April 13, USL Bets
Another week of USL action with more betting odds to share.
The season rolls on into the middle of April and I have a new slate of USL games to preview bets for this weekend. In a weekend full of teams looking to jumpstart their season, continue good runs of form, and the most iconic derby in USL1, it is a full schedule of intriguing games for the weekend.
As always, make any bets at your own risk and discretion. Do not bet anything that you cannot afford to lose.
Furthermore, my bet selections below should be seen as intriguing options of wagers, rather than a concrete, ironclad selection of an outcome. Take each bet with a healthy dose of risk.
All odds are as of Bet365 on Friday, April 12th and are in decimal format (2.00 odds or higher would net a return higher than just your initial bet).
Previous week recap:
To highlight two bets that paid off last week, Hartford v Miami over 3 total goals (2.37) and Richmond v Central Valley Fuego over 3 total goals (2.50) both occurred on the previous week.
Elo Ratings for USLC and USL1
Each year, I keep track of the Elo ratings for the teams in the USLC and USL1, to use as a way to “power rank” the teams throughout the season. It is based on the same formula used to rank national teams, and I have found it to be an interesting way to evaluate where teams are performing relative to their table position. Below are the overall ratings for both the Championship and League One. In USLC, 1100 is considered an average rating, while USL1 has an average rating of 1000.
USL Championship
Loudoun United v Memphis 901 FC
Loudoun Untied has never beaten Memphis 901 FC in a home match in the history of this matchup. However, every time this matchup has had a victor in a match, it has been won by the visiting side (including the last two matches which saw Loudoun win on the road in Memphis). 901 FC are on a three match losing streak at the moment and I could see a Loudoun United victory on Saturday afternoon.
Bet: Loudoun to win (2.60)
Indy Eleven v Charleston Battery
Dating back to last season, Indy Eleven have seen eight of their last nine games played with over 2.5 goals scored (and in that same run of form, both teams have scored in seven of those meetings). The Battery have scored multiple goals in three of their five matches this season as Tuesday’s win over Louisville took Charleston atop the Eastern Conference
Bet: Charleston to win, BTTS (4.50)
Rhode Island v Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Rhode Island are still looking for their first win in front of their home crowd, while Pittsburgh are still looking for their first win in the season. An uncanny start the season for the defending Shield winners in the Riverhounds sees them rooted at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. It’s a game Pittsburgh cannot afford to lose and one Rhode Island will want to win.
Bet: Exact score, Rhode Island 1-1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds (6.50)
San Antonio FC v Orange County SC
Dating back to 2016, this matchup has seen nine matches that featured a clean sheet (with two games in 2019 being 0-0 draws). In spite of their uncharacteristic defeat to Las Vegas last week, San Antonio has scored at least two goals in every other match played this season. Orange County meanwhile, has begun the year with three clean sheet wins and a pair of 2-2 draws. This might be OC’s best chance to win a match in San Antonio for the first time since 2016.
Bet: Over 3.5 goals total (2.75)
El Paso Locomotive v Oakland Roots
The five all-time meetings between these two teams have seen at least two goals scored combined in the game, in four of those matches. Weirdly, Oakland are unbeaten against Locomotive in games played in El Paso (two wins and a draw). With both teams desperate to jumpstart their slow opening portions of the season, I could see this match being a cagey affair. Oakland also have not won a road match since August 23, 2023 (five defeats away from home since then).
Bet: Under 2.5 goals scored (1.95)
Monterey Bay v Las Vegas Lights
A pair of teams who have begun the year as a surprise package to start. Las Vegas are off the pack of three consecutive clean sheet victories for the first time since 2022—mind you Las Vegas won just three matches all season in 2023. While Monterey Bay has seen a start to the season where they have scored in each of their five games played to begin the year.
Bet: Monterey Bay to win, BTTS, Las Vegas under 3 goals scored (4.75)
Sacramento Republic v FC Tulsa
Sacramento has never lost to FC Tulsa in any meeting all time between these two clubs. 9 wins and 3 draws since 2015. In nine of those twelve meetings, Republic scored multiple goals in the match. This Sacramento team has began the year unbeaten through five games, while Tulsa are off the back of a 3-3 thrilling draw with Phoenix.
Bet: Sacramento to win by exactly 2 goals (4.50)
Phoenix Rising v Colorado Springs Switchbacks
Phoenix has not lost to Colorado Springs at home since the US Open Cup third round in June of 2016. The Switchbacks have begun the year on four straight defeats, having been shutout in three of those occasions—Colorado Springs are on their worst start to a season in club history. The Switchbacks had a six match losing streak in the middle of last season, as well. Phoenix similarly have been shutout in three defeats to start the year, but found their goal-scoring form with a 3-3 draw against Tulsa last week.
Bet: Phoenix win to nil, score in both halves (6.00)
North Carolina FC v Birmingham Legion
There has only been one draw in the seven all-time meetings between these two teams. Interestingly, the away side seems to do rather well within this matchup, as the visiting team has won four those matches all-time (including the last three meetings).
Bet: Double Chance North Carolina or Birmingham to win, BTTS (no odds as of writing)
USL League One
Forward Madison v Richmond Kickers
The Henny Derby’s first meeting of the season is being hosted by one of the league’s most challenging defenses to break down in Forward Madison, who have only conceded one goal on the season, after beginning the year on a three match road trip. Richmond meanwhile won their first match since July 2023 last week.
In the 14 all-time meetings between these two foes, eleven of those matches saw under 3 goals, and only once has since this fixture seen over 3 goals in a match.
Bet: Forward Madison to win, under 3 total goals (4.20)
Central Valley Fuego v Chattanooga Red Wolves
Central Valley Fuego has scored first in the last three meetings against Chattanooga (despite posting a record of 1-1-1 in those three meetings). Three of Fuego’s five goals in the league have come in the first half. If they are going to score, I would reckon it is comes before halftime. Conversely, Chattanooga has played one USL1 match thus far this season, which makes any bet on them an unknown.
Bet: Central Valley Fuego first team to score (2.25)
Lexington SC v Spokane Velocity FC
Despite lofty preseason hype—which may or may not have been deserved in retrospect—Lexington is reaching a point in the season where they should be finding their panic button off the back of three defeats in USL1 play in a row. Spokane meanwhile, have yet to win a USL1 match away from home, particularly when they have to travel cross-country (with a pair of 2-1 defeats against Greenville and Charlotte). However, Spokane has scored in every match they’ve played in club history and Lexington has been leaking goals lately.
Bet: Spokane to win, over 3 total goals (7.00)
USL Four Leg Results Straight Parlay Bet:
Charleston, Sacramento, Phoenix and Madison to win (8.70)
USL Round Robin Four Leg Parlay bet:
Loudoun v Memphis over 1.5 goals, Indy Eleven v Charleston over 2.5 goals, San Antonio v Orange County over 2.5 goals, Monterey Bay v Las Vegas over 2.5 goals
Wager $6 ($1 on each parlay option) to win $17.16
Two Non-USL Related Bets:
Bet #1: Manchester United to win v Bournemouth and BTTS (4.00)
Bet #2: Motherwell v Hibernian BTTS, over 3 goals (3.20)
Find me on Twitter @ILM_Ryan, and follow the USL Show, @theUSLshow!