USL Odds, August 1
Happy August, the summer has flown by.
It was a fun weekend in Portland, Maine last week for Portland Hearts of Pine v Pittsburgh Riverhounds, but I am glad to be back with the blog this week! Looking forward to a great weekend of soccer ahead, as the USLC has a shorter match schedule, while the USL1 continues forward with a full schedule of games. Furthermore, we have the USL2 national title game between Vermont Green FC and Ballard FC tomorrow as well!
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view these options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, August 1.
Elo Ratings
USL Championship
Tulsa v Loudoun
1.80 - 3.80 - 3.75
Don’t look now, but Tulsa have quietly been one of the stories of the season, and are in the midst of their best season in club history. Check out John Morrissey’s recent article talking with Tulsa’s manager, Luke Spencer, about the success the club has had this season. The Oklahoma club currently sit atop my Elo ratings for the West, in addition to their position atop the Western Conference table. Prior to their defeat in the Jagermeister Cup game last week, Tulsa were on a seven match unbeaten run. In the league alone, Tulsa have not lost in their last nine games played (eight of those nine games going over 1.5 goals, as well as eight of those nine games being BTTS). Loudoun however has fallen completely flat in recent weeks (is Phil Baki’s ‘LADS’ protocol back to reality?), as they have not won any of their last their last seven games played (last win coming on June 14th). While Loudoun has grabbed the opening goal in three of those seven games played, no wins in that time has been worrying.
Simple wager on this, back the red hot FC Tulsa to win with this match going over 1.5 total goals.
Bet: Tulsa ML, over 1.5 total goals (2.10)
Colorado Springs v Lexington
1.75 - 3.50 - 4.20
Lexington will feel very unlucky to have not picked up the win over in-state foes, Louisville, last week after leading at 87’, only for two stoppage concessions, to lose 1-2. But a chance to bounce back in the league awaits, as the Kentucky club are still unbeaten in their last five league games. A trip to Colorado Springs is on the schedule tonight, and it was their 2-1 win over the Switchbacks in June, that restored a lot of belief in me for this Lexington project. The last three matches in the league for Lexington (all away from home), have been under 1.5 goals. Colorado Springs’ form entering this match is recently encouraging, a pair of wins over Birmingham (USLC) and Texoma (Jagermeister), but the Switchbacks have not won a league game at home since June 14th.
I would actually lean more towards Lexington getting the result in this match, but I think the safer wager will be this game going under 2.5 goals. Add on Lexington double chance for 2.90 odds.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals (1.90)
Indy Eleven v Tampa Bay
2.15 - 3.30 - 3.00
In a matchup of two former NASL clubs, the Tampa Bay Rowdies carry an impressive unbeaten run over Indy Eleven, into this match. Tampa Bay have won their last three games played against Indy Eleven (outscoring them 8-1 in that time), and have not lost to Indy Eleven in any of their last nine meetings. The last time Indy Eleven beat Tampa Bay was September 2018, 2,501 days ago (or 57% of Jupiter’s orbit around the sun).
These two sides last met on June 25th, which saw the Rowdies get one of those aforementioned three wins in a row over Indy Eleven, 3-1 (in come-from-behind style). This match honestly strikes me as the toughest to pick in the USLC this weekend since both clubs appear to be in slightly similar fates in the league at the moment. However, there might be value in goals to be found in this match, BTTS seems like a fair option, the question is do you think Indy Eleven can finally overcome this hurdle and get their first win over Tampa Bay since Venom (2018) was in theaters?
Bet: BTTS (1.66)
Pittsburgh v Rhode Island
2.15 - 3.30 - 3.25
During the midweek, it looked like Pittsburgh were about to lose their first game at Highmark since May 31, but a wondergoal by Charles Ahl, rescued a draw against Miami FC, and extended the Riverhounds home unbeaten run against USL clubs to six games. The last team to beat Pittsburgh at home however, are their opponents tomorrow, Rhode Island FC (it was also Rhode Island’s last victory away from home). RIFC are off the back of two draws in 90’ against rivals, Hartford, but did advance in the Jagermeister Cup to the quarterfinals with that result. In the four previous meetings between these sides, there has not been a BTTS, with all games going under 2.5 goals (with three being under 1.5 goals).
I like to back the hosts at Highmark, and let’s pick this game to be low-scoring once more.
Bet: Pittsburgh win or tie, under 2.5 total goals (1.95)
Louisville v North Carolina
1.61 - 4.10 - 5.00
Arguably the match of Saturday for USL Championship, as it is a top four clash in the East between Louisville and North Carolina. In recent years, NCFC has represented a sort of thorn in the side of Louisville (not necessarily a thorn Louisville can’t easily overcome, just one that has made games more challenging than normal). Louisville has won six of the last seven meetings against North Carolina, but four of those games were BTTS and over 2.5 goals showing that NCFC does have some fight in them against Louisville. Three of these seven games were also featuring NCFC scoring the opening goal as well.
For the third meeting of these two clubs inside of 43 days, I think I am going to get back on the Louisville ML train, and let’s pick the hosts to score the opening goal as well.
Bet: Louisville ML, Louisville to score first (1.80)
El Paso v Las Vegas
1.61 - 4.00 - 5.00
El Paso, winners of just one of their last five league games played, could really use a result this weekend. While still in the heart of the playoff picture, they have dropped far enough down the table that a loss, with results elsewhere, could leave them more precariously close to the cutline. However, welcoming in Las Vegas, who are in the midst of a squad overhaul in the middle of the summer, might offer a bit of reprieve for the Texan club. Las Vegas, after having won three consecutive games across all competitions, has now lost three in a row, having been outscored 3-10 in that time (each time allowing the opening goal).
I would start to get really nervous for Locomotive if they are unable to win this match, but this Lights team seems to be a side in transition at the moment. Let’s back the hosts to win.
Bet: El Paso ML (1.61)
San Antonio v Sacramento
2.70 - 3.20 - 2.60
Homefield advantage has always been valuable in the Western Conference, none more evident than in this series. The home team of this matchup has gone unbeaten in each of the last eight games—September 2021 was the last time the visiting side took three points in a game. Sacramento enters this game as the team in better form right now, unbeaten in each of their last four games played, and on a streak of six hours (360’) since they last conceded a goal across all competitions—or enough time to watch the entirety of Star Wars: The Clone Wars Season 7 (including the one story arc that did not go anywhere) and still have an hour leftover. That being said, San Antonio has not lost a match since June and have not lost at home since May. We may be in for a real tight contest between two teams in the top four of the Western Conference.
This game strikes me as all the makings of a draw, but perhaps San Antonio might be the side finally break the scoring drought teams have had against Sacramento as of late. But, do you think Sacramento bucks the historical trend and gets a first road victory in this series since 2021?
Bet: Draw, Under 3.5 goals (3.75)
Phoenix v Birmingham
2.40 - 3.10 - 3.00
In weird history of this series, the visiting side has won each of the three previous meetings of the two clubs (two wins for Birmingham to take the advantage). But we are faced with two of the more inconsistent teams in the league right now, each very close to their conference’s playoff line—Phoenix above it currently, Birmingham below it. It was a 1-4 loss for Phoenix in the midweek against Orange County, while Birmingham’s last game was a a 2-1 win over Madison in the Cup, last Saturday.
This might be the match that finally sees the visiting team not walk away with all three points in this fixture, but the inconsistent form of each club concerns me. What I do think is worth backing, are goals—eight of Phoenix’s last nine games have been BTTS (seven of which went over 2.5 goals) while Birmingham has three of their last four games being BTTS. Let’s root for a high-scoring affair in USLC After Dark.
Bet: BTTS, Over 2.5 total goals (2.05)
USL1
Westchester v Chattanooga
2.10 - 3.70 - 2.75
That’s right, the Chattanooga Red Wolves are the current top club in USL1 as per my Elo ratings (and sit in second of the league table). The Red Wolves have had a trademarked challenging to play against style of play this season, which has made under 2.5 goals wagers more likely. Westchester on the other hand has dragged teams into some high-scoring games this season, winning those games has been the issue though. In eight of Westchester’s last eleven games played against USL1 opposition, the game has gone over 2.5 goals (but just one victory that was not awarded to them, in that time).
Chattanooga has started scoring multiple goals in games as of late, two of their last four games has seen the Red Wolves score multiple goals. Who you believe scores the opening goal for this match, should drive your decision-making on who walks away with the result. Westchester has done their previous “score first, fail to win” routine before, which leads me into thinking the Red Wolves get the result here.
Bet: Chattanooga win or tie (1.60)
Though Westchester to score first and fail to win are odds of 5.50.
Madison v AV Alta
2.00 - 3.50 - 3.00
Likely the most challenging game to predict of the weekend for USL1. A win for Madison would take them back into the heart of the playoff race while AV Alta could find themselves atop the league with a win and other results going their way. In a first ever meeting between both clubs, the opening goal is going to be very crucial for this match. Madison have not lost any of the four previous goals in which they scored first, compared to AV Alta not losing any of the nine previous games where they scored the opening goal.
This match might be a great one to live bet, and quickly jump on a wager for the team who scores first, if you are watching. But for pre-match wagers, I am backing the visitors to score first.
Bet: AV Alta to score first (2.25)
Charlotte v Texoma
1.50 - 3.90 - 5.25
This might be the most clear ‘over 2.5 total goals’ wager of the weekend in both leagues. The last two meetings between these clubs have seen a combined 12 goals (an even 6-6 split each) and wins for each club. But this is Texoma’s first ever trip to Charlotte for this weekend’s fixture. I still am wanting bet365 to make “BTTS” wagers available for USL1 as this would be an immediate choice for me in this match. That being said, over 2.5 goals should be safe for this game, and I’m backing the hosts to hold onto the result as well.
Bet: Charlotte win or tie, over 2.5 goals (1.80)
Knoxville v Portland
1.90 - 3.40 - 3.75
Knoxville were part of a really fun 2-2 draw with Charlotte in the midweek where they had scored the opening goal and held on to avoid a loss for the ninth time this season. In fact, July 2023 was the last time Knoxville scored the opening goal and lost the game (a 2-3 defeat to Chattanooga). Portland meanwhile are unbeaten in their last five games across all competitions and has scored the opening goal in four of those five games. If there was an option for BTTS, this would be the match for me to take it in. That being said, I think backing this match to end in a draw is going to be my move.
Bet: Draw (3.40)
Richmond v Naples
3.00 - 3.20 - 2.30
Oh Richmond, this team is entering this game low on confidence and in woeful form. The Kickers have not won any of their previous four games played, and have been outscored 0-10 in that (ironically coming off a four goal performance in the last match before this goal-scoring drought). Richmond have not scored in the last 399’ played (or 6 hours and 33 minutes)—the equivalent of driving Richmond to New York City, exactly (if you use toll roads). This match should see Naples have the advantage, but do you think Richmond extends their misery in front of goal, or will they finally breakthrough and get a goal?
I think Richmond score in this match, Naples have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last twelve games against USL1 clubs. But I do think Naples are still the better team to see out a result.
Bet: Naples win or tie, Over 2.5 goals (2.50)
Though Naples ML at 2.30 odds might be enough on their own.
Tormenta v Greenville
2.70 - 3.30 - 2.37
One of the earliest matchups in USL1 history, this series has been even in their previous 23 games played, ten wins each and three draws. Their last six meetings have all gone over 2.5 goals too. A win for Greenville could take them into the playoff picture, while a result for Tormenta would bring them level on points with the Triumph. In the last three road games for Greenville, they have gone over 2.5 total goals in each of them, the same can be said about Tormenta’s last three home games. A result should lean the way of Greenville personally, but keeping it safe and picking over 2.5 goals.
Bet: Over 2.5 total goals (1.80)
Spokane v Omaha
2.15 - 3.25 - 3.20
It’s August and amazingly, this is the first meeting between Spokane and Omaha since Omaha’s triumph in the 2024 USL1 playoff final, last season. But, what has happened in the nine months since then, may shock anyone who was leaving the last meeting of these two clubs. Omaha has lost Casciato to Tampa Bay, and sit rock bottom of the league, while Spokane has carried on the momentum of last season and currently lead the league table at the moment. That being said, it’s been a rough few weeks for the Washington club, no wins since June 21, and had to forfeit a game in that time along with a 0-3 loss to Chattanooga—it’s seen the Velocity tumble out of the top spot of my Elo ratings unsurprisingly.
In their six previous games against USL1 clubs, Omaha have seen those games go over 2.5 goals in each of them. Much like the San Antonio v Sacramento match from USLC, the home team has been on quite the run in this series, with no wins from the visitors in the history of this matchup (with no draws in that time too). Let’s back history for the goals, and pick Spokane to get back on the right track with a win this weekend.
Bet: Spokane ML, Over 2.5 goals (3.50)
USL2 National Title Game:
Vermont Green FC v Ballard FC
No odds as of writing (this match might show up day of the game, tomorrow)
This is it! The national final for USL2 is tomorrow night and another great season and thrilling playoffs for the league is reaching a conclusion. The story of the playoffs has to be Vermont Green’s magical run to the final (and their incredible posters for each round), while Ballard FC will not go quietly in this game as they are seeking their second national USL2 title in three seasons. A win for the visitors would put them tied for the second most titles in league history (with two) and among esteemed company as Des Moines Menace and Ventura County Fusion. It’s a sold out crowd for the match tomorrow!
Vermont Green enters this match looking to complete an unbeaten season and in front of their home fans for the final, there is something magical about that moment and it’s hard not to get swept up in the majesty of the opportunity that Vermont has on their hands. The travel across the country will be a challenge for the Washington based Ballard FC no doubt, which is why I am backing the hosts to get the win in this match and lifting their first ever USL2 title.
Bet: Vermont ML
Parlays
ML Parlay:
Tulsa, Louisville ML (2.90)
Charlotte, Spokane ML (3.22)
BTTS or Over/Under 2.5 goals Parlay:
Charlotte v Texoma, Richmond v Naples, Tormenta v Greenville all over 2.5 goals (5.08)
Westchester v Chattanooga and Knoxville v Portland both under 2.5 goals (3.67)
Indy Eleven v Tampa Bay and Phoenix v Birmingham each BTTS (2.69)
Tulsa v Loudoun over 1.5 goals and Louisville v North Carolina over 2.5 goals (2.10)
Underdog Parlay:
Lexington win or tie and Chattanooga win or tie (3.05)
Kaylor Hodges ™ No-Draws in USLC Parlay: 7.07 (with just eight USLC games this weekend, perhaps this is the weekend it happens haha)
Non-USL Related Bets:
European competitive matches are starting to return again!
Other Soccer:
Leagues Cup
NYCFC v Leon and Columbus v Puebla each BTTS (2.61)
Toluca and LAFC ML (2.76)
Miami and Real Salt Lake ML (2.46)
Chivas Guadalajara ML and 1.5 total goals (2.25)
Scotland
Rangers, Hibernian and Celtic ML (2.99)
Falkirk v Dundee United BTTS, Motherwell v Rangers over 1.5 total goals (2.00)
Raith Rovers and Inverness CT ML (2.27)
East Kilbride ML (1.66)
England
Cardiff City ML (1.66) - Cardiff should be the top club of League One this year, in my opinion
MK Dons ML (1.61)
Other Sports:
Friday’s MLB
Brewers ML (1.66)
Astros ML (1.76)
Yankees ML and Over 7.5 total runs (3.03)
Bellinger and McMahon (both NY) 1+ total bases each (2.00)
Tigers at Phillies
Schwarber over 0.5 total bases (1.66)
Pirates at Rockies
Over 11.5 total runs (1.86)
Horwitz over 1.5 total bases, Reynolds 1+ hits (2.20)
Saturday’s MLB
Braves vs Reds - This game is being held at Bristol Motor Speedway! An intersection of two of my favorite sports interests, the Cincinnati Reds and NASCAR.
Over 8 total runs (1.90)
Braves ML (1.76)
Formula 1 - Hungarian Grand Prix
Qualifying
Norris to beat Piastri h2h (1.66)
Hadjar to win a group of himself, Stroll, Tsunoda and Albon (2.10)
Tsunoda to reach Q3 (2.25)
Red Bull both cars to reach Q3 (2.30)
Race
Hadjar points finish (1.90)
Norris to win outright (2.00)
Williams both cars to be classified - No (2.75)
NASCAR - Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol (yes, that’s the full race name)
Picks made before qualifying
Toyota winning manufacturer (2.70)
Chase Briscoe top ten finish (1.80)
Christopher Bell top five finish (1.80)
Bubba Wallace to beat Kyle Busch h2h (1.95)
William Byron to beat Tyler Reddick h2h (1.50)
Kyle Larson to win a group of himself, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Joey Logano (2.30)
Final Thoughts
Portland, Maine was a lot of fun last weekend! It was wonderful to finally meet Phil Baki and John Morrissey in person! When I say we talked sports and movies the entire time, we talked sports and movies the entire time on the trip. Portland Hearts of Pine was a fantastic visit, what they have building at Fitzpatrick Stadium is something special and will no doubt continue to grow in the next few months and seasons to come. Thank you to Hearts of Pine for their hospitality to us at The USL Show, you’ve gained a fan from me. Be on the lookout for our video recaps from the matchday experience and thank you to everyone who tuned into our live pre-game and post-game show, it means a lot to us all! Check out interview with Portland president, Kevin Schohl!
It’s been a fantastic year for movies here in 2025. I was looking back through my Letterboxd account and realized that I had seen 8 movies that have come out in 2025, already. I have to say that my favorite film of the year so far has been the Ballad of Wallis Island (2025) which was just a delightful watch really. Check it out on Peacock. My most recent watch was Fantastic Four: The First Steps and I definitely want to check out The Naked Gun next!
With college football starting this month, let me know if there would be any interest in a “college football preview” for futures for the season ahead. I will of course include my weekly college football wagers in the article once the season starts, but if people are interested in my season-long predictions, feel free to let me know!
As of hitting publish on this article, I have done 14,519 steps today as I began this morning with a five mile run. A great start to my Friday!
Follow me on Bluesky @ilm-ryan.bsky.social and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.bsky.social.