USL Odds, August 3rd
Happy August! How is it already August?!?
Into the final two and a half months of the USL regular seasons, the battles for the playoffs begin to heat up, 22 teams in the USL Championship are either in a playoff spot, or within six points of one, while just 11 points separate first and tenth in USL1. An exciting remaining two and a half months awaits as we continue to figure out the playoff picture for both leagues.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, August 2nd.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USL: Indy Eleven win or tie and under 3 total goals (2.62), Colorado Springs v Las Vegas BTTS (1.61), Sacramento to win or tie and under 3 total goals (4.75), Oakland to win (1.95), Rhode Island to win and over 1 total goal (2.40), Tampa Bay or Charleston to win double chance and BTTS (2.50), Louisville to win with BTTS and over 2 total goals (3.25), New Mexico to score over 1.5 goals (2.10), Greenville v Knoxville under 2.5 goals (1.80), Fuego v Tormenta over 2.5 goals (1.53).
Parlays: Rhode Island, Louisville and Memphis all to win (4.87) | Lexington v Richmond, Spokane v Charlotte and Fuego v Tormenta all over 2.5 goals (5.19)
Other Bets: Ferrari both cars to finish top six of Belgian Grand Prix (2.00), New Zealand v USA BTTS and France v Guinea not to have BTTS (3.00), USA, France and Japan all to win (3.53)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Charleston v Indy Eleven
1.33 - 5.00 - 6.50
This match might be the perfect game to kick off your weekend as looking back historically, it has always been filled with lots of scoring. Charleston have scored a combined nine goals in the last two meetings against Indy Eleven, but Indy Eleven have scored four goals against Charleston on three separate occasions in this series. Six of the ten all-time meetings have been BTTS. We may be in for a treat on Friday night.
Bet: BTTS, over 2 total goals (2.25)
Detroit v Rhode Island
2.55 - 3.50 - 2.35
Detroit are in a bit of a rut now, winless in their last five games and have gone one Wolf of Wall Street (2013) in runtime since they last scored. On top of that, Detroit have not won any of their last three home games too—their longest winless run at home since starting the 2023 season with four matches at home without a win. Rhode Island enter this match unbeaten in their last seven games, winners of five of those matches. Rhode Island have also scored multiple goals in each of those games. Keyworth is a very tough place to enter and score multiple goals in—Birmingham on June 26, 2024 and Colorado Springs on September 27, 2023 were the last two clubs to do so—I think the result however leans towards the red hot Rhode Island FC.
Bet: Rhode Island win or tie, under 3 goals (2.60)
Birmingham v Hartford
1.66 - 3.80 - 4.20
Both sides enter this match having pulled off clean sheet wins in their last match played, Birmingham a 3-0 victory over Orange County last week and Hartford a 1-0 win over Detroit in the midweek fixtures. Birmingham have not won back to back home matches since they won three consecutive home games in June to July 2023. Hartford have not won back to back matches since March of this year. The one thing holding me back from putting more faith into Hartford this weekend is that away from home, they have not scored multiple goals in a match since September 16, 2023 in a 4-2 loss to Memphis. Hartford have not scored multiple goals in a road game that they have won since July 22, 2023.
Bet: Hartford no goals in the match (2.50)
Loudoun v Miami
1.38 - 4.33 - 6.50
A pair of sides who finished outside the playoff picture last season—Miami missing out on tiebreakers. But these two teams are a long ways away from the sides they were last year, for better or worse. Loudoun find themselves holding onto the last playoff spot in the East by a four point margin, while Miami languishes in the cellar of the conference, having lost their last five and gone winless in their last 13 games. The planet of Mercury has orbited around the sun 1.11 times since Miami last won a match! Miami is the only winless club away from home in the league this year too, and while they may find the back of the net once, I can only see Loudoun prevailing here.
Bet: Loudoun to win and Loudoun to score over 1 goal (1.61)
Memphis v El Paso
1.65 - 3.75 - 4.33
Historically in this series, Memphis is a perfect two wins from two games when they have played El Paso. At home this season, Memphis are the second best team in the West, having gone unbeaten in their last seven home matches. El Paso meanwhile, enter this match having lost five in a row, on a combined aggregate score of 11-2 in that time. This Locomotive side are have only kept one clean sheet in the Cabrera Era. I think with how potent Memphis have been at home this season especially—having been shutout at home just once all season—Memphis should likely find the back of the net a couple times this match.
Bet: Memphis to score over 1.5 goals (1.72)
Note: could parlay that bet above with over 2 total goals in the match for (2.05)
Colorado Springs v Phoenix
2.05 - 3.10 - 3.40
While Phoenix have recorded three shutouts in their last five games, it has only netted them one win in that time. The Switchbacks meanwhile are on a three match winless run entering this match, their first winless drought since the middle of April 2024. However, like Memphis above, Colorado Springs enters this match on an impressive unbeaten streak at home, having not lost a match a Weidner Field in the league in their last eight games—picking up an impressive four shutouts in that time.
Bet: Colorado Springs to win (2.05)
New Mexico v Louisville
2.50 - 3.40 - 2.45
This match lost a bit of its luster due to New Mexico’s surprising home defeat against Las Vegas on Wednesday, their first home loss all season—and first defeat at home since September 2, 2023. Louisville arrives in town as New Mexico hopes to avoid losing two consecutive home games for the first time since August 6 and 17, 2022—back when the movie Bullet Train was the #1 film in America. This is still my match of the weekend and the game to watch on Saturday night. It will be a fun one, let’s hope the goals follow.
Bet: BTTS, over 2 total goals (1.95)
San Antonio v Tulsa
1.61 - 3.75 - 4.50
San Antonio desperately need a result, as the Texan club faces just one win in their last eight games, and having gone goalless in their last 187’—or just five minutes longer than Avengers: Endgame’s runtime. Tulsa have actually put together four clean sheets in their last five games, but have featured three 0-0 results in that time. While it looks like Tulsa has their defense figured out, their attack is still lacking as it has been a hilarious 1-1 aggregate score of Tulsa’s previous five games. This game might be an absolute mess in terms of what to bet on.
Bet: BTTS (1.57)
Monterey Bay v Tampa Bay
4.33 - 3.80 - 1.65
I think now is the time to start paying close attention to Tampa Bay, as the side has put together a three game winning streak, with the Rowdies having scored multiple goals in each of those games. They approach a quick two weeks on the West Coast to play Monterey Bay this week and Phoenix next week, entering these games in peak form. Monterey Bay has only lost two of their ten home games this year, at the hands of Sacramento and Indy Eleven. Having parted ways with manager Frank Yallop midweek for Monterey Bay means they will have to play for the hopes of a new manager bounce working. This match, if you can find favorable odds on it, might be an excellent chance to pick Tampa Bay to win their fourth straight match.
Bet: Tampa Bay to win, over 2 total goal (2.40)
Orange County v North Carolina
2.75 - 3.30 - 2.30
Orange County has alternated “loss then win” for the last five games they have played—losing 3-0 to Birmingham last time out, their worse loss since May. North Carolina however, is one of the USL Championship’s worst teams away from home this year, just one win—at Miami—this season. Despite getting an impressive 0-0 result against Sacramento the last time NCFC ventured to California, this time might be trickier.
Bet: Orange County tie or win, BTTS (2.50)
Sacramento v Pittsburgh
1.90 - 3.20 - 3.80
A battle of the two teams who won the regular season Shield—Pittsburgh—and Western Conference—Sacramento. These two sides last year finished within three points of each other in the top of the league. However neither side made it to the USL final. Both Sacramento and Pittsburgh have had 15 games each this year that saw under 2.5 goals this year. I could see this game being another low-scoring affair, one Sacramento is likely to prevail with a result. Interesting note, Sacramento has been shutout in back to back home games this year on two separate occasions.
Bet: Sacramento to win or tie, under 2 total goals (3.10)
USL1
Charlotte v Lexington
1.66 - 3.60 - 4.20
Don’t look now, but the Charlotte Independence have won four of their last five games in the league, and are unbeaten in their last five games including Jagermeiseter Cup matches in 90’. Impressively, Charlotte have only been shutout just twice all season against USL1 opposition, and have not been shutout at home in USL1 play since April 19, 2023—or when The Super Mario Bros. Movie was entering their second week as the #1 movie in America. While Lexington picked up a much needed win last week versus Richmond, the Kentucky club has just one win away from home against USL1 opposition this year.
Bet: Charlotte to win, over 3 total goals (3.60)
Chattanooga v Fuego FC
1.57 - 4.33 - 4.10
After going their preceding five matches in a row scoring over 2.5 goals in those games in total, Chattanooga’s matches have slowed down as their last three games have all been under 2.5 goals. Fuego meanwhile, have scored in their last seven games played, four of which saw over 2.5 goals in those games. Depending on which Chattanooga team shows up, I am cautiously optimistic to pick over 2 total goals for this match.
Bet: Over 2.5 total goals (1.36)
Tormenta FC v Spokane
2.00 - 3.75 - 2.87
It’s wild that we’ve waited until August for a first ever meeting between a long-time USL1 club, Tormenta, and new expansion team Spokane. Spokane sit on the outside of the playoff picture in the league by a single point, while Tormenta are ahead of them by one point. With the key position in the playoff race on the line, I imagine both teams will want to leave this match with three points and not settle for a draw. But I think given those circumstances, the points will be shared in the end.
Bet: Draw (3.75)
Omaha v Madison
2.20 - 3.60 - 2.62
Arguably the USL1 match of the weekend, as my two best teams in the league as per my Elo ratings, face off in Nebraska. Omaha, shockingly, have not beaten Madison at home since August 31, 2022—just before Top Gun: Maverick had hit theaters and 703 days ago, or 1.02 orbits of the planet Mars around the sun. It’s been a while for Omaha and the best chance to beat Madison might be when they are off the back of their first shutout defeat in a month’s time.
Bet: Omaha or Madison to win double chance (1.22)
Northern Colorado v Richmond
1.60 - 4.00 - 4.10
Northern Colorado picked up a surprising 1-0 win over Madison last week, while Richmond fell 2-1 away at Lexington. Historically in this series, Northern Colorado have been on a a run of three consecutive wins against the Kickers, and unbeaten in their last four meetings. Richmond have lost their last three matches across all competitions too—with four of their last five games all being three total goals or more scored in the match.
Bet: Northern Colorado to win or tie double chance, over 3 total goals (3.40)
Parlays:
Three Legs:
Loudoun, Memphis, Tampa Bay all to win (3.55)
Charlotte v Lexington, Chattanooga v Fuego, Northern Colorado v Richmond all over 2.5 goals (4.16)
New Mexico v Louisville, San Antonio v Tulsa, Orange County v North Carolina all BTTS (4.65)
Charleston, Rhode Island, Birmingham all to win (5.17)
Charlotte, Northern Colorado, Omaha all to win (5.86)
Four or more Legs:
Charleston, Birmingham, Loudoun, Memphis all to win (4.84)
Charlotte to win, Omaha win or tie, Fuego win or tie, Northern Colorado win or tie (5.85)
Loudoun v Miami, New Mexico v Louisville, Monterey Bay v Tampa Bay all over 2.5 goals, Detroit v Rhode Island under 2.5 goals (9.33)
Rhode Island, Colorado Springs, Tampa Bay, Sacramento all to win (14.78)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Women’s Soccer at the Olympics:
USA to beat Japan by 2 or more goals in Olympics quarterfinals match (2.60)
USA, Spain, France all to win (3.52)
USA v Japan, Canada v Germany, France v Brazil all over 2.5 goals (4.90)
USA to win gold medal (2.50)
USA Men’s Basketball at the Olympics vs Puerto Rico:
Lebron James and Kevin Durant 15+ points (3.60)
Lebron James 5+ assists, Anthony Davis 5+ rebounds, Steph Curry 3+ threes made, USA cover -34.5 spread (4.20)
Final Thoughts
Tomorrow, Peoria, Illinois will play host to the USL2 final, as Peoria City faces Seacoast United Phantoms in the national final. A new USL2 champion will be crowned on Saturday night. There very well could be betting odds offered on this match…
John Morrissey wrote a very good article on what a possible “USL Premier” could look like, which I recommend you read. It would also make for a very fun Football Manager database one day too.
San Diego Comic Con had the usual headlines all last Saturday, but none larger than it being announced that Robert Downey Jr. would return to the MCU—on an $80m paycheck no less—and play Doctor Doom in the next Avengers movie, which is also bringing back the Russo Brothers as directors too. This has the chance to be one of the most insane casting decisions in the history of the MCU, but it is so crazy that it might end up being almost inspired. Not to mention, the four previous MCU movies directed by the Russo Brothers—Captain America: Winter Soldier, Captain America: Civil War, Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame—are all in my top four movies in my MCU rankings (my Letterboxd list here), so I am willing to trust their vision.
I recently re-watched the two National Treasure movies with Nicholas Cage. Having gone back through each movie, the technology used in each film certainly felt dated as compared to today, the two films having come out in 2004 and 2007. While each movie definitely had their fair share of “plot conveniences” for the sake of the story, they are still decently fun films to revisit.
The Scottish Championship begins their season this weekend, the English Championship season begins next weekend. I am prepared to have morning to nights on Saturdays, filled with soccer coverage as the European leagues begin their seasons again. Not to mention, we are only a few weeks away from the return of college football too. The busiest but most fun portion of the sports calendar will soon be back!
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.
Did Bet365 really pay out the Ferrari bet for you? I had the same action, but their rules say it's based on the finish at the checkered flag so it registered as a loss for me.