USL Odds, August 15
Premier League is back in England, one week away from College Football Week Zero, and the biggest league in the world has another full weekend of matches. Best time of the sports calendar is upon us.
It was another very successful weekend of wagers for us last time out, with lots to be learned from the results of both leagues from those bet payouts. Let’s see if our momentum continues trending positively and how many more of our bets this week that we can hit! Best of luck to all of your wagers for the weekend!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, August 15
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
USL: Detroit win or tie, Under 2.5 goals (2.30), Pittsburgh win or tie, Under 2.5 goals (1.70), Rhode Island win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.60), Hartford win or tie (1.72), Louisville v Charleston BTTS, over 2.5 goals (2.10), Tulsa ML, BTTS (4.33), Colorado Springs win or tie, Colorado Springs to score first (1.90), Las Vegas v San Antonio BTTS, San Antonio to score first (3.20), Sacramento win to nil (2.20), Naples ML (1.85)
Parlays: Tulsa & Sacramento ML (2.90), Detroit v Indy Eleven and Pittsburgh v Orange County both under 2.5 goals (2.83), Charlotte v Greenville and Naples v Texoma both over 2.5 goals (3.33)
Beyond USL: Southampton v Wrexham BTTS (1.90), West Bromwich Albion ML v Blackburn (1.83), Luton Town ML v Peterborough (1.85), San Jose v Vancouver, BTTS, over 2.5 goals, Brian White goal or assist anytime (2.40), Astros at Yankees over 7.5 runs (1.86), Guardians and Phillies ML parlay (3.03), Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 2+ total bases (2.10), Connor Zilisch to win outright (2.10), Christopher Bell to beat William Byron h2h (1.86), Chris Buescher to beat Michael McDowell h2h (2.20), Chris Buescher top ten finish (1.76), Shane Van Gisbergen top Chevrolet driver (2.00), Christopher Bell top Toyota driver (3.10)
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
North Carolina v Detroit
2.10 - 3.20 - 3.30
I had mentioned it in last week’s article, but I have completed sold on Detroit when the club plays away from home, for now on. No victories inside 90’ away from home since April 2024, nine matches without a win in that time. North Carolina meanwhile have just three defeats at home this season against USL opposition. This is an NCFC who team who routinely are involved in high-scoring matches, as their last five games played have been BTTS, four of those games going over 2.5 goals. In their nine previous road games against USL clubs, just four of those games went over 2.5 goals, and Detroit scored the opening goal in just two of those games.
I have to imagine it will be NCFC scoring first, and I will back them even further to get a win.
Bet: North Carolina ML, North Carolina to score first (2.37)
Hartford v Tulsa
2.50 - 3.25 - 2.60
Without question, this is my USL Championship match of the weekend. Tulsa, who are on pace for their best ever season in club history as per my Elo ratings (and have quietly pulled to within three points of Charleston in the shield table), are coming off a triumphant victory 5-2 over New Mexico last week—it was a game with the most goals scored by Tulsa since October 2023, also 5-2 over, coincidentally enough, their opponents this weekend, Hartford.
Hosts, Hartford, have made it unbeaten in their last five games played and three wins in a row in the league, outscoring opponents 10-1 in that time, well enough to climb back into a playoff spot in the East. Hartford Athletic have not won four consecutive league games ever in a single-season before in club history. But to do so going against the best team in the West, will be a challenge. Historically, these games have been must-watch TV, as their five previous meetings (no ties in that time, three wins in favor of Hartford, two wins for Tulsa) have each been BTTS, each going over 2.5 goals, with a further three going over 4.5 goals! Here is hoping we get another offensive showcase this weekend, easy pick for our goals bet of the weekend.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 goals (2.20)
Loudoun v Indy Eleven
1.95 - 3.90 - 3.10
A pair of clubs who could really, really use a win to break this bad form of late. Loudoun, until further notice, has been placed back into the ‘LADS protocol’ as they have not won a match since June 14th. In spite all of that, Loudoun has only just now relinquished third place in the East, after a 0-0 result against Rhode Island last week. Indy Eleven have tumbled out of the playoff spots this past week, having lost a third match in a row in the league with a 0-1 defeat to Detroit last week. But the matches in hand Indy Eleven have over the teams around them could very well see them vault back into the playoff race, particularly being just one point out of it as it stands.
March 2022 was the last time Loudoun beat Indy Eleven in a match, a series largely dominated by the Indiana club historically (five unbeaten results for Indy Eleven since then). Do you trust this Loudoun team to shed this bad run of form, or has their luck run out? I just can’t in good faith back Loudoun at the moment, though Indy Eleven aren’t inspiring confidence themselves at the moment. Picking a frustrating draw out of this match.
Bet: Draw (3.90)
Miami v Louisville
4.75 - 3.90 - 1.60
Louisville staked their claim as not just the having the upper hand in the conference, with their 4-1 win over Charleston last Saturday night (in front of a sold-out crowd no less), but are on track for being one of USL’s most dominant ever teams with the pace they are on as per my Elo ratings—and a trip to South Beach awaits this weekend. Miami meanwhile had a hard-fought draw against El Paso at home but have gone now nine games without a win across all competitions (June 18, a 1-0 result over Charleston being their last victory).
That performance last Saturday is the type of result that you just see a team like Louisville kicking on to improve upon, they’ve scored multiple goals in each of their last three games (all wins across all competitions), and their last three matches against Miami have been over 2.5 goals as well (though it did include one defeat to Miami, away in September 2023). I just don’t see Louisville failing to win this match, and we might see another vintage “Louisville ML, Over 1.5 goals” performance once more.
Bet: Louisville ML, Over 1.5 goals (1.90)
Pittsburgh v Charleston
3.00 - 2.70 - 2.60
Charleston will admittedly want to put the defeat against Louisville last week as far out of mind as possible, but making the trip to Highmark Stadium to play the Pittsburgh Riverhounds is less than an ideal follow-up showcase. Charleston has not won away at this ground since July 2018, or even scored at this ground since October 2021. Pittsburgh have been doing usual Riverhounds success that they typically find midseason, unbeaten in their last nine games played with four clean sheets in that time. While the Battery are safe in their spot within the top two (and have a 14-point gap ahead of Pittsburgh at the moment), any dropped points this weekend coupled with a Louisville would pretty slam the door shut on the player’s shield and #1 seed in the East.
There could be value to be found in betting there to be goals in this game, six of the last nine Pittsburgh games they have gone unbeaten in, have gone over 1.5 goals scored, four of those games coming at home. Let’s lean on the hosts to at least scrape a point from this game, as a first Charleston goal scored at this stadium since Dune (2021) was in theaters might be a tougher ask.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, under total 3.5 goals (1.80)
Though perhaps just betting this game to be a draw might be safer.
Colorado Springs v Orange County
2.05 - 3.30 - 3.20
The visiting team has only won just one of the previous nine meetings of this fixture (Colorado Springs 1-0 over Orange County in September 2023). July 2021 was the last time Orange County entered into Colorado Springs and left with three points too. Both teams enter this game unbeaten in their previous four games played, each in the heart of the Western Conference playoff race, on the right side of the cutline with a win further cementing their spots in the playoffs.
In ten all-time meetings at Colorado Springs, only once has it gone under 1.5 goals, and we may be in for some more goals this weekend in this one. Lean the way of the visitors and for this match to go over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Colorado Springs win or tie, over 2.5 goals (2.62)
El Paso v Monterey Bay
1.57 - 3.90 - 4.75
El Paso likely should have walked away with at least a goal from their 0-0 draw with Miami last week, but the Locomotive can take pride in their third consecutive clean sheet across all competitions after this match—or enough time to watch Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002) twice since El Paso last conceded a goal. The Locomotive have not had three consecutive clean sheets since September 2024, as El Paso have quietly moved back into the top four of the West, three points out of second place. Monterey Bay had a 0-1 defeat to Sacramento last week, ending a run of five games where they had scored a goal in—however more concerning, MBFC have lost their last four games played.
I lean the way of the hosts to get a result in this game, as El Paso have not lost to MBFC in each of their previous three meetings against the club. From each club’s previous five games played, MBFC has seen four of their last five games go over 2.5 goals, while El Paso has seen three of their last five games go over that mark. Back the hosts to get a win this week, with the game going over 1.5 goals.
Bet: El Paso win, over 1.5 goals (2.00)
New Mexico v Las Vegas
1.53 - 3.90 - 5.75
New Mexico were at the mercy of another loss by three goals or more this past weekend, losing to Tulsa 2-5—their third defeat of three or more goals this season. It has confirmed that New Mexico will have gone six consecutive games across all competitions without a win, their longest streak without a win since August 2021. Las Vegas meanwhile started the Devin Rensing era with a 1-1 draw against San Antonio, a match where they actually won the xG battle with an encouraging amount of chances created. As Dennis Sanchez prepares New Mexico for a game against his former employer, it is worth mentioning that Las Vegas has not lost a game away at New Mexico, since March 2022, earning two wins and a draw in their three previous trips here.
This wager might look foolish after this weekend, but I just think NMU are in a tough spot at the moment, that I will actually be backing Las Vegas to walk away with at least a point in this match, these odds might be too appealing to pass up
Bet: Las Vegas win or tie (2.37)
San Antonio v Lexington
1.90 - 3.50 - 3.50
In one of their earliest games as a member of the USL Championship, Lexington lost 2-3 against San Antonio at home this season back in March, Lexington would then go their next ten matches against USL opposition across all competitions, without a win, but their form of late has been better (just one loss in their previous seven league games played). San Antonio has been in a bit of a wobble lately, no wins in their previous three games played, but at home, it has been a different story, with just one defeat inside 90’ in their last six games played at Toyota Field.
I am inclined to pick San Antonio to get a result of this match, but I am actually going to go in a different direction and pick a goals wager for this match, with this game to have the bulk of its scoring done in the second half as for each of these team’s last three games played (five games for San Antonio), there has been at least one goal scored in the second half. I think the sides will find the back of the net twice in the second half tomorrow night.
Bet: Over 1.5 second half goals (2.00)
Tampa Bay v Phoenix
1.83 - 3.60 - 3.60
A match between the 2020 USL Championship final that never was, at the very venue it was set to be held in too. For the last five games, Tampa Bay have alternated loss-win-loss-win-loss (so they should win this week…?), highlighting their very inconsistent form—though their last three games played have all been BTTS/over 2.5 goals. Phoenix meanwhile has seen their form run cold, with just one win inside 90’ in their previous six games played. But one thing I can always count on for Phoenix is to be involved in games with multiple goals, as just four games they have been involved in this season has seen under 1.5 goals, 15 games against USL opposition has been BTTS/over 2.5 goals. But Phoenix has never won a match against Tampa Bay all-time in four previous meetings.
I think Tampa Bay continues their back and forth trend of alternating wins and losses, with a win this weekend and let’s pick them to get BTTS as well.
Bet: Tampa Bay ML, BTTS (3.75)
Sacramento v Oakland
1.57 - 3.70 - 5.25
Sacramento have been the ultimate professionals in recent weeks, making it now six games unbeaten in their last six played, with now a fifth shutout in that time. This Republic team has nestled themselves in the drivers seat of second in the West at the moment. Oakland under Benny Feilhaber have looked better to their credit, but they have gone now just one win in their previous four games played. Roots sit four points out of a playoff spot right now and failing to win this week would leave their playoff hopes in a perilous spot. Running into this Republic team, in this moment in time, might not be what you want to see if you’re the Roots.
Does Sacramento make it a sixth shutout in seven games played, for another win to nil? I do think Sacramento wins this match (making it seven wins in 14 games played all-time against Oakland), but a “win to nil” for Sacramento when hosting Oakland has only happened twice in five previous meetings at Heart Health Park.
Bet: Sacramento ML (1.57)
USL1
Charlotte v Westchester
1.70 - 4.00 - 3.60
Westchester will be on a day’s shorter rest than Charlotte, after having drawn 3-3 against an interim manager-led Tormenta team last Sunday, while Charlotte lost 4-5 in a high-scoring game against Greenville (where over 2.5 goals hit inside the first 30’ played). Just knowing how likely it is for both of these teams get drawn into high-scoring games, picking this one to be over 2.5 goals is my immediate first wager on this game. When these sides first met back in May, it was a Souaibou Marou hat trick that propelled Charlotte to the 3-2 win over Westchester—yes, it was another game where Westchester scored first and failed to win.
Do you think the trend continues where Westchester get another opening goal but fail to win? I might not go so far to say that, but I am expecting a high-scoring game where Charlotte get the result at minimum (and it would be the fifth game in a row of Charlotte’s that would have gone over 2.5 goals too).
Bet: Charlotte win or tie, over 2.5 goals (1.86)
Knoxville v Omaha
2.20 - 2.90 - 3.20
Knoxville are still looking for their first win over Omaha in the history of this series, as the Nebraskan club lead the all-time meetings four wins and one draw. The last two games of this series have seen Omaha win 1-0, and if there are two teams in the league right now that are likely to see games go under 2.5 goals, it’s these two, particularly when Knoxville are hosting—two of their last four home games have been under 2.5 goals. But, four of the last five games for Omaha have gone over 2.5 goals as well. I think Knoxville are still the better team here and playing at home, I think they at minimum get a result out of this match.
Bet: Knoxville win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.10)
Richmond v Tormenta
2.25 - 3.20 - 2.87
This strikes me as the chance for a very silly game of the weekend, taking place at City Stadium, as two of my bottom three teams in Elo ratings prepare to face off. Richmond still looking for their first win since June, and first win at home since April. The last four games involving Tormenta have gone over 2.5 goals, while two of the last three games involving Richmond have surpassed that mark. On just three occasions have Tormenta won at Richmond, and none since March 2024. The odds honestly feel like it’s worth a punt on Tormenta double chance here, but a safer option might be for this game to see over 2.5 goals. The question comes from, do you think Richmond finally shake off their bad form for a win at home? If it does not come tomorrow, when might it happen?
Bet: Tormenta win or tie (1.53)
Madison v Naples
2.05 - 3.00 - 3.50
It Naples’ second ever game as a club when these sides met back in March, which saw the Floridian team win 2-0. Madison over recent weeks has gone four games without a win, and needed late heroics to rescue a draw against Knoxville. Naples meanwhile have gone three wins in a row, with each game being a 2-1 scoreline, with four consecutive wins being a club record if they reach that mark this week. For a team who has had a high-frequency of getting draws on the year (nine on the second), Madison have been involved in eight games that have gone over 2.5 goals this year.
One concern I have over Naples in this match is that their win away at Richmond to start August, was their first win away from home since April (a streak of nine consecutive road games without a win across all competitions), and this is their first game away since that aforementioned win over Richmond. But Naples are the in-form team of the league right now, while Madison have not scored the opening goal in any of these four previous games without a win. I will hesitantly pick Naples ML, but it’s not one of my more confident bets.
Bet: Naples ML (3.50)
Texoma v Chattanooga
3.10 - 3.20 - 2.10
Last week’s draw away at Omaha meant it is now eight matches in a row since Chattanooga last lost a game, and with Spokane’s match this week happening on Sunday, the Red Wolves could go into sole possession atop of the USL1 table with a win (at least for Saturday night only). The Texoma team that I thought had started to get things figured out, has fallen back dangerously near the playoff cutline, with no wins in any of their six previous games played across all competitions (dating back to July 5th). In that time, four of those games played have all gone over 2.5 goals, but Texoma has not scored the opening goal in any of those matches (including a 1-1 draw with Chattanooga). Though their “scoring the first goal” streak ended last week against Omaha, I am backing Chattanooga to start a new streak, while continuing an ongoing one.
Taking the Red Wolves win or tie, as well as scoring the opening goal.
Bet: Chattanooga win or tie, Chattanooga to score first (1.90)
AV Alta v Greenville
2.90 - 3.20 - 2.15
Greenville games are slowly becoming must-watch viewing in USL1 again, and I want to formally say I should not have been so quick to write off the Triumph. Seven of their last nine games played have gone over 2.5 goals, including last week’s thrilling 5-4 win over Charlotte, where a Ben Zakowski goal at 90+6’ confirmed the three points to Greenville. AV Alta have just one win in their previous five games played, but with three of these previous five games having come on the road, the travel has certainly been a factor. However, at home, AV Alta have not lost since April 2025 (1-2 against Spokane).
This game at minimum seems like it will be surpassing the over 2.5 goals mark, but should we go the step further to pick AV Alta to maintain their unbeaten form at home this season? Home field advantage is massive in this league, and Greenville’s trips westward have been lacking this season, with no wins away against teams west of Chattanooga. Pick the hosts.
Bet: AV Alta ML, over 2.5 goals (3.10)
Portland v Spokane
No odds as of writing
A Sunday evening match of the league’s longest road trips, as Spokane makes the long journey to Fitzpatrick Stadium to take on Portland Hearts of Pine. The previous meeting between these two clubs back in April resulted in a 0-0 draw, and I am honestly inclined to lean towards this game being under 2.5 goals as well, something that has occurred in three of Portland’s last four games, and two of Spokane’s last four games. Spokane are however off the back of two wins in a row, and would want to make it three in a row for the first time since May, but Portland however have only lost once at home all season (though it did come against a west coast team in AV Alta).
I think the travel may play a role on Spokane, especially as they kick off a three game road trip to end the month of August (just one home game in their next six games played is brutal). Double chance on Portland in this one and I think it goes under 2.5 goals.
Bet: Portland win or tie, under 2.5 goals
Parlays
ML Parlay:
El Paso, Sacramento, Louisville ML (3.95)
North Carolina, Colorado Springs, Tampa Bay ML (7.89)
Chattanooga, Naples, Charlotte ML (12.49)
BTTS, Goals Over/Under Parlay:
Hartford v Tulsa, Loudoun v Indy Eleven, Tampa Bay v Phoenix all BTTS (4.97)
Miami v Louisville over 1.5 goals, El Paso v Monterey Bay over 2.5 goals, Pittsburgh v Charleston under 3.5 goals (2.68)
Underdog Parlay:
Pittsburgh and Las Vegas double chance: 3.56
Tormenta, Naples, AV Alta double chance: 3.89
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 13.83
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USL1 Parlay: 4.19 (not including Portland v Spokane)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Other Soccer:
England/Scotland
Aston Villa v Newcastle: Aston Villa double chance, BTTS
Burnley win or tie v Tottenham (3.00)
Manchester City, Chelsea ML (2.31)
Arsenal win or tie v Manchester United, Gyokeres scores anytime (2.00)
Wrexham v West Brom BTTS (1.83)
Stoke ML, Ipswich v Southampton BTTS (3.25)
Cardiff ML, Luton double chance (2.22)
Aberdeen, Hearts to qualify in Scottish League Cup (2.01)
MLS:
Charlotte ML v Real Salt Lake (1.90)
Son Heung-Min (LAFC) goal anytime v New England Revolution (2.60)
Columbus, Chicago, Orlando ML (4.20)
San Jose v San Diego BTTS, over 2.5 goals (1.61)
Other Sports:
Friday MLB
Brewers, Phillies ML (2.61)
Kyle Schwarber 2+ total bases (2.25)
Marlins at Red Sox over 8.5 runs (1.90)
Royals -1.5 spread vs White Sox (2.15)
Angels at Athletics over 10 runs (1.95)
Padres at Dodgers over 9 runs (1.83)
NASCAR - Cook Out 400 from Richmond International Raceway
Just two races left before the playoffs for the NASCAR Cup series, as they head to one of my favorite short tracks on the calendar, Richmond, for a Saturday night race. One weird stat I had found was since 2009, Hendrick have only won two races at this track, a circuit largely dominated by Toyota and Ford cars in recent history—Denny Hamlin is excellent at this track. It’s a strange stat for NASCAR’s top racing organization to not have more success at this track (Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman being the only Hendrick winners in that time). Teams might start to get more desperate for wins as the end of the regular season draws near—everyone remembers Austin Dillon’s last corner wreck that won him this race last year. I am looking towards the RFK Racing drivers, Chris Bueshcer, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Preece, as being among the top drivers for being in a desperate spot to get wins before the playoffs (as well as being the top Ford drivers this weekend).
Denny Hamlin top five finish (1.76)
Toyota winning manufacturer (2.10)
Chris Buescher top ten finish (2.20)
Kyle Larson to win a group of himself, Byron, Blaney and Elliott (2.75)
Josh Berry top ten finish (2.60)
Final Thoughts
I published my Premier League 25/26 Season Predictions article earlier today! I predicted the final table, winners of the domestic cups, how Europe would play, Golden Boot and Golden Glove, and the first manager to be sacked. I offered up one bold prediction for each club in the table as well. Give it a read!
Alien: Earth on FX/Hulu just started as a series this week. I have usually been rather hit and miss with the Alien franchise as a whole, but the first two episode of this series has caught my attention. I like the vibe of the world of Earth in this distant future and the fight scenes with the Xenomorph have been rather well-done thus far. I’ll certainly be watching more of the show moving forward!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.