USL Odds, August 8
A couple of huge matches in the USLC this weekend...
It was a successful week for all of our picks from last week’s article, but can we repeat the performance this week? A couple of massive matches on the schedule this weekend—along the return of more European games in our non-USL wagers—makes this one of the best weekends for soccer as we move through August!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, August 8th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USLC: Tulsa ML, over 1.5 total goals (2.10), Indy Eleven v Tampa Bay BTTS (1.66), Pittsburgh win or tie and under 2.5 total goals (1.95), Louisville ML, Louisville to score first (1.80), El Paso ML (1.61), Phoenix v Birmingham BTTS, Over 2.5 total goals (2.05)
USL1: Chattanooga win or tie (1.60), Charlotte win or tie and over 2.5 goals (1.80), Naples win or tie and Over 2.5 goals (2.50), Tormenta v Greenville Over 2.5 total goals (1.80), Spokane ML and Over 2.5 goals (3.50)
USL2: Vermont ML
Parlays: Tulsa, Louisville ML (2.90) | Charlotte v Texoma, Richmond v Naples, Tormenta v Greenville all over 2.5 goals (5.08) | Indy Eleven v Tampa Bay and Phoenix v Birmingham each BTTS (2.69) | Tulsa v Loudoun over 1.5 goals and Louisville v North Carolina over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Beyond USL: Falkirk v Dundee United BTTS and Motherwell v Rangers over 1.5 total goals (2.00), Cardiff City ML (1.66), Brewers ML (1.66), Bellinger and McMahon (both NY) 1+ total bases each (2.00), Schwarber over 0.5 total bases (1.66), Pirates at Rockies over 11.5 total runs (1.86), Horwitz over 1.5 total bases, Reynolds 1+ hits (2.20), Braves ML (1.76), Norris to win outright (2.00), Chase Briscoe top ten finish (1.80), Bubba Wallace to beat Kyle Busch h2h (1.95), William Byron to beat Tyler Reddick h2h (1.50)
A very good previous week for us, let’s keep the momentum going!
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Lexington v Phoenix
1.75 - 3.75 - 4.00
What looked like a team who had things figured out in June, has now returned to their cold form in July, as Lexington have gone four matches in a row without a win (and without scoring more than one goal in each of those four games). Perhaps Lexington’s recent struggles could be attributed to having had to play three of their four most recent games on the road, Lexington’s last victory came on July 4th, against their opponents this weekend, Phoenix Rising—who have been inconsistent themselves as of late. Phoenix enter this match with just one win their previous five games played, but four of those five games have been BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
I think who gets the result in this match entirely depends on how many goals you think this match produces. The offense for Lexington has been a worry as of late with how few goals they are producing, especially since Phoenix has scored eight goals in their last five games played. If you think this game goes over 2.5 goals, it might very well be Phoenix walking away with all three points. But perhaps Lexington being back at home restores some confidence into this team, as they have just one defeat in their last four home games. Might be the most challenging match of the weekend to wager. I’ll lean on the visitors double chance here as the value is better.
Bet: Phoenix win or tie (2.00)
Detroit v Indy Eleven
1.83 - 3.70 - 3.70
I have officially hit my panic button on Detroit City in road games, a match midweek saw them lose 0-1 to Rhode Island in a game where they may consider themselves unlucky not to get at least a point from it (it’s now one win in their previous eleven league games). However, Detroit at home has always been a tough place to enter and leave with a point, especially since Indy Eleven has only done so once in their history (March 2023) and have never scored multiple goals in a match at Keyworth too.
Indy Eleven has seen their side go through some up and down form in recent weeks, they’ll pick up back-to-back “win to nils” in the league against Monterey Bay and Rhode Island, but then have high-scoring losses to North Carolina and Tampa Bay. Away from home, Indy Eleven have not won a league game since June 4th, and have not scored multiple goals away in a match where they picked up at least a point, since March. This could very well be a much-needed “get right” game for Detroit City, but the winner of this match might very well just be glad to put some distance between themselves and the playoff line.
Bet: Detroit win or tie, Under 2.5 goals (2.30)
Miami v El Paso
3.20 - 3.50 - 2.05
El Paso are off the back of their highest margin of victory in a match in club history last week, as they put up a 6-0 win over a then manager-less Las Vegas team, which should surely spark some confidence into the Locomotive. Miami have now looked like the Miami of old, with no wins in any of their last eight games played, dating back to June, and took a recent midweek loss away at Hartford. Miami have not scored multiple goals in a game since July 5th as well (a rather surprising 2-2 draw with Tulsa).
In the league, Miami have gone unbeaten in five of their previous six games played at home, so this is still a tough journey to make for numerous sides in USL (El Paso’s last trip to Miami was in 2023 which saw Locomotive lose 0-4). I think this game goes over 2.5 goals at minimum, but if you want to find decent odds, adding on El Paso to finally get a win in South Beach, should is plus odds.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.75)
Pittsburgh v Orange County
1.72 - 3.20 - 4.75
It’s always a season of patience for the Pittsburgh Riverhounds whenever they embark on a new campaign. Every year, it seems we start to question the side when they began the year slowly (like they did with just two wins in their first nine games). But come the heart of the schedule, the Riverhounds always seem to rise to the occasion and quietly move their way into a comfortable playoff position—particularly as of late since Pittsburgh are unbeaten in their last six league games entering this match.
Orange County enter this game with just one defeat in their last five league games, with a pair of 4 goal performances in wins over Las Vegas and Phoenix in their last matches played in the league. But OCSC have been dreadful away from home this year—just one victory away from home in the league all season. That’s not the record you want to see out of a club about to enter one of the toughest home environments in all of USL, particularly a venue where the hosts stifle any and all attack from their opponents. Straightforward bet this match, Pittsburgh double chance and under 2.5 goals again.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, Under 2.5 goals (1.70)
Rhode Island v Loudoun
1.85 - 3.70 - 3.70
Rhode Island picked up a massive 1-0 victory over Detroit in the midweek to get them back above the playoff cutline (and not a moment too soon as Hartford are closing fast behind them, more on that later)—it was Rhode Island’s first win to nil since May and first win in the league since June. Loudoun meanwhile are having a ‘LADS protocol’ like meltdown as it has now been eight matches since their last win inside 90’. Shockingly, the Virginia club still finds themselves in third in the Eastern Conference (a testament to their stellar start to the season). That being said, Loudoun’s last two instances of dropped points came at the result of a 90+’ stoppage concession of a goal, so perhaps they are still very unlucky here.
All things being considered, this has been a worrying trend for Loudoun to continue, and at home, I have to imagine Rhode Island at minimum gets a result in this game, but we might be about to witness a low-scoring game (under 2.5 goals has hit in four of the last five RIFC games).
Bet: Rhode Island win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.60)
North Carolina v Tampa Bay
2.10 - 3.40 - 3.10
Each of these teams could really use a win in this match. For North Carolina, who have just one win in their previous five games played, a victory could move them back into the driver’s seat for third in the Eastern Conference. For Tampa Bay, who are trying to make it three wins in a row in the league on the road for the first time since July 2022, a win could see them back into the playoff top eight, if results go their way.
This series all-time has been one of the most even to be played, even dating back to these sides’ old NASL days. The last eight matches between these clubs, all occurring since they moved to USL, have gone over 1.5 goals. In fact, the visiting team has won five of those eight meetings, but Tampa Bay have not won in Cary, NC since September 2018—when Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2018) was still in theaters. When both teams could use a win, I think each team finding a goal is a solid bet, but it might result in an outcome that leaves both sides unhappy.
Bet: Draw, BTTS (4.75)
Birmingham v Hartford
1.95 - 3.70 - 3.20
Something is different about this Hartford team right now. The side has clawed its way back into the playoff picture, now just one point behind 8th, and has rescued it’s goal difference back to even. xG wise, Hartford has been one of the league’s best in recent weeks as well, this is all looking like the Brendan Burke teams of old, that they are looking like one of the more in-form teams of the league as of late. Birmingham in recent weeks has somewhat disappeared from the public discussion, just one win in the league since July, and are now level on points with Hartford. Still, three of the last five games Birmingham has been involved in, has gone over 2.5 goals (including last week’s chaotic 3-3 tie with Phoenix).
In this series all-time, Hartford has never won in Birmingham before, but this Hartford Athletic side just seems like they have everything breaking their way in recent weeks.
Bet: Hartford win or tie (1.72)
Louisville v Charleston
2.05 - 3.20 - 3.60
If you watch any match this weekend, or could only watch one match this weekend, make sure it is this one. Whenever these two Eastern Conference heavyweights face, there are bound to be fireworks. This is a game that will go a long way in determining the fate of the top spot in the Eastern Conference, and likely will set the tone for who wins the players’ shield this season. These are the best two teams in the league right now as per my Elo ratings (with ratings that put these sides on track to be the best teams of all-time…).
Incredibly, in their entire time in USL together, the Charleston Battery has never won a match away at Louisville before. Louisville of course has still yet to take a defeat at home this season as well. But you have to imagine Charleston—winners of four in a row, unbeaten in their last seven games—will put up one hell of a fight against the current Eastern Conference leaders. In six of the eleven games at Lynn Family Stadium this year across all competitions vs USL opposition, we have seen BTTS (including four of the last five). When these sides met on the opening matchday back in March, it was Louisville walking away with all three points in Charleston, 2-1. Louisville should rightfully be favored in this game, and likely could be the ones to grab the opening goal (as they have done in eight of their previous eleven home games). To be absolutely safe, I am going for a simple goals wager as this should be a fun one, but adding on prop bets or possibly even Charleston to get their first win away at Louisville could be where the value in the odds lie.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Possibly bet Charleston win or tie at 1.72 odds, while Louisville to score the opening goal is 1.72.
Tulsa v New Mexico
2.00 - 2.90 - 4.00
Tulsa keeps finding a way to get a result, and the midweek was no different—it was the eleventh time this year across all competitions that Tulsa trailed at some point in the game and managed to take a draw or win the game in 90’—as they beat Monterey Bay 3-2 in the midweek. This Tulsa team is on a run of their best season in club history and have a comfortable lead atop the Western Conference right now (table and Elo Ratings). Perhaps New Mexico, no wins in their previous five games played, are looking at Tulsa right now as the season they should be having. It’s been over a week since we last saw New Mexico and they could surely have used the rest as last time out was a 0-4 defeat away at Hartford, their largest defeat since September 2024.
Tomorrow night, this is a really interesting match to check out on the weekend, as Tulsa are looking for their first win over New Mexico since October 2019—as all the games of this series has been BTTS and five of the six all-time meetings have been over 2.5 goals. And I think Tulsa get the result to pile on to New Mexico’s woes, and further their lead atop the West.
Bet: Tulsa ML, BTTS (4.33)
Though Tulsa ML at just 2.00 is enticing enough.
Oakland v Colorado Springs
3.00 - 3.40 - 2.10
This is one of the more one-sided matchups in the Western Conference historically, Colorado Springs has only lost to Oakland once all-time (June 2023). The Switchbacks have not conceded a goal to Oakland in any of their four previous meetings, 405’ and counting—or enough time to watch the entire Star Wars Original Trilogy in its entirety and add on a Star Wars: The Clone Wars episode as well, since the Switchbacks last conceded to Oakland. A win in this match for either club could bring them above the playoff cutline and back into the heart of the playoff race in the West.
Colorado Springs have caught good form lately, having won their last three games in a row across all competitions, looking like the side we expected out of the defending league champions. Oakland however have looked much improved under Feilhaber, having won four of their previous six games played, with three shutouts in that time and only failing to score, once. Oakland might finally end their goalless drought against Colorado Springs this weekend, but this Switchbacks team have been scoring goals for fun as of late, outscoring opponents 10-4 in their previous five games played. I lean the way of the visitors to get the result here.
Bet: Colorado Springs win or tie, Colorado Springs to score first (1.90)
Las Vegas v San Antonio
3.10 - 3.40 - 2.05
It’s a new era in Las Vegas, as they have just recently hired Charleston Battery assistant coach, Devin Rensing, as their next manager—check out John Morrissey’s article diving into the hire! Off the back of a 0-6 defeat, reminiscent of the Las Vegas Lights teams of old (it’s their heaviest defeat since April 2024 which came coincidentally, against Charleston), Rensing will have his work cut out for him taking over the team rock bottom in the Western Conference.
San Antonio might not be the best opponent for Las Vegas to face if a ‘new managers bounce’ is what they are hoping for, the Lights have only beaten San Antonio twice all-time, and just once in the previous six meetings. San Antonio enter this match having scored a goal in each of their previous seven games played, and have just two defeats in their previous ten games (including a 3-0 win over Las Vegas in that time). It might just be a *bit* too early to expect anything major out of Las Vegas to get a result so early, but perhaps the new manager for the Lights kickstarts something for the club, so let’s back BTTS, something that has happened on four of San Antonio’s six trips to Las Vegas (and let’s add on San Antonio grabbing the opening goal too, something they have done in five of their last six games).
Bet: BTTS, San Antonio to score first (3.20)
Sacramento v Monterey Bay
1.45 - 4.10 - 6.00
A California derby to close off the night of USLC action, as Sacramento hosts Monterey Bay. Sacramento has not lost a match against Monterey Bay since August 2022 (8 MCU movies ago) and has not lost to Monterey Bay at home since July 2019 (15 MCU movies ago). Monterey Bay enter this match with seven defeats in their last eight games played across all competitions—though each of their last seven games played have gone over 2.5 goals in that time. Sacramento are unbeaten in their previous five games played, winning four of them and have not lost at home since June (0-1 against Tulsa). Sacramento has also conceded just four goals in their previous nine games played (keeping six clean sheets in that time).
I think this match might very well be the game that ends Monterey Bay’s run of being involved in an eighth over 2.5 goals game in a row, and Sacramento wins keeping another clean sheet.
Bet: Sacramento win to nil (2.20)
USL1
Portland v Richmond
1.66 - 3.60 - 4.10
Richmond are one of the most out of form teams in USL1 right now, having lost their previous five games played across all competitions—and having been outscored 1-12 in that time (with three of those five games going over 2.5 goals). With just two wins dating back to April, this team has struggle more than I can remember the Kickers struggling in recent history of the club. Portland currently sits on just one spot outside the playoff picture at the moment, though a loss to Knoxville last week ended their run of five games unbeaten up until then—though shout-out to Hearts of Pine for beating Canadian Premier League team, Halifax Wanderers 2-1 in an international friendly this week too!
With Richmond so out of form, it is really hard for me to find a reason to back this club to win this game, especially as they visit a Hearts of Pine team who have loss just once at home against USL1 opposition all season. Portland should be the better side, but finding where the goals are scored will be the key for this game. I think we may see Portland likely to find the opening goal, but not until the second half (as their last six goals scored across their previous four games, have come in the second half). For this match, I offer two wagers, not parlayed.
Bet 1: Halftime/Fulltime result - Draw at half, Portland Wins (4.75)
Bet 2: Portland to score first (1.57)
Charlotte v Greenville
2.55 - 3.25 - 2.40
This series, in their 13 all-time previous matches, has *still* yet to have seen a draw, Charlotte leads the all-time series 7-6. The last three meetings between these teams has resulted in a trio of 1-0 scorelines. The last three Charlotte games have been over 2.5 goals with four of the last five Greenville games going over 2.5 goals as well, each team having gone unbeaten in their previous three games played (unbeaten in their previous five games played). This game surely gets another result with a winner in it to continue the weirdest matchup streak in USL1? Backing the hosts in this one.
Bet: Charlotte ML (2.55)
Omaha v Chattanooga
1.70 - 3.60 - 3.90
Chattanooga have not won three games in a row on the road since May 2021, they have not gone unbeaten for three consecutive road games since August 2022! But this is a different Red Wolves team, one that is frustrating to face and one that has scored the first goal in each of their last nine games played (going unbeaten in their previous seven games). Omaha picked up a much-needed win over Westchester in the midweek, 2-1 as they got their first win in the league in nearly a month’s time. Recent meetings between these two teams have been strangely high-scoring, as six of their last eight games played have gone over 2.5 goals.
Do you think Chattanooga can make it ten games in a row scoring the opening goal, or will Omaha shatter that streak? Given the odds, let’s go with the better value and pick the Red Wolves to make it ten in a row scoring the first goal.
Bet: Chattanooga to score first (2.50)
Naples v Texoma
1.85 - 3.50 - 3.50
Naples seems to keep quietly picking up results in the league and have nestled themselves into a comfortable top six spot in the league right now. The Floridian club have won back-to-back games for the first time since April, and will look to make it three wins in a row in the league for the first time in club history. Texoma meanwhile has climbed into a playoff spot at long last for the club, but still has the indelible mark of the most goals allowed of any team currently in a playoff spot—the last three games Texoma has played has been over 2.5 goals too.
Naples I believe should make it another win to reach that three-in-a-row mark this weekend, though adding on over 2.5 goals could make these odds even better.
Bet: Naples ML (1.85)
Madison v Knoxville
2.45 - 3.10 - 2.60
This game has historically been one of many draws, five of the all-time nine meetings have been ties, with eight of the all-time games being under 2.5 goals. Knoxville’s mark of just 14 goals allowed is outstanding in the league this season, but Madison’s mark of 19 goals allowed rounds out the top five in the league for top defenses. This has the makings of another low-scoring, tightly contest affair. Honestly, let’s pick a draw in this one and for it to once more go under 2.5 goals, for the historical streak.
Bet: Draw, Under 2.5 goals (3.75)
Spokane v AV Alta
1.80 - 3.30 - 3.90
Spokane needed that 2-1 win over Omaha they had last weekend. After what had a bit of a wobble to end the month of July, the league leaders in the table got back to winning ways last time out. This match might be the game to watch for USL1 this weekend, as AV Alta enter this game with just one defeat in their last 14 games played—with eight of those games played going over 2.5 goals too. This might very well be a match where you could find value in the visitors getting at least a point out of the game, but let’s go with seeing plenty of goals in this USL1 end of night game.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.85)
Westchester v Tormenta
No odds as of writing
Westchester has to be either the most unlucky or most cursed team in USL1 this year, as once more during the midweek in a 1-2 loss to Omaha, they scored the opening goal only to lose the match in the end. Seriously, it was the tenth time this season that Westchester scored first and failed to win. It has almost become one of my automatic live-bet wagers where I watch for Westchester’s opening goal, then bet on their opponents double chance. In the midweek as well, Tormenta, took a 1-2 loss to Naples themselves, but it meant that it was the ninth game in their last eleven played that saw a Tormenta match go over 2.5 goals. It resulted in Tormenta’s Ian Cameron stepping down as manager today, which is never a good sign the day before a match.
This has a chance to be one of the most silly games to close out the weekend, I think over 2.5 goals is a safe option, but let’s have Westchester scoring first as well (just watch for a live bet on Tormenta win or tie after Westchester score first, lol). That being said, Westchester sorely needs a win and if they can’t beat a team who just saw their manager depart…
Bet: Westchester score first, Over 2.5 goals
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Tulsa, Sacramento ML (2.90)
Spokane, Portland, Naples ML (5.55)
Louisville, Pittsburgh, El Paso ML (7.25)
BTTS/ Goals Over or Under Parlay:
Miami v El Paso, North Carolina v Tampa Bay and Louisville v Charleston all BTTS (4.79)
Detroit v Indy Eleven and Pittsburgh v Orange County both under 2.5 goals (2.83)
Charlotte v Greenville and Naples v Texoma both over 2.5 goals (3.33)
Madison v Knoxville under 2.5 goals and Sacramento v Monterey Bay not BTTS (2.60)
Underdog Parlay:
Hartford win or tie, Phoenix win or tie (3.40)
Charlotte ML, Knoxville win or tie (3.68)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 18.88
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USL1 Parlay: 3.66
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
England/Scotland:
Southampton v Wrexham BTTS (1.90)
QPR win or tie v Preston, Coventry ML (2.35)
West Bromwich Albion ML v Blackburn (1.83)
Luton Town ML v Peterborough (1.85)
Lincoln City or tie v Wimbledon, Exeter v Blackpool BTTS (2.38)
Notts County ML v Salford City (2.00)
Hiberniani ML, Rangers ML, Dundee United v Hearts BTTS (3.30)
Aberdeen v Celtic BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (1.90)
MLS:
Philadelphia ML, Philadelphia to score first (1.61)
Cincinnati win or tie v Charlotte, BTTS (1.86)
Nashville ML v St Louis City (2.10)
Montreal v Atlanta and New England v DC both BTTS (2.50)
San Jose v Vancouver, BTTS, over 2.5 goals, Brian White goal or assist anytime (2.40)
Other Sports:
Friday MLB:
Reds ML at Pirates (1.80)
Astros at Yankees over 7.5 runs (1.86)
Guardians and Phillies ML parlay (3.03)
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 2+ total bases (2.10)
Bo Bichette (TOR) 1+ hit, 1+ RBI (2.55)
Preseason NFL (if you’re really a sicko for it…):
Browns at Panthers under 33.5 points (1.90)
It’s a cool and rainy day here in Charlotte, today. Shedeur Sanders will feature mostly as the Cleveland quarterback today.
Bills -2.5 vs Giants (1.86)
Chiefs -2.5 at Cardinals (1.83)
NASCAR - Go Bowling At The Glen - Watkins Glen
Another road course this weekend and the third to final race of NASCAR’s regular season before the start of the NASCAR playoffs. Given the timing of all three series’ races this weekend, I offer bets for each the Cup, xFinity, and Truck series races.
Mission 176 at The Glen (Truck Series)
Christopher Bell top three (1.80)
Connor Zilisch to beat Corey Heim h2h (1.86)
Mission 200 at The Glen (xFinity series)
Picks made pre-qualifying
Sheldon Creed top five finish (2.75)
Connor Zilisch to win outright (2.10)
Go Bowling at The Glen (Cup series)
Picks made pre-qualifying
Shane Van Gisbergen to win pole position (2.25)
Christopher Bell to beat William Byron h2h (1.86)
Chris Buescher to beat Michael McDowell h2h (2.20)
Connor Zilisch top five finish (1.71)
Chris Buescher top ten finish (1.76)
Shane Van Gisbergen top Chevrolet driver (2.00)
Christopher Bell top Toyota driver (3.10)
Alex Bowman top ten finish (3.60)
Final Thoughts
With the seasons fast approaching, I have been drafting my Premier League season predictions, East Carolina college football predictions, and general college football futures bets, articles. These should be published in the coming weeks ahead of the start of those respective seasons!
I am attending a card collecting convention tomorrow and I am beyond excited for it! Probably will be mostly Pokemon cards, but hoping there is a good selection of sports cards on offer (mostly from soccer, NASCAR, F1, baseball and more) to expand my collection. I will certainly share the cards I pick up from the show, on socials!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.