into numerous vignettes.
Meanwhile, House of the Dragon season 2 on HBO Max has been excellent as well, a slower start to the season but one I expect to ramp up in on-screen conflict very soon.
With just two days left until the halfway point of 2024, looking at my current running stats, I have run 143 times for a total of 294.12 miles in 2024. Off pace from 2023, but still happy about how much I have run in this year so far.
Finally, I can already tell the discussion around the US Men’s National Team is going to be tiresome and exhausting, particularly surrounding Gregg Berhalter as manager. And we have not even gotten into the hiring process for his replacement once he is indeed sacked. It’s going to get a lot more exhausting once that process starts (Mauricio Pochettino for USMNT manager, who says no?).
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.