May 25th, USL Odds
A three day weekend with lots of options across USL Championship and another round of Jagermeister Cup matches to watch.
Hope you have started your Memorial Day well and will get a chance to enjoy having three days off this weekend with plenty of sports—of course USL—to wager on as we move into the days of summer. We had another week of US Open Cup matches midweek, as we move back to into USLC league games and another exciting round of the Jagermeiester Cup for USL1.
As always, make all wagers at your own discretion, any bet you make should be made at your own risk. Only view this options below as potential choices to bet.
All odds were from Bet365 as of Friday, May 24th.
Previous Week Recap:
Here are the bets that paid off from last week’s article:
El Paso v Memphis over 2.5 goals (1.80), Indy Eleven to win and over 2 total goals (2.25), Tampa Bay v Tulsa over 1.5 goals (1.16), Oakland v Orange County BTTS (1.83), Phoenix to win 2-0 (7.00), Greenville to win or tie v Richmond (1.36), Tormenta to win v Chattanooga | Omaha, Knoxville and Greenville to win parlay (10.53) | Arsenal, Newcastle, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Tottenham all to win (6.28)
Elo Ratings
*Note: USL1 Elo ratings are for league matches only.
USL Championship
Friday
Charleston v El Paso
1.36 - 4.50 - 6.50
El Paso was briefly in the same arena as the likes of Juventus, Bayern Munich and Barcelona in looking for a manager. They have found their next boss in the likes of Wilmer Cabrera, the former RGVFC manager. However, as I had mentioned in a previous post, the new manager bounce did not work any magic last season when teams made the change. I expect Charleston to continue to roll forward this week and win this one with multiple goals scored.
Bet: Charleston to win and over 2 total goals (2.00)
Hartford v Monterey Bay
2.00 - 3.75 - 2.87
Both of these teams have had the issue of conceding goals at will this season, Hartford are allowing 2.22 goals a game vs 1.36 from Monterey Bay. Last season’s match saw a thrilling 5-3 match going the way of Monterey Bay. This being one of the longest road trips a team can make it challenging on which sides show up for the visitors. Both teams are without wins in their last four games—Hartford have lost their five matches, being outscored 16-2 in that time. I could see this match being a game of sloppy defending.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.57)
Tulsa v Oakland
2.05 - 3.60 - 2.87
Oakland picked up their first win under interim manager, Gavin Glinton last week with a come from behind 2-1 win over Orange County. Since Glinton taking over, at the start of the month, Oakland has scored in every match. Tulsa has scored in every home game played this season, but I think Oakland’s odds to win and BTTS are more favorable, but this match result could be a coinflip.
Bet: Oakland to win, BTTS (6.00)
Saturday
Rhode Island v Louisville
3.40 - 3.50 - 1.90
Louisville are averaging 3.11 goals a game and seven of their nine games this year have been over 2.5 goals. Meanwhile, Rhode Island have been involved in six league matches this year with over 2.5 goals. I am going to go one further this week and pick this match to be over 3.5 goals, largely off the effort of Louisville’s skill in attack.
Bet: Over 3.5 goals (2.50)
Indy Eleven v Phoenix
2.05 - 3.80 - 2.75
Indy Eleven are the second best in-form team in USLC right now—behind Charleston—with four wins and a draw in their last five games. Many of the Indy Eleven matches have been high-scoring this year, 10/11 Indy Eleven games this year have been BTTS, with 8 of those games being over 2.5 goals. Phoenix meanwhile has scored in each of their last 7 league games. Indy Eleven should continue their good form in a match I could see being high-scoring.
Bet: Indy Eleven to win, BTTS, over 2 total goals (4.00)
Miami v North Carolina
3.70 - 3.90 - 1.72
If there was ever a match this season that screamed draw, it would be Miami v North Carolina right now. In all-time meetings, even in NASL meetings, these teams have drawn matches between each other (four) as many times as there had been a winner (two wins each). If I had to pick a winner, I’d lean North Carolina, but I’m not totally convinced either team can effectively score this season, so possibly adding an under 3 goals bet to this match could be worth it.
Bet: North Carolina win or tie, under 3 total goals (2.70)
Tampa Bay v Las Vegas
1.40 - 4.33 - 5.75
Las Vegas showed last week that the team can put in a spirited display when called upon, grinding out a 2-2 draw against one the league’s best teams in Louisville. However, given that Tampa Bay just stuck five goals past Tulsa last week, I imagine the Rowdies will be up for this match and will look to capitalize on another strong performance.
Bet: Tampa Bay to win by 2 or more goals (2.05)
Memphis v Pittsburgh
2.20 - 3.50 - 2.62
Pittsburgh has never lost a match played in Memphis against 901 FC, outscoring the Tennessee club 7-1 in that time. Riverhounds are riding a seven match unbeaten run, while Memphis are on four matches unbeaten themselves (all games over 2.5 goals too). Just given the historical series results, I would back Pittsburgh in this match especially if they are underdogs, but Memphis will be a tough opponent.
Bet: Pittsburgh to win (2.62)
New Mexico v San Antonio
2.25 - 3.25 - 2.80
Strangely, this game has been marked by “win to nil” results historically, eight of the eleven all-time meetings between these teams featured one side winning and maintaining a clean sheet. The first BTTS match of this series was not until 2021 (first meeting came in 2019). San Antonio have scored in their last four league games while New Mexico have scored in three of their last four league games.
Bet: New Mexico win or tie, BTTS (2.05)
Orange County v Loudoun
1.83 - 3.60 - 3.50
Loudoun’s travel legs must be exhausted by now, having visited California for the third time across all competitions this season—two league games, against Sacramento and now Orange County, and the midweek USOC match v LAFC. With their opponents racking in the frequent flyer miles, I have to bet Orange County to win just based on being able to play at home and rest their players for this one.
Bet: Orange County to win to nil (3.25)
Sacramento v Birmingham
1.65 - 3.50 - 4.33
In two all-time meetings, Birmingham are weirdly unbeaten against Sacramento, a 1-1 draw last season and a 1-0 win away at Sacramento in 2022. Sacramento are the last remaining unbeaten team left in the Western Conference, and only two teams in the league—Charleston and Louisville—have allowed fewer goals than Republic this season so far. Given a usual stout defensive performance Republic under Mark Briggs is known for, I expect Sacramento to get their first ever win against Birmingham and to pick up a clean sheet as well.
Bet: Sacramento win 2-0 (8.00)
USL1 - Jagermeister Cup
Remember, all Jagermeiester matches go to a penalty shootout and the tiebreakers for these games encourage goals.
Madison v Knoxville
1.90 - 3.50 - 3.30
This match might be the best defensive showcase in USL this weekend. Each team are averaging under 1.0 goals conceded this year (0.83 for Madison, 0.50 for Knoxville). This match has seen two nil-nil results in their series history, but with Madison unbeaten in all league games played still this season, which is why I lean towards Madison to get a result in this one.
Bet: Madison to win (1.90)
Chattanooga v Lexington
1.90 - 3.60 - 3.20
A pair of clubs with just five goals scored in the league this season so far. Due to weird scheduling quirks, Lexington will have played three Jagermeiester Cup matches in a row since their last league game, while Chattanooga has played more matches in the Open Cup and Jagermeiester Cup than they have USL1 games. When both teams are struggling like these, picking each to score seems safe.
Bet: BTTS
Tormenta v Richmond
1.75 - 3.60 - 3.80
When this match is played in Statesboro, goals are often on the cards, five of the seven all-time meetings between these two teams when Tormenta hosts has seen BTTS, and three of those over 2.5 goals. Tormenta are averaging 1.75 goals a game this season while Richmond have conceded on average 1.86 goals in the league.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.53)
Northern Colorado v Charlotte Independence
No odds as of writing
In the six all-time meetings between these two teams, there has yet to be a draw, with the home team winning five of those six matches (including the last four). I would certainly lean towards Hailstorm in this one, and given that each of the last six games between these teams have been not only BTTS, but over 2.5 goals, this could be a goal fest of a match to behold.
Bet: Northern Colorado to win, over 2.5 goals
Spokane v Greenville
2.50 - 3.40 - 2.40
Having to lick their wounds after a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Madison last week, Spokane will look to regroup this week as they welcome Greenville to the Pacific northwest. Greenville’s defeats this season have all come from away from home, and there is a chance the trip across the country is tougher than expected. Spokane could use a statement win like their result over Omaha a few weeks, again.
Bet: Spokane to win (2.50)
Parlays
Three Legs
Charleston, Louisville and Tampa Bay all to win (3.62)
Sacramento, Orange County, New Mexico all to win (6.80)
Madison, Lexington and Spokane all to win (15.27)
Round Robin x2
All games BTTS: Hartford v Monterey Bay, New Mexico v San Antonio, Indy Eleven v Phoenix, Rhode Island v Louisville (Bet $6 to return $15.08)
All games over 2.5 goals: Chattanooga v Lexington, Tormenta v Richmond, Spokane v Greenville, Madison v Knoxville (Bet $6 to return $16.97)
Four Legs or more
Charleston, Louisville, Tampa Bay, Indy Eleven to all win (7.43)
Sacramento, Orange County, Charleston, Tampa Bay, Madison all to win (11.02)
All games over 2.5 goals: Charleston v El Paso, Indy Eleven v Phoenix, Rhode Island v Louisville, Tampa Bay v Las Vegas, New Mexico v San Antonio, Tormenta v Richmond (18.23)
Non-USL Related Bets
Bet 1: United Kingdom parlay, Celtic to win Scottish Cup in 90’, Manchester City to win FA Cup in 90’ and Southampton to win the Championship final in 90’ (7.89)
Kyle Larson Bets:
Bet 2: Kyle Larson to finish in the top three of both Indy 500 and Coke 600 (6.72)
Bet 3: Kyle Larson to win the Indy 500 and Coke 600 (47.25)
*Note, the third bet for Kyle Larson are absolute long shot, storybook type of odds that would be highly unlikely to occur.
Sunday, May 26th is my favorite day of the year for motorsports. It begins with the Monaco Grand Prix in the morning, then the Indy 500 in the afternoon, before the prime-time Coke 600 for Nascar in the evening. Kyle Larson is going to compete in both the Indy 500 and Coke 600 for a full day of 1,100 miles raced all said and done. I had mentioned it on the USL Show this week, but it is a fantastic day of watching motorsports on tv.
Follow me on Twitter at @ILM_Ryan and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow.