USL Odds, August 10
Plenty of exciting matches at both ends of the table in the USL Championship and the penultimate stage of Jagermeister Cup matches in USL1 this weekend.
The playoff picture is becoming clearer in the USL Championship as we enter the second weekend of August, this weekend’s USL1 matches feature the tail end of the Jagermeister Cup group stage. Not to mention we have the European leagues returning this weekend as well as England’s Championship, League One, and League Two all begin their campaigns this weekend.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, August 9th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
Rhode Island win or tie and under 3 goals (2.60), Loudoun to win and Loudoun to score over 1 goal (1.61), Colorado Springs to win (2.05), San Antonio v Tulsa BTTS (1.57), Chattanooga v Fuego over 2.5 goals (1.36), Tormenta v Spokane draw (3.75), Northern Colorado to win or tie and over 3 total goals (3.40)
Parlays: Charlotte v Lexington, Chattanooga v Fuego and Northern Colorado v Richmond all over 2.5 goals (4.16)
Elo Ratings
*Remember that Jagermeister Cup matches do not factor into USL1 Elo ratings.
USL Championship
Tulsa v Orange County
1.72 - 3.70 - 4.00
Orange County has won the last four games played against Tulsa all-time in the history of this series. You have to go back to March 16, 2019 to find the last time Tulsa was able to beat Orange County—when Captain Marvel (2019) premiered in theaters—or May 13, 2017 to find the last time Tulsa beat Orange County at home—or when Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 (2017) just premiered in theaters. The last four Orange County road games were under 2.5 goals, while the last three Tulsa home games were under that mark as well. Tulsa’s three goal performance against San Antonio last week the first time since June 19th that they had scored multiple goals in a match.
Bet: Tulsa win or tie, under 2.5 goals (2.25)
Pittsburgh v San Antonio
1.55 - 3.75 - 4.75
While it took a few months to find their footing, Pittsburgh have put together an unbeaten run of five matches in a row. Pittsburgh have not conceded a goal in the last 207’—or the duration of The Irishman (2019). The Riverhounds last three games have been under 2.5 goals as well. San Antonio are winless in their last three games and have just one win from their last five. At Highmark, I cannot see Pittsburgh losing to San Antonio given each team’s run of form, but I would not expect lots of goals.
Bet: Pittsburgh to win or tie, under 3 total goals (2.00)
*Note, Pittsburgh win or tie and under 2 total goals is 4.00
Charleston v Memphis
1.53 - 4.00 - 5.00
Another edition of the Ben Pirmann derby is taking place this weekend, with the two clubs splitting the meetings last season, with the hosts winning each game in 2023. In fact, the home team has won four of the six all-time meetings between these two teams in a series. Charleston are unbeaten at home in their last five home games and just put five goals past Indy Eleven last time out. Memphis just has one victory in their last five road games as well. This match might be one to follow the historical trend of the hosts prevailing.
Bet: Charleston to win, over 2.5 goals (2.30)
North Carolina v Colorado Springs
2.00 - 3.10 - 3.60
North Carolina enter this match unbeaten in their last six games at home while Colorado Springs, despite being the best team at home in the West this year, have not won a road game in their last five trips. North Carolina have kept eight clean sheets on the season while Colorado Springs enters this match having scored in their last six games. This to me is the toughest match to predict this weekend.
Bet: Draw (3.10)
Rhode Island v Hartford
1.53 - 3.90 - 5.25
Rhode Island will be hosting the second meeting of this New England derby, after the first contest back in June finished 1-1. Rhode Island saw their eight match unbeaten run reach a conclusion in the midweek after a 1-0 defeat to Indy Eleven away, it was also their first scoreless performance in that run of games too. Hartford meanwhile has just one win in their last eight games. I’m looking for Rhode Island to have a bounce back performance this weekend and get their first ever derby victory over rivals Hartford at home.
Bet: Rhode Island to win, over 1.5 goals (1.83)
El Paso v Miami
1.50 - 4.00 - 5.25
This might be the most insane match of the season, as the two worst teams in the league, bottom of each conference, face off in El Paso—too bad this game is not being played at the now named “Pitbull Stadium” in Miami. Miami won 4-0 last season in the one meeting between these two teams all-time. El Paso have scored just seven goals in the Cabrera era’s ten games while Miami have lost their last six games scoring just five goals in that time. This is the stoppable force versus the movable object game of the season. Someone has to record points from this match, something has to happen…
Bet: BTTS (1.83)
Louisville v Sacramento
1.61 - 3.50 - 4.75
Arguably the match of the weekend for USLC, and a fixture that has historically been rather high scoring, seeing a combined nine goals across their two all-time meetings. The home team has won both games of those matchups and luckily for you, Louisville is hosting this match as the best team in the league this year when playing at home on a nine win and one loss mark. Sacramento have not lost back to back games since the end of August 2023, but Louisville at Lynn Family Stadium this year is just another level entirely.
Bet: Louisville to win and Louisville over 1.5 goals (2.00)
Monterey Bay v Birmingham
2.55 - 3.30 - 2.45
Both teams were defined by late equalizers last week that each saw their games end 2-2. Monterey Bay, first match in the post-Yallop era, rescued a point against Tampa Bay with a 90+2’ equalizer, while Birmingham threw away a 2 goal lead to draw 2-2 with Hartford. Birmingham are in the top four best teams away from home this year in the Eastern Conference and despite the spirited performance last week against Tampa Bay, I think Monterey Bay cannot repeat a result this week so I would back Birmingham to bounce back and get all three points in this one.
Bet: Birmingham to win (2.45)
Oakland v Loudoun
2.10 - 3.40 - 3.00
In a rare scheduling quirk of the USL this season, each of these teams enter this match having won their last match against the same opponent—sorry Miami FC. Oakland beat Miami 2-1 while Loudoun came from behind to win 4-1 against Miami. In the all-time meeting of these two teams, it is an even one win apiece. What stands out to me on this match is that Loudoun has won just one road game all season, which happened to be another trip to California in a 2-0 win over Orange County. Oakland have won five of their ten home games on the year and enter this match as the slight favorite. You should be able to get decent odds on if you pick either of these teams to win however.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.90)
Las Vegas v Detroit
1.85 - 3.50 - 3.60
As per my Elo ratings, Las Vegas is currently the third best team in the Western Conference and enter this match on a ten match unbeaten run—a streak stretching back to when Furiosa (2024) was the #1 movie at the box office when Las Vegas last lost. Detroit meanwhile has seen their form drop off the mark in the past week, with no wins in their last seven games—all of these matches under 2.5 goals by the way. Las Vegas are wrapping up a four game road trip with a return home, to a venue where they are unbeaten in their last six home games. The Lights having scored in their last nine games makes them very likely to find the back of the net again, however seven of the ten games of this unbeaten run saw under 2.5 goals.
Bet: Las Vegas to win or tie, under 3.5 goals (2.25)
Phoenix v Tampa Bay
3.10 - 3.30 - 2.10
The 2020 final that never was this match up, but since then, Tampa Bay has won each of the three rematches, with the Rowdies scoring multiple goals in each of those games. Tampa Bay conceded a late equalizer against Monterey Bay last week while Phoenix were shutout against Colorado Springs. With the Rowdies unbeaten in their last five games, having scored exactly two goals in their last four games, and Phoenix goalless in their last 183’—or just longer than Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002)—Tampa Bay should have the upper hand in this one and see out at least a result against Phoenix.
Bet: Tampa Bay win or tie, over 1.5 goals (1.61)
Indy Eleven v New Mexico
2.15 - 3.40 - 2.87
A rather decent Sunday evening match as Indy Eleven hosts New Mexico. New Mexico have won both games of this matchup all-time, each in BTTS results. However, entering this match, New Mexico have lost back to back games for the first time since September 2023. Indy Eleven meanwhile halted a four match winless run with a midweek win over Rhode Island on Wednesday. The last five Indy Eleven home games were all under 2.5 goals, however they are going up against the second best team in the West this year in terms of away matches. I think this match provides a good opportunity for New Mexico to walk away with a result in this one.
Bet: New Mexico win or tie, BTTS (2.37)
USL1 - Jagermeister Cup
*Remember, all matches in the cup cannot end in a draw
Fuego v Omaha
3.75 - 4.00 - 1.66
Are Fuego good? They enter the match having won three of their last four games and sit just two points behind Omaha in their Jagermeister Cup group. This is a Fuego team that is scoring more goals than we have been used to seeing, having scored 13 goals in their eight games since being shutout last. However, Omaha has historically been a team that has had Fuego’s number, having only lost to the California club just once all-time. I may not back Fuego to get all three points in regulation, but this should be a fun match for the neutrals to watch.
Bet: Over 3 goals (2.62)
Charlotte v Greenville
2.10 - 3.50 - 2.80
A crucial game to decide the race for the top spot of the East Group, as Charlotte sit four points back with two games left in the group stage—both teams’ last two group stage games are against each other. A win for Greenville will see them clinch the group, but Charlotte enters this match unbeaten in their last six games across the league and cup have scored 12 goals in that time. However, it was Greenville who last beat Charlotte before their unbeaten run. This is my USL1 Cup match to watch this weekend, and should be one filled with goals.
Bet: Charlotte to win (2.10)
Lexington v Knoxville
2.62 - 3.50 - 2.25
In five all-time meetings, Lexington have never beaten Knoxville in a match, as Knoxville has prevailed on four occasions, including holding Lexington scoreless in their last three meetings all going the way of a victory for the Tennessee club. However, each team has relished their Jagermeister Cup matches as they sit level on 11 points in the Central Group, each just a point off of leaders Madison. Knoxville are unbeaten in their last five while Lexington have just one win their last five games. I think good value could be found in either team being picked to win this match, but I want to be optimistic for the upset and go the way of Lexington.
Bet: Lexington to win (2.62)
Richmond v Tormenta
2.30 - 3.50 - 2.55
In the 15 all-time meetings between Richmond and Tormenta, nine of those games have ended in BTTS. However, it has been Tormenta who have won the last two games of this series when played at City Stadium. Richmond slipped to the bottom spot of the USL1 Elo ratings last week as these two teams are playing to make up a goals tally for their group.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.65)
Madison v Chattanooga
1.50 - 4.75 - 4.20
This has shockingly been an even contest in the history of this series’ 14 all-time games. Madison and Chattanooga have each won four matches with six draws in this time. However, I think Madison will get a home win in this match as they will want to increase their lead over Lexington and Knoxville in their group standings and ensure that they are the ones to win this group.
Bet: Madison to win (1.50)
Parlays
Three Legs:
Charleston, Louisville, Rhode Island all to win (3.79)
Charlotte and Madison to win, Fuego v Omaha over 2.5 goals (5.35)
Pittsburgh v San Antonio, North Carolina v Colorado Springs, Las Vegas v Detroit all under 2.5 goals (5.70)
El Paso v Miami, Louisville v Sacramento and Oakland v Loudoun all BTTS (5.80)
Four or more Legs:
Charleston, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas, Birmingham all to win (14.89)
Rhode Island v Hartford, Charleston v Memphis, Louisville v Sacramento and Indy Eleven v New Mexico all over 2.5 goals (9.69)
Charleston, Charlotte, Madison and Louisville all to win (7.80)
Non-USL Related Bets:
Bet 1 - English Championship Matchday One
QPR v West Brom BTTS (1.90)
Cardiff to beat Sunderland (2.80)
Leeds v Portsmouth over 2.5 goals (1.60)
Sheffield Wednesday to beat Plymouth Argyle (1.80)
Parlay all four: 15.39
Bet 2 - USA WNT v Brazil WNT Gold Medal game
USWNT to win gold medal (1.40)
Under 2.5 goals (1.57)
Match decided in 90’ (1.85)
Parlay all three: 3.60
Bet 3: English Community Shield - Manchester City v Manchester United
Manchester City to win the Shield (1.33)
Over 2.5 goals (1.50)
BTTS (1.57)
Parlay all three: 2.40
Bet 4: NASCAR Cup Series - Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway
Denny Hamlin to finish top 3 (2.60)
Toyota winning manufacturer (2.00)
Joe Gibbs Racing winning team (1.95)
Final Thoughts
England’s league season is upon us as the Championship, League One and League Two begin this weekend. The English Championship is arguably the most chaotic league in Europe and the one league in England filled among the most random scorelines on any given weekend. It is one of the most unpredictable leagues to try to wager on but it is also one of the most fun leagues for goals. The promotion battle for the Championship to the Premier League is one of my favorite storylines to watch throughout the season. How will Leeds bottle promotion again? Here are some futures bets I like for the Championship as well:
Plymouth Argyle to finish bottom of the league 7.00
West Bromwich Albion to finish top six 3.00
Luton Town to win the Championship 11.00
Queen’s Park Rangers to finish top half 2.00
Sheffield Wednesday to finish above Sheffield United in the table 3.00
My predictions article for the Premier League should be posting next week where I go through and predict the entire table, the winners of the two domestic cups, the golden boot, the golden glove and more. I remain cautiously optimistic for Tottenham this year as I do at the start of every campaign. Welcome to Spurs, Dominic Solanke!
I am planning to write a college football prediction piece surrounding my East Carolina Pirates as we approach the start of that season as well. Here’s hoping ECU does better than their 2-10 season last year. I may also post a prediction piece for the entire FBS and each conference as well.
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.